Turkey heads for run-off election with Ogan the likely kingmaker

The results of the parliamentary election of 14 May 2023 are as follows:

Justice and Development Party (AKP) right, conservative:

• 2023 election: 18.548.790, 35.56%, 266 deputies
• 2018 election: 21.338.693, 42.56%, 295 deputies

Republican People's Party (CHP) centre left/social democrat:

• 2023 election: 13.367.565, 25.63%, 169 deputies
• 2018 election: 11.354.190, 22.65%, 146 deputies

Nationalist Action Party (MHP) ultra nationalist with a taste of conservatism:

• 2023 election: 5.235.031, 10.04%, 50 deputies
• 2018 election: 5.565.331,11.10%, 49 deputies

Good Party (İYİP) centre right/nationalist:

• 2023 election: 5.195641, 9.96%, 44 deputies
• 2018 election: 4.993.479, 9.96%, 43 deputies

Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) running in the elections as Green Left Party (YSP), Kurdish dominated:

• 2023 election: 4.574.258, 8.77%, 62 deputies
• 2018 election: 5.867.302, 11.70%, 67 deputies

Other political parties from either alliance which participated in the elections under their own banner performed poorly, except for the religious New Welfare Party. It managed to win five deputies with its leader, Fatih Erbakan, who had already guaranteed his place at the benches through AKP lists.

Homeland Party, led by the presidential candidate Muharrem İnce, who later withdrew, and the far right, anti-immigration Victory Party both failed to secure deputies. Meanwhile, the Socialist Workers Party of Türkiye maintained four deputies.

In terms of alliances, percentage votes and numbers of deputies are as follows:

• People's Alliance: 49.4%, 321 deputies
• Nation Alliance: 35.1%, 213 deputies
• Labour and Freedom Alliance: 10.5%, 66 deputies
• Ata Alliance: 2.5%, 0 deputies

The composition of the new parliament does not allow for any political party or alliance to easily push their agenda.

No one party or alliance will be able to amend the constitution. Either two-thirds of the deputies (400) in the parliament will have to vote in favour or the issue will have to be taken to referendum with support of three-fifths (360) of the deputies.

The political map of Turkey is basically the same as before, where AKP and the People's Alliance dominate Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Black Sea regions while the Nation Alliance dominates the Aegean, Mediterranean and Thrace regions.

To the credit of Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance, they have maintained and in some cases increased  their votes in İstanbul, Ankara and İzmir, as well as in critical political battlefield cities such as Adana, Antalya, Bolu, Eskişehir and Mersin.

Election process and an analysis of the results

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who ruled Turkey for 20 years, as prime minister (2003 to 2014) and as president (2014 up to 2023) faced his most difficult elections this time around.

Erdoğan and his AKP came into these elections with several disadvantages. He and his party faced fatigue after more than two decades of governance.

Also, Turkey has been going through a serious economic crisis. The devastating earthquake of 6 February was a major disaster which the government had to face.

Meanwhile, allegations of corruption, mafia-type business dealings and sex scandals involving Erdoğan and AKP ministers and party members of importance also posed a significant challenge.

In previous elections, Erdoğan and his party held the upper hand, commanding the election process. This time, the opposition seemed to be atop and managed a seemingly successful election campaign. On his part, Erdoğan's campaign was aggressive and aimed at discrediting his opponent.

Erdoğan based his campaign on security policies. He pledged to continue to fight the PKK "no matter what the world says". He said that Turkey "no longer needed permission from outsiders to take action to defend itself".

Erdoğan also stressed achievements made in the defence arena, stating that Turkey "no longer needs their hardware as it is now able to produce almost everything it needs to fight its enemies."

Erdoğan portrayed Kılıçdaroğlu as someone walking hand in hand with terror organisations and out there to undo everything he has achieved during his era, especially in combating terrorism and the field of defence industry.

The opposition complained that there was great inequality and unfairness in favour of Erdoğan during the election process.  They emphasised that he used his privileges as the president and state resources to the fullest, as well as the media. These allegations did not deter Erdoğan.

The opposition on the other hand, refrained from a malicious campaign, adopting a more conciliatory tone. Kılıçdaroğlu impressed many people with his calmness and has been likened by his supporters to a healer on his way to heal wounds, with no personal ambitions.

Kılıçdaroğlu has been leading the Republican People's Party (CHP) since 2010. He suffered multiple election losses, but he managed to pick up and kind of consolidate the CHP.

His party came out victorious in the March 2019 municipal elections. He was able to build the Nation Alliance and hold it together.

With this background, the opposition was hopeful. Polls mostly favoured Kılıçdaroğlu and some even pegged him to win the first round with a margin of 2 to 5 %. They were disappointed as Erdoğan's Nation Alliance did better than expected.

The main focus of this election, however, was the economy, amid high inflation and cost of living, trade deficit and depreciation of Turkish Lira. Most people have blamed Erdoğan's economic policies for the country's economic problems.

But apparently, that was not the case for all.

Erdoğan managed to place security issues at the forefront and pushed the economy to the background. Erdoğan was able to convince people that even though there are problems in the economy, he will make things right if he is elected. His loyalists did not seem to mind corruption allegations made against him. 

Also, Erdoğan managed to impress people by efforts and promises of reconstruction in the earthquake zone. With relatively small losses, he was able to maintain his votes even in the areas worst hit by the earthquake.

Read more: With a lot to lose, Erdoğan canvases for votes with grand gestures

As for the other parties, AKP's partner MHP surprised everyone by its performance.

The party of the nationalists and gray wolves was hurt by several developments including multiple blunders of its leader Devlet Bahçeli and the murder of a popular party member, said to be the victim of internal party politics and illegal business dealings. But it managed to keep its core together and keep its place on the political stage.

On the other hand, the other nationalist party, İYİP, founded by breakaways from MHP, underperformed. Some nationalist, traditionalist members and supporters of İYİP are said to have refrained from voting for Kılıçdaroğlu and voted for the nationalist presidential candidate Sinan Ogan.

The smaller parties within the Nation Alliance (DEVA, Future Party, Democratic Party and Felicity Party) were not able to contribute much, as expected. CHP supporters had protested from the very beginning the equal standing of these parties despite their very small votes.

These four parties entered the elections on the lists of CHP, as they would not be able to pass the threshold if they entered under their own banners. The four parties have won a total of 37 deputies — a number far beyond their contributions in terms of votes they have carried with them.

The People's Democratic Party (HDP), which participated in the elections under the name of Green Left Party (GLP), to avoid a ban, was expected to become something of a key on the new political stage.

Thanks to their votes Kılıçdaroğlu was able to get an impressive portion of the votes in Southeastern Turkey. GLP will have an important place in the parliament with 62 deputies. Despite that, the GLP lagged behind expectations with 8.8% of votes. Polls were estimating around 10-11%. 

Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate of the Ata Alliance has become the star of the election. He managed to get 5.2% of the votes and now holds great power in the second round.

He attracted the votes of nationalists who were not content with MHP or İYİP. Some of the supporters of the presidential candidate, Muharrem İnce, who withdrew after he was maimed by a sex tape shared on social media also voted for Ogan.

Ogan has stated that he will talk to both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu and his choice of who to support would basically be shaped by which side would appeal to them more in terms of combating terrorism and proper economic policies. He also said that he will expect something in return for his support, such as posts in the government.

What next?

Turkey will go through another painstaking two weeks.

Erdoğan appears to have the upper hand as he missed a win in the first round only by 0.6%. Kılıçdaroğlu will need an extra 5%.

The right and far right have turned out to be the winners on 14 May. Nationalists from all parties have determined the results. This trend is likely to continue in the second round.

Sinan Ogan looks like the kingmaker. Whichever candidate his supporters prefer will be crucial.

Despite the tense atmosphere and deep divisions, the election campaign process and first round of voting was generally calm — with a few exceptions.

It may not be so in the second round as a lot is at stake for both sides.