Politics

Ukraine offensive makes waves in the Black Sea

The objective of the offensive is to remove the threat of cruise missiles, but also to allow for the safe resumption of maritime traffic in the Black Sea, following the collapse of the Grain Initiative in July

Majalla/Agencies

Moscow's edge over Kyiv has been its naval power, as Ukraine has virtually no navy. But over the past few weeks, a successful Ukrainian offensive has helped tip the scales in the conflict.

Ukraine offensive makes waves in the Black Sea

Michael Horowitz

last update on 26 Sep 2023

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a fight in the Black Sea was not exactly in everyone’s minds. The military balance was always tipped (on paper, at least) in Russia’s favour. But nowhere did Moscow have a greater edge than at sea, as Ukraine has virtually no navy.

And yet, over the past weeks, Ukraine has been waging a daring military campaign in the Black Sea to remove Russia’s naval chokehold on the country.

The campaign culminated with a major missile attack against the Black Sea headquarters in Sevastopol, one that may have killed dozens of Russian officers — though a Ukrainian claim that the head of the Black Sea Fleet himself was killed may have proven inaccurate — and another against the local shipyards.

The latter was particularly devastating, as Ukrainian forces launched missile attacks, which led to catastrophic damage to two Russian ships: The Kilo class “Rostov on-Don” submarine, and the Ropucha-class “Minsk” landing ship.

Images of the aftermath show the ships are unlikely to be salvageable. This was the first time Russia lost a submarine in combat since the Second World War.

This was an unprecedented strike targeting two critical assets of the Russian fleet. The Kilo-class submarine could be used to approach Ukrainian coasts and fire cruise missiles deep inside Ukraine without being as exposed as a surface ship.

Last year, Russia learned the cost of getting too close to Ukraine’s coasts. In April, Moscow sent its Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, in range of Ukrainian missiles, ignoring signs that Ukraine had developed a new naval missile capable of hitting Russian ships approaching Ukrainian coasts. The Moskva ended up at the bottom of the sea.

AFP — This handout video grab taken and released by the Russian Defence Ministry on February 18, 2022, shows a "Moskva" Russian cruiser during the Black Sea naval exercises outside the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

OTD, one year ago, the Russian Slava-class cruiser "Moskva", the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was hit by two Ukrainian Neptun missiles. The extensive damage of the ship caused her sinking one day later.
The sinking of the Moskva eventually led to a total withdrawal... pic.twitter.com/sPd7CmBlKm
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 13, 2023

Killing three birds with one stone

As winter approaches and Russia will likely resume attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, removing one small but important launchpad is more than just a symbolic victory.

Similarly, with the Ropucha-class landing ship, Ukraine struck gold. As their name suggests, these ships are designed to carry out landings and could have been used for the capture of the Ukrainian port of Odesa.

This threat is now remote, given that Russian troops are overextended and how complex and exposed such landings are. But this doesn’t mean landing ships have suddenly become useless.

They are, in fact, used by Russia as logistical ships transporting material and vehicles across the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. They bring vital equipment to Russian troops fighting off the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in southern Ukraine.

Perhaps as important is the third target: The Sevastopol drydocks, which are used for repairs and maintenance. Although the drydocks themselves do not appear to have sustained heavy damage, they may still have been put out of use in the near term.

As winter approaches and Russia will likely resume attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, removing one small but important launchpad is more than just a symbolic victory.

AFP — A general view of the Sevastopol Shipyard in Crimea (top R) on September 12, 2023, before a strike, and a general view of damage at the Shipyard after a strike on September 13, 2023.

Indeed, if the two damaged ships aren't repaired (which is likely), they will block this critical repair and maintenance facility. Russia has few of these facilities, having moved away from a plan to fully modernise their other repair base in the region — namely the port of Novorossiysk — after the annexation of Crimea. In other words, by striking Sevastopol, Ukraine hit three birds with one stone.

What's more, Russia may increasingly require such repair facilities, as Ukraine is also using naval drones to hit Russian ships patrolling the Black Sea. Unmanned explosive-laden ships are now regularly used to target Russian ships.

Those tools aren't especially effective, but they're cheap and difficult to detect. Even when intercepted and destroyed by cannon fire, if they can approach close enough to a Russian ship, they will cause some amount of damage.

This summer, for instance, an explosive-laden naval drone was used to hit another Ropucha-class landing ship. The ship ended up coming back limping to the port of Novorossiysk, despite Russian claims that the attack was thwarted.

A culmination of a series of attacks

But the attack on Sevastopol was also the culmination of a series of attacks aimed at weakening Russian air defences and creating more "space" for future Ukrainian operations.

The attack on Sevastopol was also the culmination of a series of attacks aimed at weakening Russian air defences and creating more "space" for future Ukrainian operations.

Days before the attack against the Sevastopol drydocks, Ukrainian special forces on speedboats raided the "Boiko Towers", a set of drilling platforms situated off the coast of Crimea. Russia used the platforms as a radar station to monitor maritime traffic in the Black Sea.

In doing so, Ukrainian troops removed a key radar that was helping track surface movements across a large swathe of the northern Black Sea — the exact area Kyiv is trying to free of Russian influence.

This is perhaps the most visible and daring part of an effort by Ukraine to blind Russian forces by targeting radar stations across the Black Sea and Crimea.

Shutterstock — A map of the Black Sea and surrounding countries.

In parallel, Ukrainian drones and missiles have been used to stage complex attacks against Russian air defences, including a top-notch S-400 air defence battery hit by Ukrainian troops.

Adding insult to injury, the Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) released a video of the S-400 sitting idly, as a drone filmed its eventual destruction by Ukrainian projectiles.

This is not the kind of advertisement you want for your air defence systems, and is a testament to the inaccuracy of the popular claim that "there is no bad publicity".

There certainly is.

But beyond the bad publicity, softening Russian air defences is critical. The Ukrainian air force is likely making good use of Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, launched by older soviet jets still in service of the Ukrainian air force.

These jets need to be able to fly safely within operational distance of Russian bases and assets. They likely are behind the attack in Sevastopol.

The goal of the Ukrainian operations is clear: Ukrainian fighter jets, naval commandos and missiles may not be advancing through trenches, but just like their brother in arms on land, they are piercing Russian defences.

A meticulous campaign that just got started

The strike in Sevastopol was not an anomaly or a result of chance. Ukraine was cashing in on a meticulous naval and aerial campaign that enabled it to reach Russia's most precious assets. Future strikes should be expected, making the attack against Sevastopol the first of its kind — not the last.

The strike in Sevastopol was not an anomaly or a result of chance. Ukraine was cashing in on a meticulous naval and aerial campaign that enabled it to reach Russia's most precious assets. Future strikes should be expected, making the attack against Sevastopol the first of its kind — not the last.

Ukraine is altogether creating an interdiction area, imposing a cost on Russian ships that dare enter this area, and expanding it simultaneously.

The objective is to remove the threat of cruise missiles, but also to allow for the safe resumption of maritime traffic in the Black Sea, following the collapse of the Grain Initiative in July.

An inspector surveys the damage at a grain port facility after a reported attack by Russian military drones in, Izmail, Odesa region, Ukraine August 2, 2023.

Since Russia exited the deal, Ukraine has tried to find alternatives, including by using river ports. Those have, in turn, been the target of Russian drone attacks, relying on Iranian-made Shaheds.

Although these Iranian weapons are crude, they are effective in number. Another Ukrainian initiative has seen Kyiv create its own maritime corridor, with ships sailing close to the coast, away from Russian ships and positions near Crimea.

To be clear, we should not expect this corridor to suddenly replace the Grain Initiative. The danger is still too real for most ships and companies to venture into this area of the Black Sea.

But, in addition to striking critical blows to Russian logistics and fleet, Ukraine also shows that the Russian blockade is not necessarily viable.

To do so, it is waging a naval campaign against Russia, a country that has always strived to get access to the Black Sea.

Other naval powers will certainly study Ukrainian tactics as they are shaping up to be one of the most effective area-denial campaigns we've seen in modern history — and coming from a country that has virtually no navy.

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