Ukraine counter-offensive in full swing as Kyiv pinpoints weaknesses in Russian lineshttps://en.majalla.com/node/293411/politics/ukraine-counter-offensive-full-swing-kyiv-pinpoints-weaknesses-russian-lines
Ukraine’s forces have started their long-awaited counterattack against their Russian invaders.
Without any official announcement, Kyiv’s troops are active at several sections of the frontline. It began about two weeks ago and appears to have been divided into phases with a gradual build-up of forces and resources.
As early as mid-May, the number of strikes against the Russian rear increased sharply, as it had done in the summer of 2022 before the Ukrainian counter-offensive that culminated in the recapture of Kherson.
Finding Russia's weak spots
Ukraine's main goal now is to find vulnerabilities in the Russian defence and, at the right moment, break through them, converting tactical success into operational success. The top objective is to reach Melitopol and Berdyansk and redirect forces to the right toward Crimea.
Ukraine's main goal now is to convert tactical success into operational success. The top objective is to reach Melitopol and Berdyansk and redirect forces to the right toward Crimea.
Such a scenario is hardly a surprise to the Russian military, but it is one thing to anticipate Kyiv's general plan, and quite another to react in time to manoeuvre attacks and control the situation on the ground. As the whole world has learned after almost a year and a half of war, Russian military commanders have struggled with that.
Ukrainian servicemen of the 35th Separate Brigade of Marines pose for a photograph with the Ukrainian flag in the liberated village of Storozheve, in Dontesk region, Ukraine on June 12, 2023.
As can be seen from photos and videos on social media, the Ukrainian military generally combines strike-and-retreat tactics and manoeuvres along the front with limited forces in company or company-tactical groups under the cover of barrelled and rocket artillery strikes.
The first footage of the destruction of German Leopard tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles from the US may have given Moscow confidence that Russian forces could withstand the onslaught.
Photo showing damaged/abadoned Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 tank and Bradley IFVs reportedly in the Orikhiv part of the front. Possible mine strikes. Also indicates the Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade is taking part in the fighting.https://t.co/cBqMQcLrIwpic.twitter.com/ZbShWLPakW
In addition, the efforts of the first advancing echelon of Ukrainian forces in various parts of the front have reportedly already been joined by units from the strategic reserve to extend the breakout strip, particularly from the 10th Army Corps.
However, it is naïve to believe that the Ukrainians will run out of forces for an onslaught in a few weeks. The main part of the Ukrainian army is not yet engaged, even the Kremlin admits this, and the strategic reserve units involved in the fighting are quickly being re-staffed.
Over the past few days, the Ukrainians managed to advance in the area of the so-called 'Vremivka salient' and in the direction of Bakhmut.
Russian exposure
As even ultra-patriotic Russian experts note, with each new day of fighting, the depletion of minefields protecting their troops as the first line of defence becomes more pronounced. It is not at all certain that remote mining systems have time to remedy this situation.
Ukrainian assault squads and platoons are constantly attacking through the woods with the support of artillery. This tactic, which can last for a long time, allows them relative stealth and speed on the battlefield. It can be stepped up selectively, although it also has limits: By definition, it is impossible to reach full operational goals with such small groups completely.
It is naïve to believe that the Ukrainians will run out of forces for an onslaught in a few weeks. The main part of the Ukrainian army is not yet engaged, even the Kremlin admits this, and the strategic reserve units involved in the fighting are quickly being re-staffed.
Ukraine's limitations
Ukraine seems to lack the amount of equipment it will need to overcome Russia's fortifications and its air defence to provide proper cover for its mobile attacking groups.
In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defence Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, a Ukrainian military vehicle is hit during combat in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia has upped the rate of increase for military production, and not just ammunition for artillery and high-precision missile systems.
The Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant is reported to have produced 400 new engines for T-90M Proryv tanks and updated T-72B3 tanks in the first quarter of 2023 alone. The Uralvagonzavod plant in Nizhny Tagil has expanded its production facilities and transferred its staff from civilian vehicles to the production of military equipment with preliminary retraining.
This is in addition to the ongoing modernisation of the old T-62s taken out of storage at the three tank repair plants to the T-62M level.
Although modernised and new tanks have long been sent directly to the front, Russian forces do not actually engage them in any serious operations. At most, armoured forces provide fire support to infantry units from safe positions or from firing positions close to the opponent.
Moscow is deliberately concentrating tank regiments and battalions at its troop groups' operational rear to protect them from any Ukrainian penetration.
In the coming weeks and months, Ukraine and Russia will face exhausting battles, the results of which will really make much of the balance for the future clear. Either side can gain the upper hand or Ukraine and Russia will eventually reach another stalemate.
