Normalisation with Syria faces a new setback. It will not be the last.

This proposed plan encompasses several key aspects, including the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territories, collaborative endeavours to counter the activities of the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the repatriation of Syrian refugees.

A possible meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in addition to potential official visits by al-Assad to prominent Arab capitals, could be on the cards.

Hope shortlived

Normalisation had renewed hopes in Syria for economic prosperity, an infusion of reconstruction funds, and the possible lifting of sanctions. However, over time, these hopes have diminished as Syria has experienced further economic deterioration and a depreciation of the Syrian pound's exchange rate.

At the same time, the normalisation process with Damascus has hit a roadblock and Turkey has ruled out military withdrawal from Syria.

The distinct essence of this phase is epitomised by recent statements by President al-Assad on the Arab League, diplomatic interactions with Arab nations, issues related to drugs and sanctions, and his critical stance towards both Hamas and Ankara.

Who is the biggest winner in Syria?

This will not be the last pause in either Arab or Turkish normalisation with Damascus for two fundamental reasons:

• Both sides have drastically different definitions of success and failure
• Neither side has absolute power or leverage over the other side

In fact, decision-makers in Damascus don't see themselves as defeated; rather, some believe that Syria has emerged victorious after 12 years of war. Another view is that Russia and Iran did not save the regime but rather safeguarded their own strategic stakes in Syria. 

These people view normalisation as the Arabs re-engaging with Syria rather than Syria reintegrating into the Arab sphere.

There is no doubt that Syria is divided into three states and that half of its population is displaced with a third living abroad. There is also no doubt that the country's economy and infrastructure are destroyed and that it hosts at least five foreign armies. This reality sharply contrasts with the narrative peddled by Damascus that it has emerged as the winner.

Limited bargaining power

The debate over which side is the winner or loser will continue to rage. What further complicates the situation is that the three parties involved — Syria, Arab nations, and Turkey — do not collectively possess enough bargaining chips.

The dissolution of drugs networks, the pushing back of armed factions away from Arab borders, the establishment of a safe environment for refugee repatriation, and the attenuation of the influence of the Kurdish entity and other factions affiliated with US forces in eastern Syria — cannot be solved by Damascus, but rather Tehran or Moscow.

In the same vein, the lifting of sanctions and the ending of Syria's diplomatic isolation is not in the hands of the Arab League but in the hands of Washington and other Western capitals.

Read more: The ceiling of Arab normalisation with Syria

Additionally, Syria is only one of several pressing concerns for global powers.

The current impasse is being manifested through the escalating confrontation between Russia and the United States, the suspension of an international resolution on humanitarian assistance, the persistent series of Israeli air strikes, and Iran's ongoing attempts to establish a foothold in Syria.

An Arab ministerial assembly will convene soon, where Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad will attend. The purpose of this meeting is to assess what has been achieved so far in the step-by-step process of Syria's reintegration into the Arab League and to possibly reposition the initiative so that it has a better chance of success.