Crisis is back in Europe’s political flashpoint Kosovo ahead of elections

The Association of Serb Municipalities, set by both sides in 2015, is a major issue of contention. The problem emanates from what the association represents and what its competencies are.

The agreements stipulate that the association is intended to represent the collective interests of those municipalities in Kosovo with an ethnic Serb majority, especially in the fields of education, healthcare and urban affairs.

Serbs consider it as a board of governance with executive powers for themselves and regard this as a recognition along the lines of an autonomous region. 

On their part, Kosovars regard it as a threat to their national unity and territorial integrity. The Constitutional Court of Kosovo ruled that "a mono-ethnic organisation with executive powers fundamentally violates the spirit of the constitution, which defines Kosovo society as multi-ethnic."

The EU hopes to defuse the crisis via the desire of the Serbs and Kosovars to join the union. It has made the agreement a condition of the membership process as both sides accept that failure to implement its provisions will lead to negative consequences in terms of aid from the EU and the membership process.

Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012. The last of the Balkan countries, Kosovo, finally managed to become a candidate very recently. Kosovo has also reached an agreement with the EU on visa-free travel which will come into effect as of the beginning of January 2024.

The specifics over why recent tension has sparked are now futile because as long as core problems are not solved, flare-ups will occur. The core of the problem is that Serbs consider Kosovo as the heartland of Serbia.

Historic and current tensions resurface during election season

The root of the crisis runs deep.  

Historically, the battle of Kosovo in 1389, where Serbs were defeated by the Ottomans, is the most important episode of Serbian history. Serbs commemorate it as the founding event of their identity. Kosovo also is said to have religious significance as the birthplace of Serbian Orthodoxy.

Elections are close in both Serbia and Kosovo, making matters of identity, both current and historic, hot topics, with politicians on both sides unlikely to dial down the rhetoric or seek compromise.

Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti interprets the EU-sponsored agreement as Serbia's de facto recognition of Kosovo.

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić was criticised at home and he backtracked, stating that  "there is no agreement and Serbia will not allow Kosovo into the United Nations."

A major part of Serbia's diplomatic activity sought to prevent diplomatic recognition of Kosovo and where possible, reverse any recognition.

In contradiction with part of the agreement, Serbia voted against Kosovo's membership of the Council of Europe. Serbia's objection was not enough to block Kosovo's application, which passed the 2/3 threshold required in the Committee of Ministers and is now being considered by the Parliamentary Assembly.

Even though in 2010 the International Court of Justice ruled that Kosovo's independence did not constitute a violation of international law and around 100 countries recognised Kosovo, the rest of the 193 United Nations members have not, including Security Council Permanent Members Russia and China.

This means Kosovo can't become a UN member, a situation it shares with a handful of other nations, including Taiwan.

Back in 1999, Serbia withdrew from Kosovo after Nato's military intervention. KFOR, with close to 4,000 troops, maintains a strong presence in Kosovo. During the recent riots, around 30 KFOR troops were injured.

As a result, Nato has decided to deploy 700 more troops.

Russian meddling?

Some conspiracists accuse Russia of being the main element behind the crisis. Kosovo president Vjosa Osmani claimed in February that the Wagner Group private Russian militia was active in a negative and provocative way in Kosovo.

There is no public evidence to support this claim, but given the track record of Russia, it cannot be disregarded. Russia's war with Ukraine means it has more of a motive for the West and Nato to be occupied elsewhere.

And Russia and Serbia have historically been very close. They share Slavic ethnicity and the Orthodox religion. In the 1990s Russia supported Serbia but, its diplomatic and military disadvantages then limited its role.

In relation to the incidents in northern Kosovo, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that "a major explosive situation is brewing in the heart of Europe, exactly in the place where Nato carried out aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999 in violation of every principle of the Helsinki Final Act and all other OSCE documents."

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia is following the situation closely and supports "all legitimate rights and interests of Kosovo Serbs."

On its part, Serbia is careful in its international relations.

It has not joined sanctions against Russia and has also made gains by purchasing Russian natural gas at favourable rates. Still, Serbia does not side openly with Russia so as not to alienate the West.

Despite the rhetoric and gestures such as placing the army on high alert, in general, Serbia acts with calm and prudence.

The Serbian Prime Minister, while trying to balance nationalist sentiment in domestic politics, continues to pursue the EU track. It is highly unlikely that Serbia will take military action in Kosovo and confront Nato.

Nonetheless, the Serbs in Kosovo will remain on the front line. They may be few in number, but they have the capacity to stir things up, especially with support from outside.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has maintained that Serbia is behind the disturbances in the north of the country.

A major challenge for both sides

The Kosovo government's handling of the crisis has been widely criticised. Even the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, in an interview with the BBC, questioned in his own way, the elections with the participation of less than 4% and the wisdom of trying to move into offices with police backing.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called on Belgrade and Pristina to engage in good faith in the EU-facilitated dialogue. Germany and France are exploring the possibility of renewing municipal elections.

Managing nationalist sentiment with their own political bases will now be the major challenge for the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo.