What's on the agenda at the Nato summit?

The West has also imposed a range of sanctions, which have hurt Russia's economy, which has found ways to deal with the impact and move on with alternatives.

These are the conditions that lead into the set-piece summit in the capital of Lithuania, which lead into the issues Nato leaders will discuss in the Baltic state. Here, Al Majalla looks at the likely agenda leaders will discuss. The first item on the agenda is, of course, obvious.

The war in Ukraine

Nato's commitment to Ukraine's defensive fight is firm. The alliance has clearly identified Russia, once again, as the biggest threat to its security. The organisation as a whole has been giving non-lethal assistance to Ukraine, with deadly equipment offered by its members acting as individual nations acting on a bilateral basis.

According to a recent hearing in Washington, the value of bilateral security assistance from the US has reached $40 billion. The figure was revealed by the deputy assistant secretary of state to the House's Foreign Affairs Committee.

The official added that a further $32 billion in lethal aid has come from over 50 nations within the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, which has been sending military hardware and equipment.

But there are differences between the allies on the extent of the support on offer. Nato members from central and eastern Europe are generally more hawkish than Western Europeans. The impact of the war has been felt in the West – from high inflation rates and other economic difficulties – to pressures on stocks of defence equipment.

Nonetheless, the allies are united in their support for Ukraine and their resolve is strong. In Vilnius, they will reiterate this.

Russia's internal situation

The war in Ukraine is now at the centre of internal power dynamics in Russia.

It is the main issue in the country, for President Vladimir Putin and his opponents, the military and intelligence apparatus, the Wagner state-sponsored private army and the country's oligarchs.

During the short-lived rebellion in late June, Wagner took control of Rostov-on-Don, Russia's southern military headquarters and the command centre of the war against Ukraine. Wagner formations then started to move towards Moscow.

A civil war in Russia seemed imminent. But the crisis came to an end as suddenly as it started, within 24 hours. As part of a deal brokered by Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner soldiers returned to their barracks. The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was allowed to leave Russia and go to Belarus. 

Read more: How Prigozhin's overestimation ended in his humiliation

There is much speculation and many rumours about what exactly happened. Only a few know the truth. Nato followed developments very closely and at the highest level.

Any crisis involving the leadership of Russia is always a major matter, with the presence of nuclear weapons makes it globally significant. Russia's recent decision to move tactical nuclear weapons onto Belarus soil had already caused alarm.

A civil war in Russia seemed imminent. But the crisis came to an end as suddenly as it started, within 24 hours. As part of a deal brokered by Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner soldiers returned to their barracks. The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was allowed to leave Russia and go to Belarus. 

There is much speculation and many rumours about what exactly happened. Only a few know the truth. Nato followed developments very closely and at the highest level.

Any crisis involving the leadership of Russia is always a major matter, with the presence of nuclear weapons making it globally significant. Russia's recent decision to move tactical nuclear weapons onto Belarus soil had already caused alarm.

During the mutiny, there were reports that some Wagner units, on their way to Moscow, had reached the outskirts of Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast, where there is a depot of nuclear warheads. Rumours of attempts to seize them turned out to be untrue but gave a scare nevertheless. 

Nato and the US have long been concerned about the safety of Russia's nuclear material and the possibility of it falling into the wrong hands.

As remote a possibility as it may be, the capture of any nuclear weapons or warheads by elements outside the Moscow establishment's control – or the officially sanctioned use of a tactical nuclear warhead for a limited strike – would totally change all the political equations and military dynamics. 

Ukraine's Nato membership

In the Bucharest Summit Declaration issued on 3 April 2008, Nato leaders welcomed Ukraine's and Georgia's aspirations for membership of the alliance.  They agreed that "these countries will become members of Nato" (Article 23).

This was a political statement. It was not the start of a formal process. It lacked a detailed roadmap, benchmarks for the process and a target date for membership. To start full moves toward membership, there must be a formal invitation from Nato, which has not yet come. 

Relations between Nato and Ukraine date back to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Throughout, Russia has opposed Nato's expansion, viewing the enlargement of the alliance as a direct threat to its security. Moscow has previously declared Ukrainian membership as a red line.

The alliance has previously brought in countries which were formerly allied with Moscow under the Warsaw Pact, but it has also generally not offered membership to former Soviet states, including Ukraine,  with the exception of the three Baltic nations, which have always had a different standing.

For some time, Ukraine has been pushing for formal membership. Its parliament passed legislation reinstating Nato membership as a strategic objective and it was later included in the constitution. 

In 2022, Ukraine's president signed the formal application to join Nato. But If Ukraine joined Nato now, under Article 5 of the alliance's Washington Treaty, Nato would face war with Russia. Article 5 is the commitment to collective Nato defence in case of an attack on a member state.

Ukraine is well aware that joining at a time of ongoing war is not a realistic option. An idea of what it might be aiming for came recently from an interview Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, gave to The Guardian newspaper.

He said that Ukraine understands the difficulties associated with joining Nato while the conflict is ongoing, but insists on guarantees that it will be admitted as a member after the war with Russia ends. 

In other words, Ukraine is seeking a concrete pledge for future membership and security guarantees. The guarantees would pertain to the period between signing a peace agreement with Russia and becoming formally a Nato member, which would bring Ukraine under the protective umbrella of Article 5.

Nato, as part of its open-door policy, has made a political declaration to the effect that Ukraine will eventually become a member. It has also emphasised time and again that it is for the Allies and Ukraine to decide when Ukraine should become a member and Russia does not have a veto on Nato enlargement.

In the meantime, the alliance proceeds by managing the situation with various formulas and mechanisms of Ukraine, short of formal membership. It is not yet clear how or to what extent Nato will be able to address Ukraine's expectations in Vilnius but there will surely be some steps.

Reiteration of support to Ukraine's future membership will be in the summit declaration but a formal invitation is unlikely.

In the meantime, Nato will agree to increase the level of assistance on offer through its Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.

It is also likely that a decision will be taken to establish a Nato-Ukraine Council, a 32-nation group including Kyiv and Nato members, designed to take decisions on the war effort and seek consensus. This would represent an upgrade of the Nato-Ukraine Commission, which was established back in 1997 as a "members plus Ukraine" format.

All aspiring members of Nato must go through its Membership Action Plan or MAP. It is a programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join.

For Ukraine, the alliance may opt for a shortcut, a speedy method allowing it not to go through the whole process.

Nato's new plans show a longer-term ability to adapt

In 1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated. So did the Soviet-led defence alliance, the Warsaw Pact, and the cold war came to an end. Nato was able to adapt itself to the new era and continues to be the longest-surviving and most effective defence alliance ever.

It has three core tasks for its members – deterrence and defence; crisis prevention and management; cooperative security – to fulfil them, Nato must continuously adapt, with the appropriate planning and financial means.

Last year at its Madrid Summit, Nato adopted its new Strategic Concept. It outlined the organisation's values and purpose, alongside its assessment of the security environment and a guide on its future political and military development. 

Under the new Strategic Concept, Nato reviewed its defence plans, especially for its Eastern flank, the major potential frontline with Russia. It doubled the number of battle groups and further increased its military presence in the eastern part of the alliance.

Lithuania, which is hosting the summit in its capital, is now also home to a brigade-sized formation of German troops, with numbers expected to grow further in the period ahead.

Nato's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the alliance is ready to defend every inch of its territory with new defence plans, assigned forces and capabilities and high levels of readiness.

In Vilnius, the Allies are expected to approve these new defence plans.

Nato's defence spending

A few years ago, President Trump made a big issue about the need for other non-US Nato allies to spend more to better share the burden of defence.

At a summit held in Wales in 2014, the allies agreed to peg defence spending to the size of their economies, at 2% of gross domestic product by 2024. So far, only eight of the 31 member nations have met the pledge, with a further nine on course to do so by next year. 

Since the pledge was made, events have shown it to be insufficient, not least the Ukraine invasion. Nato's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called for the 2% of GDP target to be seen as a floor, not a ceiling. In Vilnius, there will be calls to move in that direction.

Nato's other challenges include China

China is taking a more prominent place in the documentation produced by Nato summits.

The communique from the Madrid meeting read: "We face systemic competition from those, including the People's Republic of China, who challenge our interests, security, and values and seek to undermine the rules-based international order".

Read more: Europe: United on Russia, divided on China?

Developing relations within non-Nato nations in the Euro-Atlantic area is now a key aim for the alliance. That is what the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council is for. It also has the Partnership for Peace programme, the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative as major mechanisms to this end.

With the new geo-strategic environment and China emerging as a "challenge", Nato is now building new regional partnerships in the Indo-Pacific area.

Capitalising on existing bilateral relations, Nato has invited friendly nations from this region to Vilnius, for a second successive summit, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.

The allies and their guests will discuss security issues of common interest and concern. Without a doubt, China will be at the centre of those talks. They may go beyond the traditional exchange of views on politics towards the basis of future military cooperation.

Sweden as a Nato member

When Nato was founded in 1949, it had 12 members.

There have been consecutive waves of expansion since Greece and Turkey joined in 1952, West Germany in 1955, then the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, followed by Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004.

Albania and Croatia entered in 2009, Montenegro in 2017 and the Republic of North Macedonia in 2020. Finland's accession last year took the total number of Nato states to 31.

The latest entrant, which shares a long border with Russia, dropped over 200 years of neutrality or non-alignment to apply to join Nato after Moscow invaded Ukraine.

The next member could be Sweden, which could be welcomed as the 32nd ally in Vilnius, but only if objections from existing allies Turkey and Hungary can be overcome. Accession has to be unanimous among members.

Turkey has made its approval of Sweden and Finland as Nato members conditional on them taking action against anti-Turkish organisations active in the countries.

In Madrid last year, a memorandum between Turkey, Finland, and Sweden was signed to this effect and only then did Ankara accept the accessions, pending approval at its parliament.

Finland has satisfied Turkey's expectations and became the 31st ally, as its instruments of accession have been approved by all Nato members.

As for Sweden, PKK-affiliated organisations are still active there, staging demonstrations and marches with pictures and slogans demonising the Turkish state and President Erdoğan.

Sweden also continues to host a number of fugitives whom the Turkish government considers terrorists and has been asking for their extradition.

The rest of Nato stresses that Sweden's membership will make the alliance,  stronger and call for the reservations over its membership issue to be solved.

The US Congress is using its leverage to get Sweden into the alliance. The sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, which it is reluctant to approve on various grounds, is being linked to parliamentary clearance in Ankara to Sweden's Nato membership. 

The decision lies with President Erdoğan. He has acknowledged that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction, including changing its anti-terror laws, but also says it is not enough.

The most recent protest involving the burning of a Quran took place in front of a mosque in Stockholm on the first day of Eid, under the protection of the Swedish police. It has not made things easier for Turkey's approval of Sweden's membership of Nato. 

Hungary is not expected to continue with its obstruction if Turkey drops its objections, although Budapest's view of Sweden's membership remains negative. The legislative season there has ended and lawmakers are not due back in autumn.

Under these circumstances, unless something significant happens, the Vilnius summit will not agree to Sweden becoming the 32nd Nato member.

A new secretary-general is unlikely

Jens Stoltenberg's tenure has already been extended three times since he became Nato's secretary-General in 2014. He has recently repeated that he is not seeking extra time. 

But electing a new secretary general is not easy.

That process could lead to friction, just when solidarity and cohesion in the alliance is of paramount importance. Stoltenberg has proven himself to be an able leader and he has long experience.

Expect him to stay for another year.