Al-Bashir's iron fist
For decades responsibility for stabilising Sudan's restless population fell to the country's long-serving dictator Omar al-Bashir whose two decades in power was characterised by his ruthless treatment of his political opponents.
This was particularly evident with his brutal repression of rebel groups during the Darfur conflict, which resulted in al-Bashir becoming the first sitting head of state to be indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes.
It was during this time that al-Bashir oversaw the formation of the notorious Janjaweed militia, which was accused of committing numerous atrocities during the conflict in its battle against the Sudanese Liberation Army.
The RSF's rising influence
Prior to al-Bashir's overthrow in a military coup in 2019, the Janjaweed became a key element in the formation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the self-contained militia employed by al-Bashir in power.
Following his removal, the RSF — which has close ties with Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group — has seen its influence increase further, to the extent that it prompted General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese armed forces, to seek to integrate the RSF into the mainstream military.
The move was bitterly resisted by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or "Hemedti" as he is popularly known, who regarded the initiative as an attempt to dismantle his influential powerbase, with the result that the country is now teetering on the brink of civil war, with all the implications that it could have on both the stability of Sudan as well as the wider region.
Read more: Where is the conflict in Sudan heading?
At the very least, the prospect of a prolonged conflict between the Sudanese military and the RSF could provoke a major exodus of refugees that could exacerbate tensions throughout the region.
Forewarnings
While the sudden eruption of violence in Khartoum has taken much of the outside world by surprise — with governments scrambling to mount desperate rescue missions for citizens caught up in the fighting — many diplomats who worked in the region have been warning for months that the simmering tensions between the Sudanese military and the RSF could result in conflict.
While the unrest can be traced back to the years before the 2019 uprising that resulted in al-Bashir's removal from power, the failure to establish a democratic civilian-led government after his fall has led to increased tensions, with diplomats warning in early 2022 that an outbreak of violence was a strong possibility.
And so, it has come to pass, with the growing rift between the military and the RSF being the primary source of the tension.
Previously the RSF had cooperated with al-Burhan during the military coup to remove al-Bashir. Indeed, the RSF was at the forefront of the brutal repression of the peaceful pro-democracy sit-in that took place in front of the military headquarters in Khartoum following the coup, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people.
The RSF was again involved when a power-sharing deal with politicians who had led the protests against al-Bashir aimed at facilitating the transition towards a democratic government was thwarted by a further coup in October 2021, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 protesters.
The prominent role the RSF has played in keeping the military power in Khartoum has inevitably led to tensions, with Hemedti becoming increasingly frustrated at his position as al-Burhan's official deputy. Hemedti has found himself in an increasingly powerful position as a result of the massive wealth the movement has acquired from the export of gold from illegal mines.
