With a lot to lose, Erdoğan canvases for votes with grand gestures

The February earthquake which cost the lives of more than 50,000 people hurt Erdoğan's popularity. He and his government were heavily criticised  for not taking precautionary measures in areas located on fault lines,  as well as, delayed and insufficient rescue and humanitarian support after the catastrophe.

Read more: Sifting through the rubble and political fallout of Turkey's quake

Erdoğan needs to convince people that he is the leader capable of improving the economy, rebuilding earthquake hit areas and ensuring quake resistant safe living all over Türkiye.

There are many reasons why the economy is facing difficulties. Bad management is the most cited one. The economy is under the control of one person — Erdogan — after the central bank was stripped of its independence.

While inflation is the main problem, Erdoğan's policies to address the problem have been largely ineffective. Despite the high inflation, Erdoğan has reduced interest rates, insisting that — as an economist by former vocation — he knows what he is doing.

Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in Turkey has declined significantly in recent years, which shouldn't be the case given Türkiye's massive potential and resources. 

Erdoğan needs skilled and experienced economists who can rebuild investor confidence. One such person is Ali Babacan, the former deputy prime minister in charge of economy. But he resigned from AKP, established his own party and is now part of the Nation Alliance.

The other name is Mehmet Simsek, former finance minister who recently met Erdoğan. While insisting he would always do what he can to help the Turkish economy, he declined to re-enter politics.

Populist schemes

In a bid to win over voters, Erdoğan has launched a number of populist schemes such as doubling the minimum wage, passing a long-awaited law on early retirement, launching a comparatively  favourable mortgage loan scheme, subsidising the cost of homes in urban transformation by 50% and offering tax debt relief.

All these look great on paper, but many economists and experts have warned that the cost of these initiatives could have a negative impact on inflation.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to win back favour after the earthquake backlash, the government has announced grand plans to rebuild affected towns and cities, as well as to improve the quality of construction for future projects.

However, why these measures were not already in place, is the million-dollar question. Meanwhile, hastiness with an eye on the elections and an undertaking of that magnitude without proper planning cast doubt over whether it can actually be done.

Bombardment of achievements

Erdoğan's campaign slogan is: "Right time, right man for the Türkiye century." His alliance boasts that under his leadership in the past 22 years, Türkiye has built roads, bridges, airports, a strong defence industry and is now on the path toward global leadership.

It is true that the government has undertaken several important projects. This can be seen in the launch of TOGG — a Turkish-manufactured car. Ministers drive to their election campaigns in their TOGG.

Also, the aircraft carrier TCG Anadolu — designed and developed by Spain and built in İstanbul — has been put into service. The carrier was opened to the public during Eid holidays with tens of thousands of people visiting it.

The inauguration of Türkiye's first delivery of natural gas to an onshore plant from a reserve discovered in the Black Sea was followed by a declaration by Erdoğan that households will be able to get Turkish gas for free for a certain time.

These achievements have been presented to the public with flashy ceremonies and broadcasted across television channels. Timed right before the elections, these grand gestures are meant to impress the public and win over voters.

And while Turks from across the political spectrum welcome these moves,  the opposition is wary about controversies and questions that could be looming behind each project.

Foreign policy touted as a success

President Erdoğan is also touting his foreign policy as a success.

Türkiye had fallen out with a number of important countries in the Middle East. In the last couple of years, the AKP government has been trying hard to reverse the tide. Progress has been made with most countries with which relations were strained but problems with them have not entirely disappeared. 

On relations with Syria, despite the government's best efforts, up until now, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has kept his distance from Erdoğan. Al-Assad publicly said that "Türkiye should first state its readiness, without any ambiguity, to completely withdraw from Syrian territory and stop supporting terrorism."

Read more: The story behind Abdullah Öcalan's high-profile exit from Syria

As usual, Erdoğan speaks aggressively on foreign policy matters, but his reactions and tone is so much softer in reality, as was seen after Israeli soldiers attacked the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan and the arrest of Rached Ghannouchi, the intellectual leader of the Ennahda party in Tunisia.

Erdoğan is frustrated with the United States and the European Union. He recently lashed out at the US ambassador in Ankara for visiting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, his main opponent in the presidential race.

The Erdoğan camp boasts to the public that Turkey is no longer reliant on any country and pursues its own independent policies. "The days of seeking approval from abroad have long gone," Erdoğan has said. This is meant to keep supporters happy and proud and divert attention from economic strains and other daily challenges.

If on 14 May, Erdoğan is re-elected, his "populist, opportunist and highly pragmatic" policies in international relations will likely continue, as resources from outside of Türkiye will be needed to fix the economy.

Down but not out

Erdoğan may be facing difficulties and may be lagging behind in polls, but he still has a strong power base and die-hard loyalists.

Among his many challenges, the economy is the biggest one. He is trying hard to make up for his losses by making grand promises of what he will do to ease people's suffering if elected.

Erdoğan has a lot to lose if he is not re-elected. Therefore, he is willing to do whatever it takes to make sure this doesn't happen.