If world food supplies are weaponised, Africa will be first in the firing line

That suspension has hit developing countries, especially in densely populated East Africa, which is burdened with the high cost of food imports and consecutive years of drought. Despite its fragile economic standing, Africa has emerged as a powerful player among major powers since the war in Ukraine.

There is now intense international competition for Africa's favour and a stake in its natural resources and its geopolitical strategic potential – from Beijing to Paris and from Moscow to Washington – with the global geopolitical order in flux.

But on the continent – which endured three centuries of colonialism and was used as the source of millions of slaves for the free world – there is recognition that the words of politicians from the West and the East are steeped in self-interest, with little room for true friendship amid promises of development, money and food.

Appealing to sentiments against the colonialism of old is not enough to convince Africa to accept a new form of the same kind of domination. The continent has long experience showing it is likely to be the first victim in any conflict over grain resources.

That happened multiple times in the 1980s. No barrier to prevent a repeat exists. A meagre supply of a few tons is not enough to feed a population of 1.5 billion people, a quarter of whom live in the open due to poverty, wars and climate change.

Weaponised food exports

Russia produced over 130 million tons of grain in the 2022-2023 season. It plans to export at least 50 million tons to emerging and developing countries in the Global South.

Its aim is to dominate the Black Sea grain market to give Moscow commercial and political leverage against the West, the major supplier of arms to Ukraine.

Before Russia invaded its neighbour, Ukraine provided about 12% of global grain exports last year. Moscow aims to reduce this share to less than 5%.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's production has decreased by almost half, from 33 million tons of wheat and 42 million tons of corn in the previous season to 17.5 million tons and 25 million tons, respectively, in the 2023-2024 season, after the outbreak of war.

This will reduce the global supply of grain and vegetable oils, driving prices higher once again, according to the Agritel Institute, which specialises in global food production.

And so, Russia aims to boost its own agricultural exports, in part to help make up for some of the losses of energy exports to the European Union after the West's sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Read more: Putin plays hunger games in targeting Ukraine grain silos

It also wants to put pressure on the United States to allow Russia back onto the West's financial transaction network, known as SWIFT, at least for food exports, to help rebuild its foreign currency reserves.

After the sanctions, Russia's economy has been struggling. It has seen some price deflation, along with low growth rates of less than half a percentage point. There are shortages of consumer goods and spare parts.

The troubled state of the country's economy and finances will limit Russia's ambitions in Africa. Its trade with the continent was just $18bn in 2022. The US is committed to investing $55bn after its own summit with Africa, held in Washington at the end of last year.

China is running projects across the continent worth around $155bn. They include infrastructure, renewable energy, agriculture, water supply, technological advancement and medicine.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the countries of the Middle East and North Africa will need to import around 31.7 million tons of grains in the upcoming 2023-2024 season.

The region is one of the biggest consumers of wheat in the world and its own production has declined due to poor climactic conditions, including a lack of rain, particularly in North Africa.

Read more: North Africa bears brunt of Mena climate change challenges

While the global market can meet the demands of Arab countries, some countries in the region are facing economic difficulties, political and security instability, rising inflation, currency devaluation, deteriorating balance of payments and rising debt.  These combined factors could potentially lead to an upcoming surge in the cost of domestically imported food.

Global wheat prices rose 31%, and sunflower oil by 60% in the last year. The International Food Policy Research Institute warns more rises could be ahead now the grain agreement over grain exports from Ukraine – which has so far shielded the Global South from the worst of the potential consequences at a time of climate change – is suspended.

Any disruption in grain supplies will hit food security, a concern previously mentioned by United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO). Since the start of 2023, 18 million tons of grains, or 28% of wheat and 46% of corn, have been shipped from Ukraine to China, Spain, Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands.

For the second year in a row, China was the primary Black Sea wheat importer following the signing of the grain agreement brokered between Russia and Ukraine by the UN and Turkey.

Meanwhile, Egypt retains its position at the forefront of Arab nations importing around one million tons of corn, 418,000 tons of wheat, and 131,000 tons of soybeans. Egypt's demand alone for the next phase is estimated at 11 million tons of grain in the next phase, according to the UNFAO, while China's requirement stands at 12 million tons.

In a report about the leading wheat-exporting countries in the 2022-2023 season, the UNFAO said that Brazil's exports declined by 44%, India by 30%, Australia by 12%, Argentina by 7% and Ukraine by 47%.

Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Program for Food and Water Security at the Center for Strategic Studies said: "The suspension of the grain agreement will hinder progress in alleviating the food supply crisis in Yemen, Egypt and North Africa."

Between August and November 2022, the Arab region imported 42% of the major grain exports from Ukraine, according to the UN.

Yemen imported 40% of its requirements from Russia, while Lebanon acquired 54,000 tons of corn and 34,000 tons of wheat. Libya imported 11,000 tons of barley, 391,000 tons of corn and 53,000 tons of wheat.

Algeria's purchases amounted to 212,000 tons of wheat, Tunisia 222,000 tons of wheat, and Yemen 259,000 tons. Morocco bought 100,000 tons of sunflower seeds under the grain agreement facilitated by the United Nations with Turkish mediation a year ago.

Rising grain imports

According to estimates provided by the US Department of Agriculture, Algeria imported 6.6 million tons of soft wheat in the first half of 2023. In the 2021-2022 season, its grain imports stood at 10.6 million tons, and the preceding 2020-2021 season witnessed imports exceeding 13 million tons.

Algeria is the second-largest grain importer in North Africa after Egypt. While primarily relying on France for imports of wheat and food supplies, Algeria has quadrupled its purchases from Russia in recent years, importing 1.3 million tons of soft wheat in 2022. The country purchased wheat at around $261 per ton after prices had reached $400 at the start of the crisis coinciding with the aftermath of Covid-19.

In Morocco, the National Federation of Grain and Legume Traders revealed that the country imported 5.1 million tons of soft wheat between June 2022 and May 2023 due to drought and low rainfall.

Over the period spanning from 2018 to 2023, Morocco imported 20 million tons of soft wheat from 22 countries around the world. Among these, France emerged as the most significant supplier, followed by Ukraine. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war led to a decline in Morocco's imports of Russian wheat, pushing it down to the seventh position with a total of around 64,000 tons.

This decrease was compensated for by imports from countries such as Argentina, Germany, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Britain. According to the National Federation, Morocco's reliance on Black Sea imports has significantly decreased, allowing it to be less affected by the suspension of the grain agreement.

In Tunisia, agricultural production plummeted by 60% in the 2022-2023 season due to drought and the impact of the El Niño weather system on North Africa and the Mediterranean.

As a result, Tunisia requires additional imports estimated at 1.2 million tons of soft wheat, along with other amounts of barley and corn. The country is facing a significant external payments deficit and a very difficult economic situation due to the depletion of foreign exchange reserves and the inability to secure a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund for around $2bn.

That makes its more exposed that its neighbours in the Maghreb to food price fluctuations, such as those that will follow the demise of the UN-brokered Russian deal on grain exports from Ukraine.

Food crisis exposure

If a food crisis is coming, the Arab region is divided into two types of countries in terms of dealing with it: those that can afford higher prices and increased imports and those that cannot.

The first group will not be significantly affected by the suspension of the grain agreement in the Black Sea, even if the supply decreases and prices increase, due to diverse suppliers in other markets.

The second group includes nations that already lack sufficient funds to finance foreign trade, or do not have security, stability and economic support for their citizens. Sudan and Yemen are among the Middle Eastern countries most affected by Putin's decisions and Biden's sanctions, in addition to the displaced population from Syria.

Playing politics with hunger

As the Russian president aims to pressure the West into partially lifting the economic sanctions in exchange for returning to the grain agreement, the EU is likely to hold Moscow responsible for any hunger caused by the demise of the grain deal.

The bloc has signalled as much on three separate occasions at the UN Security Council within a span of ten days.

In the event that countries in the Global South by any worsening food situation, the EU will respond swiftly by providing assistance and free shipments under the banners of humanitarianism and solidarity banners, and export additional quantities under favourable repayment terms.

In both cases, the West will seek to persuade the hesitant parties that the war in Ukraine is unjust, and depict its people as under attack while defending themselves, a narrative that Putin has also utilised in reverse at the recent St. Petersburg summit.