Egypt parades military might in face of Israeli plan to transfer Gaza's population

Quite symbolic

The symbolism of the Egyptian leader's choice to attend and order the live broadcast of the military inspection of the Fourth Armoured Division is significant.

The division was formed in the mid-1950s to serve the operational needs of the Egyptian army at the time. It participated in the three wars Egypt fought against Israel, namely in 1956, 1967 and 1973, and the war for the liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991.

It played an especially significant role in the 1973 war, having guarded the crossing of Egyptian army troops from the western bank of the Suez Canal to its eastern bank on the road to Sinai.

The division also foiled what came to be known as 'Operation Gazelle', an Israeli multidivisional counterattack aiming at encircling the Third Egyptian Army in Suez between 15 and 23 October 1973, exploiting a gap between the Second and Third armies.

This division is the most important in Egypt's Third Field Army.

It has a trove of accumulated combat experiences that qualify it to carry out its mission of protecting the Suez Canal, the cities overlooking the international waterway, and – if necessary – the Sinai against aggressions or dangers.

Third Army Commander, Gen. Sherif al-Arieshi, spoke eloquently about his troops standing ready to repel any dangers away from Egypt's borders by saying: "We are in our highest state of combat readiness".

In front of him, the line-up of equipment within the division bespoke its giant size, capabilities and reach.

Read more: Netanyahu call for Palestinians to "leave" Gaza raises alarm in Egypt

Psyched up

This is only one division of Egypt's army — the most powerful in the Arab and African regions.

Egypt has demonstrated its categorical rejection of the liquidation of the Palestinian issue through the transfer of Gaza's population of over 2 million to Sinai in all forms and repeatedly since Israel started its military campaign on the blockaded territory on 7 October.

Read more: Why Egypt rejects a Palestinian population transfer from Gaza

El-Sisi even warned that this planned transfer would put Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel in jeopardy.

He reiterated his country's rejection of turning parts of Sinai into a refugee camp — even a temporary one — for the Palestinians of Gaza in a phone conversation with US President, Joe Biden, on 29 October.

"Egypt will not allow the transfer of Gaza's residents to its territories," the Egyptian leader told his American counterpart.

He continued to rule out any discussion of the transfer of the Gazans to Egypt several times in the past days since the eruption of Israel's war on Gaza, delivering the message clearly to all Western leaders and diplomats he met and spoke with on the phone.

On 31 October, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly addressed the Sinai tribal chieftains and Bedouin during a gathering, marking the launch of a new stage of the development of North Sinai.

"Millions of Egyptians are ready to sacrifice their lives for each grain of sand on Sinai's land," the Egyptian premier said to a cheering crowd.

"Egypt will never allow anything to be imposed on it," he added.

Deep reasons

The remarks made by el-Sisi during the 25 October parade offer deep insights into the Egyptian national security strategy.

The Egyptian leader said the army's mission is to protect Egyptian territories and safeguard Egyptian borders. He added, however, that Egypt always addresses the problems it faces in a rational manner and with patience.

"We want to achieve what is possible without any recourse to violence," the Egyptian president said, addressing the troops lined up in the parade.

In a way, this highlights the Egyptian deterrence strategy in the face of the dangers Egypt increasingly faces.

In the past few years, Egypt spent billions of dollars on the modernisation of its army and the diversification of its sources of armament — a move that irked Washington — especially given the fact that Egypt sourced some of its weapons, including some of the fighter jets within its air force, from Russia.

Read more: How decades of conflict with Israel has hindered economic development in the Arab world

The funds the Egyptian administration invested in the modernisation of the military, including through the purchase of submarines and a wide range of naval units, also came under fire inside Egypt, with a segment of the Egyptian public viewing this as an 'unnecessary spendthrift', while the Egyptian economy faced challenges.

The same modernisation, a retired Egyptian army general said, is necessary for the army to have the required deterrence against any dangers.

"We cannot preserve the peace or the integrity of our territories without the necessary military force," Gen. Alaa Ezz Eddin, the former head of the Strategic Studies Centre of the Egyptian Armed Forces, told Al Majalla.

"The same force makes Egypt well-positioned to defend its security and territories," he added.

Fears over permanent displacement

The Egyptian reaction to the proposal to kick the Gazans out of their territory has been firm, decisive and unequivocal.

El-Sisi even suggested that Israel move the Gazans to the Negev Desert until it achieves its claimed goal of obliterating Hamas.

Nevertheless, some of those watching, especially from outside Egypt, find it difficult to understand the logic behind the Egyptian position.

Egypt has been a staunch backer of the Palestinians and their just cause over the years, having sacrificed tens of thousands of lives in its wars against Israel and missed out on tremendous economic opportunities because of these wars.

Judging by history and full awareness of the plans concocted in Tel Aviv, the Egyptians know that the proposed relocation of the Gazans will mean their permanent displacement and the total loss of Palestinian statehood dreams.

Cairo knows that the expulsion of Palestinians in Gaza will be followed by the expulsion of Palestinians from the Israeli-occupied West Bank, along with Palestinian citizens of Israel, to Jordan.

This, as el-Sisi put it at a press briefing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Cairo on 18 October, would mean that there would be no land where the Palestinians could establish their state.

Read more: Palestinians in Gaza in the midst of a modern-day Nakba

Territory integrity of paramount importance

But this is only one aspect of the Egyptian position.

Territorial integrity is, to Egyptians, a matter of honour and dignity, observers in Cairo say.

"This is especially true of Sinai, a territory of paramount importance for Egypt and its national security," Akram Badr Eddin, a political science professor at Cairo University, told Al Majalla.

This puts the Egyptian premier's remarks on 31 October into context.

Egypt also has a wide range of other political and security reasons for refusing Palestinian refugees, even temporarily.

These reasons include Egyptian fears of turning Sinai into a new launch pad for operations against Israel. This scenario opens the door wide for a new military confrontation with the Israeli army.

Cairo — which paid dearly for the liberation of Sinai from Islamist militancy in the past ten years — cannot accept this territory becoming fertile soil for militancy to take root and grow yet again.

This would be a nightmare not only for Egypt but also for the world, given Sinai's proximity to the Suez Canal and the vital international trade route it is.

These reasons demonstrate Egypt's readiness to fight — a position held not only by the government but by the Egyptian street as well.