Are Putin's days numbered?

Putin’s failure to act against someone like Prigozhin, who was once regarded as a close protege, suggests the Russian leader is not as strong as he would like the Russian people to believe

Are Putin's days numbered?

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have survived the mutiny launched by his former protege, Yevgeny Prigozhin, but the Wagner Group leader’s attempt to topple Russia’s military leadership raises serious questions about Putin’s ability ultimately to survive in power.

Read more: Putin's private army threatens his survival

For more than 24 hours after Prigozhin announced the dramatic news that his forces were marching on Moscow, the Russian leader effectively disappeared from view, prompting rumours that he had fled from Moscow to secure his own safety.

Even though it now appears the rumours were false, with Kremlin officials insisting that Putin had remained in the capital throughout what proved to be a short-lived crisis, the fact that the Russian leader, in effect, went missing in action during the gravest crisis his presidency has faced during his 23 years in power has hardly helped to reassure the Russian people that their leader is capable of providing the strong leadership they crave.

Indeed, the fact that Putin was forced to back down from his original claim that Prigozhin was a traitor, and should be treated as such, suggested the very opposite — that Putin is desperately seeking to reassert his authority.

A full-scale civil war between the official Russian military and Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries was only averted after the intervention of Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of neighbouring Belarus, who managed to defuse the situation by offering Prigozhin and his fighters the opportunity to go into exile in his country.

Putin attempts to portray business-as-usual image

Having overcome the gravest crisis he has faced since becoming president, Putin has attempted to portray a business-as-usual image following his public reappearance, one where the security of the Russian state was never seriously placed in jeopardy.

Having overcome the gravest crisis he has faced since becoming president, Putin has attempted to portray a business-as-usual image following his public reappearance, one where the security of the Russian state was never seriously placed in jeopardy.

In a short speech made after Lukashenko had brokered his deal with the 62-year-old Prigozhin, Putin tried to appear magnanimous, declaring that Wagner fighters either had the choice of joining the Russian military, returning home or going into exile in Belarus.

Read more: Dissecting Prigozhin's failed power play: Is this the end of the road for Wagner PMC?

As many of them are former convicts who were released from prison for the express purpose of fighting with Wagner in Ukraine, it is open to question whether the Russian authorities will really allow them to return home to enjoy their freedom.

There has already been talk in Russian security circles of holding those who took part in the mutiny to account for their actions, which suggests, at the very least, that former convicts who took part in the uprising will be returned to their jail cells.

No direct reference to Prigozhin

As for Prigozhin's fate, Putin made no direct reference to his former protege, preferring instead to declare that the organisers of the revolt betrayed the Russian people.

"Today, you have the opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defence or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends," said Putin.

"Whoever wants to can go to Belarus. The promise I made will be fulfilled. I repeat: The choice is yours."

Repairing tarnished reputation

Putin also used the speech to bolster his tarnished reputation after his administration's woeful performance during the crisis, when key officials and officers appeared impotent in the face of Wagner's mutiny.

By thanking both the Russian people for displaying unity in the face of adversity, and thanking commanders and soldiers of the mercenary group for avoiding bloodshed, Putin appeared to confirm the impression that he had been reduced to the status of an impotent spectator during the conflict, and not the resolute strongman he likes to portray himself as.

Rebuilding his reputation as the man best qualified to lead the Russian people, therefore, is going to be a big ask for Putin, especially as Prigozhin shows no sign of backing down in terms of his constant criticism of the Kremlin's running of the war in Ukraine.

Rebuilding his reputation as the man best qualified to lead the Russian people, therefore, is going to be a big ask for Putin, especially as Prigozhin shows no sign of backing down in terms of his constant criticism of the Kremlin's running of the war in Ukraine.

Prigozhin's boastful rhetoric

Having claimed the credit for ending his Wagner group's march on Moscow, Prigozhin has shown no desire to tone down his confrontational attitude towards the Kremlin.

On the contrary, having boasted that his troops remained the best fighters in Russia, the Wagner leader, by launching his mini-invasion of Russia, has shown the Russian military how it should have conducted its initial invasion of Ukraine last year.

Read more: Wagner's genie is out of the bottle

In his comments following the revolt, Prigozhin claimed that his mutiny had been a "masterclass" in how to launch an invasion which, had he been in charge, would have resulted in the Russians seizing control of Ukraine within a day.

The validity of his boast is open to question, not least because Ukrainian forces have proved themselves to be just as effective in defending Ukrainian territory from Russian forces as they are against Wagner mercenaries.

Nevertheless, the fact that Prigozhin is determined to maintain his public criticism of the Kremlin's handling of the invasion, not to mention the trauma many Russians have suffered as a result of his aborted mutiny, means that Putin remains in a precarious position.

The fact that Prigozhin is determined to maintain his public criticism of the Kremlin's handling of the invasion, not to mention the trauma many Russians have suffered as a result of his aborted mutiny, means that Putin remains in a precarious position.

Putin's ability to survive in office for so long in office has been primarily due to his ruthless suppression of any political opponent, whether it is dispatching powerful oligarchs like Mikhail Khodorkovsky to penal colonies in Siberia or authorising the assassination of prominent dissidents like Alexander Litvinenko.

By contrast, Putin's failure to act against someone like Prigozhin, who was once regarded as a close protege, suggests the Russian leader is not as strong as he would like the Russian people to believe.

Read more: Wagner 'coup attempt' reveals cracks in Putin's delicate power balance

Certainly, when Russian newspapers that have formerly been regarded as staunch supporters of Putin begin to publicly question the Kremlin's leadership, with papers such as Moskovsky Komsomolets, a pro-Putin daily warning the failed coup would have "profound political consequences", the only logical conclusion to be reached is that Putin's days as Russian president are numbered.

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