Prigozhin’s likely death begs more questions than answers

Fourth, the day before, the first official visit of the Russian military delegation headed by Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov took place in Libya.

The visit was ostensibly for negotiations with Khalifa Haftar after the Army-2023 military forum held in Moscow. However, according to unofficial sources, Yevkurov — one of the generals who participated in negotiations with Prigozhin during his June mutiny — came to Libya to discuss the fate of Wagner, where the mercenaries maintain a presence at a number of facilities.

Coincidentally, the plane crash happened on the eve of Ukraine's Independence Day which Kremlin pundits used to link the crash to a possible Ukrainian operation in Russian territory.

Eyewitness accounts

The crash trajectory of Prigozhin's jet indicated a sudden failure of all control systems which points to either a critical malfunction or an explosion.

The theory that the plane was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile is supported by eyewitness accounts who reported that they heard two blasts, the steep trajectory of the fall and found small craters — presumably from shrapnel — in the wreckage of the crashed jet.

This theory is plausible especially given that two large airbases — Khotilovo and Migalovo — are both located in the same vicinity and both are equipped with air defence mechanisms.

However, the available photographic and video evidence is not enough to confirm the exact nature of the damage — not to mention that the circulating video has yet to be authenticated. The video shows a white cloud trace which could be a condensation trail, but aircraft usually catch fire when they are hit by an anti-aircraft missile.

The theory that MANPADS shot down the jet can be immediately dismissed, since the plane was flying at an altitude of 8,534 meters, according to data from the Flightradar24 website, and MANPADS only have a five-kilometre radius of impact.

The second theory is that an IED was placed on board, despite the fact that the business jet was inspected with bomb-sniffing dogs before the flight took off, as per protocol.

Given Prigozhin's lifestyle and the experience of the founder of the PMC, Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin, and Chief of Security Valery Chekalov, who were also likely killed, planting explosives on the plane would be extremely difficult and highly unlikely.

This is also unlikely because Prigozhin was returning to Moscow from Mali after refuelling in Damascus, and it was only in Moscow that he changed planes to board his business jet. The flight delay because of unusual repairs is even more unlikely to be the work of saboteurs.

Far-fetched theories

A mistakenly launched missile, a technical malfunction, the jet leaving the air corridor in radio silence mode (usually in such a case fighter jets fly out to intercept), and a lightning strike that led to the detonation of the fuel tank are all far-fetched theories that practically no one would buy given Prigozhin's background.

Suggesting a foreign hand in the crash is also bad publicity for the Kremlin, which makes it look like its defences are weak and vulnerable to foreign attacks.

Officials in Moscow rarely comment on attacks on military airfields by short-range drones that cannot be launched from Ukrainian territory, or arson attacks on military recruitment centres in many Russian regions.

Pro-government political analysts immediately began to spread this theory, arguing a hit on Wagner bosses would have been much easier to carry out in Africa than in Russia itself.

As political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya correctly notes, whatever the reasons for the plane crash, it will be widely perceived as an act of retribution and reprisal, which doesn't bother the Kremlin in the least.

"From Putin's point of view, as well as that of many security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should be a lesson to all potential followers," Stanovaya writes.

The theory that Prigozhin staged his own death cannot be ruled out entirely but, at the same time, his deliberate disappearance, given Wagner's personality-driven structure, is equivalent to his physical death to the mercenary group.

But it is also hard to believe in the possible resurrection of Prigozhin after some time: it would be too smart to demonstrate one's rightness in a dispute with the country's military leadership, which probably would like to eliminate him due to discrediting the military leadership or expose a sabotage network, which could plan the elimination of Prigozhin.

Death will likely remain a mystery

Despite official statements, Prigozhin's death will likely remain a mystery. The same is true for popular Russian General Lev Rokhlin in 1998, who, according to the official statements, was shot dead by his loving wife during a family quarrel.

It is worth noting that the alleged liquidation of the top brass of Wagner occurred when the mercenary forces — who wished to remain loyal to Prigozhin after the mutiny — were confined to Belarus, and in a number of countries, including Syria and CAR, the long-awaited rotation of personnel was carried out.

As a result, Wagner has been virtually neutralised outside of Russia making it difficult to win favour with disgruntled soldiers in the army and incite a new rebellion against Moscow.

There is a temptation to assume that Prigozhin's assassination could have been plotted from the first day of the mutiny and when Wagner's withdrawal to Belarus was being negotiated.

Regardless of whether this is true or not, the alleged deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin make it virtually impossible for the group to exist autonomously.

Without additional means of subsistence and with the termination of a number of contracts due to the death of their signatories and the threat of possible criminal prosecution of ordinary mercenaries under the Syrian or Libyan dossier, talk of the "inviolability of the ideals of brotherhood" is just that — only talk. 

Therefore, the prospect of absorbing Wagner mercenaries into the Russian army becomes not only likely but also necessary.