Full progress for Syria depends on more than its return to the Arab League

The step-by-step approach to ending the crisis could possibly backfire, as happened in Lebanon with Hezbollah. Wider international support may help.

AFP

Media delegates watch on a screen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad addressing the Arab League Summit in Jeddah on May 19, 2023.

Full progress for Syria depends on more than its return to the Arab League

Khaled Hamadeh

last update on 22 May 2023

The Arab Summit concluded with the Jeddah Declaration, named after the Saudi city in which it was held. The document includes two paragraphs on Syria, which returned to the Arab League for its 32nd meeting.

The words marked the end of exile for Damascus as Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad attended among other Arab leaders.

The third paragraph of the declaration warmly welcomed Syria's return, expressing hope that it will contribute to preserving the country's territorial integrity and enabling it to regain its natural role within the Arab world.

The importance of assisting Syria in overcoming its crisis is also emphasised, in line with the common Arab interest.

The Syrian civil war has presented the Arab world with a complex international situation and two possible courses of action.

What happens next will be key.

Two courses of action

The first option involves permanently boycotting al-Assad, thus allowing Iranian influence to persist and grow in Syria. This approach would result in continued diplomatic isolation, financial blockade due to US sanctions, and impede the emergence or reconstruction of a new Syria.

This 2013 pictures shows the destroyed Khaled bin Walid mosque in the al-Khalidiyah neighbourhood of the central Syrian city of Homs.

It would also mean, in effect, that the Syrian people would continue to endure immense suffering.

An alternative path – call it the Arab option – entails reluctantly restoring relations with the al-Assad regime while seeking ways to counter the expanding Iranian influence within Syria.

The key question is whether the necessary conditions for the success of the Arab option still exist in Syria. In other words, does the regime possess the independence required to distance itself from Tehran?

Or is the Arab option, for joint action to address the crisis, based on a flawed premise that there is a way to influence Damascus without going through Tehran.

Regardless of the level of wider Arab support al-Assad may receive, it is unlikely that he will request the withdrawal of Iranian militias from Syria.

For Iran, the presence of these militias is of existential importance, as they ensure Syria remains aligned against its adversaries.

Regardless of the level of wider Arab support al-Assad may receive, it is unlikely that al-Assad will request the withdrawal of Iranian militias from Syria. For Iran, the presence of these militias is of existential importance.

Iran's hefty investment in Syria

Senior Iranian officials have referred to Syria as Iran's "35th province," underscoring the equivalence they place on countering anti-Iranian activities within Syria and internal unrest.

#Assad really rolled out the red carpet for #Iran's Raisi today.

As media keep saying, it's the 1st such visit in 13yrs, but that's meaningless.

The real takeaway is the optics vis-a-vis Sunni Arab states -- #Iran is embedded in #Assad's #Syria for good, you can't change that. pic.twitter.com/wjyUaQLelT
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) May 3, 2023

They have also expressed scepticism regarding al-Assad's ability to maintain control over the country without their assistance.

Iran has invested significant resources in Syria, including manpower, finances, and political capital. Since 2016, its affiliated militias have played a major role in fighting opposition forces and controlling territory, while the Syrian army, due to defections, has had a more symbolic and secondary role.

This means there remains little of an independent Syria to work with, making the prospects of success for the Arab Option extremely limited in the short term. Arab intervention would likely be seen as interference in the country's internal affairs, similar to Iran's role.

Al-Assad is well aware of this and is unlikely to take the risk of separating from Iran or undermining its interests. Tehran has various tools at its disposal, given its hegemony over Syria and its ability to foment tensions across Syrian territory and install opposition elements within the regime.

There remains little of an independent Syria to work with, making the prospects of success for the Arab Option extremely limited. Al-Assad is well aware of this and is unlikely to take the risk of separating from Iran or undermining its interests.

This further restricts al-Assad's authority. Potentially, and as a last resort, it could lead to a scenario similar to the Houthi model with Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen.

Options and risks

The Arab League has adopted a step-by-step policy towards Syria, prioritising humanitarian aid and reconstruction for the Syrian people. That, in itself, presents a particular risk: similar tactics and aid from the Gulf aimed at stabilising Lebanon was seized upon by Hezbollah to expand its influence in the country.

In Syria, there could be a similar outcome if reconstruction aid flows end up primarily benefiting Iranian companies and its de-facto powerbase there.

But there are risks with all the available options.

Relying on Russia to curb Iran's control over Syria would be a gamble. It would require deeper involvement in the war and confronting an opponent more powerful than the Syrian opposition.

Relying on Russia to curb Iran's control over Syria would be a gamble. It would require deeper involvement in the war and confronting an opponent more powerful than the Syrian opposition.

A military parade in honor of Victory Day was held at the Russian Khmeimim air base in Syria. pic.twitter.com/FscxMT2hOu
— Spriter (@Spriter99880) May 9, 2023

Russian forces have previously held back from confronting Iran and its proxies, even before the complications that unfolded after its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow's willingness to undertake such a mission depends on securing its own interests, including the survival of al-Assad as an ally and the maintenance of its military bases.

The absurdity of betting on Russia to contribute to restoring al-Assad's independence is exacerbated by the impact on global relations of the Ukraine war.

Moscow would have to divert its ground forces away from what it sees as an existential fight with the West to confront Tehran, which is now one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's indispensable allies.

A delicate moment

The UN's envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, used revealing words about the position the country finds itself in, calling it a "delicate moment". He emphasised the importance of all countries supporting the step-by-step approach that involves parallel and mutually verifiable measures taken by all parties.

Pedersen acknowledged the division within the international community. But he stressed the significance of reconciling the Arab initiative with the Moscow approach, which includes Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Syrian government.

AFP — Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (C) greeting his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) as Tunisia's President Kais Saied (L) looks on, at the Jeddah Summit.

Then there are also the American and European positions.

For Pedersen, this comprehensive approach may pave the way for a political solution. He emphasised that, while all initiatives are important, it is crucial to determine the necessary actions that must be taken for progress to be made.

Concerted international initiatives, including the Moscow track, may provide more guarantees and increase the chances of success for the Arab initiative.

Concerted international initiatives, including the Moscow track, may provide more guarantees and increase the chances of success for the Arab initiative.

Merely restoring relations with Syria will not alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people under the weight of the current regime.

Without binding mechanisms to achieve the goals stated in the Jeddah Declaration — including "stopping foreign interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries and completely rejecting support for the formation of armed groups and militias outside the scope of state institutions," — the benefits will not be limited to the Syrian regime alone.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, which controls Syria and keeps al-Assad in power, will also benefit from such a scenario.

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