Prigozhin overplayed his hand
These theories put aside, the most plausible explanation is that Prigozhin was testing his limits after a fallout with Putin where the two men were not on speaking terms. In fact, his mercenary group was under threat of disbandment following a presidential decree mandating that it signs contracts with the Defence Ministry.
According to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, Prigozhin likely overplayed his hands. He was caught off guard by Putin's punishment and the army and National Guard's (Rosgvardia) deployment as the first line of defence to stop his march on Moscow.
"All he cared about after the morning of the 24th was being able to get out alive from a game that had gone radically wrong for him," Stanovaya believes.
In any case, Prigozhin managed to conduct a comprehensive test of the politico-military system in one day: from assessing the capacity of regional officials and the ability of Russian security forces to stand up to a disgruntled, battle-hardened force in revolt, as opposed to a handful of unarmed oppositionists.
Domestic implications
All influential Russian experts agree that the 'march' of Prigozhin's mercenaries on Moscow will lead to changes in the Russian power centre — including legislative amendments, personnel reshuffles, and intra-elite changes — depending on demonstrated loyalty to the president and who sided with whom during the 'coup'. However, it will not happen immediately as Putin rarely makes reactionary decisions.
On 26 June, the press office of the Defence Ministry released footage showing Shoigu inspecting the Western grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine. But there are enough reasons to believe that this footage was recorded in advance and distributed on Shoigu's personal account, to squash speculation over his imminent resignation.
Despite statements by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov that charges against Prigozhin have been dropped, the Russian media reports that the criminal case of organising an armed insurgency has not been legally dropped and continues to be investigated by the Russian Federal Security Service investigation department.
But according to independent sources, these reports appeared for two reasons: to encourage Prigozhin not to delay his departure from Russia (according to some reports, he has already arrived in Minsk) and to boost the reputation of investigating authorities, which suffers from poor credibility.
Media sources in the Defence Ministry confirm what this Al Majalla journalist previously reported — that Wagner forces will be afforded the opportunity to integrate into existing law enforcement agencies of the MoD and Rosgvardia — but the PMC as a whole will not remain intact.
In the meantime, the activities of the Wagner PMCs in various regions of Russia — nearly 40 cities, including 16 cities with a population of a million — have resumed and continue recruitment as usual, offering salaries higher than the average wage of military contract soldiers. This could just be inertia at play, but it is possible that Prigozhin will continue recruitment as a way to pressure the authorities.
The Kremlin can, in fact, disband the Wagner network of recruitment centres without major repercussions. It can work directly with mercenary units in Ukraine combat zones — especially given the fact that not all Wagner staff supported the decision to rebel.
