Xi’s visit to Moscow highlights Putin’s increased global isolation

Gaddafi was overthrown and killed within months of being charged by the ICC, while al-Bashir was removed from office and now languishes in a Sudanese jail cell.

Kremlin dismisses importance of warrant

The Kremlin has dismissed the importance of the indictment, with a spokesperson claiming that  "the decisions of the international criminal court have no meaning for our country."

Even so, it will limit Putin's ability to travel to the ICC's 123 member states, further deepening his international isolation.

Putin's response to the issuance of the warrant has been to make a surprise visit to the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which was captured by Russian forces last year after bitter fighting.

But even then the Russian leader was obliged to make the visit under cover of darkness to evade detection by Ukrainian forces, and the television footage of his visit was carefully edited so as not to show the widespread devastation the city has suffered as a result of the conflict.

Weakening position

In such circumstances, the arrival of the Chinese leader in Moscow for a state visit will have been greeted with relief by the beleaguered Putin, even if Xi's presence in the Russian capital only served to highlight the weakness of the Russian president's position.

Normally a visiting dignitary of Xi's status would merit Putin travelling to the airport to greet him in person. But concerns over Putin's personal security — the Russian leader is reported to only travel on his own armoured train — meant that Xi was welcomed by Russia's deputy prime minister for tourism, sport, culture and communications, Dmitri Chernyshenko.

Putin, for so long a dominant figure on the world stage, also seemed a rather diminished figure when he appeared at a joint press  conference with Xi, remarking at one point, "China has made a tremendous leap forward in the past ten years," before adding, "we envy you a little bit."

Read more: Moscow and Beijing team up on the Middle East and South-East Asia

Putin's comment certainly served to highlight the varying fortunes of their respective countries, with China rapidly emerging as one of the world's dominant economic and military powers while Russia is struggling to deal with the military and financial setbacks it has suffered as a result of Putin's decision to launch military action against Ukraine last year.

This would explain why Putin is so keen to secure China's support for Ukraine's war effort, even if Beijing's enthusiasm for continuing the conflict is very much open to question.

While Putin made a point of informing Xi of his plan to invade Ukraine when the two leaders met at the start of last year's Winter Olympics in Beijing, Xi's initial response was to ask him to postpone military action until after the sports event was over.

More recently Beijing has invested most of its energy into devising a diplomatic solution to the conflict, despite Moscow's request that it provide much-needed military assistance.

Indeed, the main purpose of Xi's visit to Moscow this week has been to press Putin on Beijing's proposals for ending the conflict, which mainly comprise China helping to negotiate a ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks.

In the absence of effective leadership by the Biden administration on key global security issues, China is increasingly taking a more pro-active diplomatic role, recently playing a central role in efforts to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Read more: Why China is mediating in the Middle East

All the indications suggest that China is now determined to achieve another important diplomatic breakthrough in the Ukraine conflict, starting with the implementation of a ceasefire.

For the Chinese initiative to achieve success, though, Beijing will need to win over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who, to judge by Kyiv's response to Xi's Moscow visit, remains dubious about the proposed China peace deal.

The Ukrainians have expressed concern that any ceasefire would simply allow the Russian military, which has suffered a number of setbacks in recent months, to regroup so that it can launch a series of new offences later in the year.

Xi has not spoken to Zelensky since hostilities began last year, an omission that does not inspire confidence among Ukrainians that China has their best interests at heart.

If the Chinese peace initiative for Ukraine is to stand any chance of success, an important first step would be to agree to Zelensky's request to meet with the Chinese president to discuss his peace plan.