How the man who challenged Putin met his predictable end

All eyes on Putin

Regardless of the method used, all eyes are on Putin.

The Russian president appeared unphased and smiling as he celebrated the anniversary of the battle of Kursk, just hours after Prigozhin's plane took a final dive.

A day after the death, the Russian president issued a lacklustre statement noting that Prigozhin was "talented" but had made "serious mistakes" in his life. This was, in fact, the first time Putin uttered Prigozhin's name since the 24 June mutiny.

Ever since the rebellion, he had removed the Prigozhin's name from his mouth, refusing to name the Wagner leader even during speeches related to the mutiny itself. This was a ubiquitous prelude to Prigozhin's "removal" altogether.

The message is clear, and the Russian president does not seem bothered to deny it. The dramatic explosion was the final chapter of the bizarre post-mutiny era. During these past weeks, Putin had sent discreet but clear messages that he would not abide by Prighozin's demands.

During his short-lived mutiny, Prighozin demanded the removal of the Minister of Defence, Sergey Shoigu, as well as the Russian Chief of Staff and head of military operations in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov. Instead, both Shoigu and Gerasimov have continued on as if nothing happened.

In another subtle message, Putin even visited the Kronstadt museum, the site of a Soviet mutiny quelled by the Bolshevik government, alongside his Belarusian vassal, Alexander Lukashenko who was the "guarantor" of the deal Prigozhin reached to end his mutiny.

Deadly illusions

This was not the first time Prigozhin flew in and out of Russia. The same jet that crashed near Moscow had made several flights between Moscow, St.Petersburg (where Wagner's former HQ still is), and Belarus, where the group resettled after mutiny.

One can wonder why Prigozhin felt so confident he could fly and operate in Russia. We probably won't have an answer, but for all his ruthless cruelty, Prigozhin also appears to have entertained some illusions that proved deadly.

Read more: How Prigozhin's overestimation ended in his humiliation

One of them was that Putin would stand above Prigozhin's dispute with Shoigu and Gerasimov, and arbitrate the dispute. Even when it was clear that Putin had in fact sided with his defence minister and chief of staff and that Wagner was on his way to being dismantled, Prigozhin drafted a plan to carry out his "March of Justice".

This was viewed by Putin as a coup attempt and is often described as such, but it is clear that Prigozhin had no idea where he was going, and may have been surprised his troops were able to get this close to the Russian capital.

Why did Prigozhin fly back to Russia?

The idea that Putin was some arbiter above the petty conflicts of the Russian security apparatus may have played a role in Prigozhin's fateful decision to come back to Russia, from Africa.

Indeed, some pro-Russian sources claim the leader of Wagner flew back to Russia after hearing of a plan to replace Wagner's presence in the continent. Some pro-Russian military bloggers have in fact speculated that Prigozhin was on his way to meet Putin himself (who he last met five days after the 24 June mutiny), to try and convince him to stop the plan.

Prighozin's jet crashed while on its way from Moscow to St. Petersburg, yet some pro-Russian sources claim he may have been on his way to meet the Russian president himself in Putin's Valday complex — incidentally, relatively close to where the "crash" took place.

Before the crash, there were signs that Wagner's main camp in Belarus was being dismantled, as the group shifted operations to Africa.

As mentioned, Prigozhin himself released a message from the continent — one that felt like the group was finally finding its footing, and back on track for even greater things, as Prighozin's second-in-command had promised in another video.

Vanity is a deadly sin

Another illusion — one sometimes echoed by experts covering Russia — is that Prigozhin was simply too important to kill. Vanity is a deadly sin, and Prigozhin certainly thought of himself and Wagner as "too big to fail".  Indeed, Wagner was central to Russia's emerging influence in Africa, amongst others.

President Putin also stoked Prigozhin's ego by having him participate in the Africa Summit Russia organised after the mutiny in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin may have seen this invitation as a sign that — for all the bad blood — the Russian president still recognised that he needed Wagner.

Killing Prigozhin does raise questions as to how Moscow will be able to bridge the gap created by Wagner's demise. But this also fails to grasp the reality of decision-making in the Kremlin — one in which self-preservation always takes precedence over any kind of other considerations.

As Prigozhin himself found out, the Russian system is one that favours loyalty over competence and where usefulness to the Russian cause doesn't make up for treachery.

Putin sends clear message

It is likely that in the Kremlin, the cost of Prigozhin's demise is viewed as negligible when compared to the goal of sending a clear message to those who think they can come at the Tsar and live to tell the tale.

Of course, this is not to say that Prigozhin's likely death will have no impact both on Russia and on its influence in the world, nor that it is without a risk.

Prigozhin's end has already led to some discontent among Wagner, as well as Russia's most nationalistic figures. One of them, Alexander Dugin, praised Prigozhin and Utkin as heroes, castigating the "diabolical enemies" who killed him — stopping short of specifying who those enemies were.

He remembered that his daughter Darya (who was killed in an explosion that was likely meant to kill him instead) said that Prigozhin was a "strong and confident" as well as a "bold and sharp" man.

Alas, Prigozhin was not sharp enough to see the dark clouds that eventually took him out of the sky.

The fact is, Prigozhin's death suggests the Kremlin felt confident it could settle the score. The death of the Wagner founder was preceded by the official dismissal of General Sergey Surovikin, who had disappeared ever since the Wagner mutiny.

After weeks of rumours, the Kremlin effectively confirmed that Surovikin — who had been accused of being close to Prigozhin and even of potentially knowing of Prigozhin's rebellious plans — had fallen out of favour.

The timing is unlikely to be coincidental. A few weeks ago, Igor Strelkov, a hardliner and growing critic of Moscow's perceived "timid" strategy in Ukraine, was arrested in another sign of things to come.

Read more: Are Putin's days numbered?

Just like Prigozhin, Strelkov, who was convicted by a Dutch court over the shooting down of the MH17 airliner over Ukraine, was increasingly direct in his criticism of the Kremlin and was planning to launch his own political platform.

Some voices expressed implicit criticism of the arrest, but nothing happened, showing that the ultra-nationalist camp was more bark than bite.

In killing Prigozhin, Putin taught the Russian elite a valuable political lesson, best expressed in the TV show The Wire: "You come at the King, you best not miss."

It is certainly a lesson that his political opponents will remember, though also a double-edged one: The next one to come for Putin, may not be foolish enough to take half-measures or come to Moscow without a plan.