The invisible war in Middle East waterways

The strait is roughly 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, which is enough for the crossing of the world's largest tonnage — at over 150,000 tons. Navigation in the Arabian Gulf is currently not reassuring, leading to an increase in the cost and prices of transportation. Given Iran's targeting of oil tankers, a revival of the International Coalition for the Security and Protection of Maritime Navigation (November 2019) is expected.

American military bases

The United States leads the world with the largest number of foreign military bases in the Gulf. The following is a breakdown of its military presence in the Gulf:

Bahrain

The headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in the Middle East is in the Bahraini capital, Manama, with more than 7,000 American soldiers stationed there.

The country also hosts the Sheikh Isa Air Base on the island where warplanes and reconnaissance aircrafts can be deployed in the Middle East. The United States considers Bahrain a "major non-Nato ally."

Kuwait

Approximately 13,000 US soldiers are stationed in Kuwait. Washington maintains troops and equipment at two bases in the country along with a communication base, according to an AP report.

In 1987, Kuwait signed an agreement with the US following threats to Kuwaiti oil tankers by the Iranian Navy in what was called the Tanker War. In 1991 (after the Iraqi invasion), the US obtained bases and storage sites to store equipment and hardware.

Kuwait International Airport hosts fighter jets and air defence missiles.

Saudi Arabia

In April 2003 Saudi Arabia ended the US military presence and the US moved its Air Force Central Command from Prince Sultan Air Base to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

However, more than 500 American soldiers may be returning to Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh, due to tensions with Iran.

Saudi Arabia currently hosts Arab Coalition forces to support the legitimacy in Yemen, which is also led by KSA.

Qatar

The Al Udeid Air Base, located 30 kilometres southwest of the Qatari capital, Doha, is the largest US air base outside the United States and one of the most important US military bases in the Gulf.

Approximately 11,000 US military personnel are stationed at Al Udeid, mostly from the Air Force, Air Force Central Command, the Joint Air and Space Operations Centre, and the 379th Air Mission Wing. Meanwhile, the Al-Sailiya base, located south of Doha, was opened in the year 2000 and was the headquarters of the US Central Command during the war on Iraq in 2003.

UAE

The Al Dhafra Air Base hosts the main presence of US forces in the UAE, with US drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets stationed there. Meanwhile, the US Navy maintains a small base in Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Jebel Ali port, which hosts the largest port for US Navy missions outside America, is now used by the Marines.

Other foreign bases

United Kingdom: In April 2018, the first permanent British military base in the Middle East, named "HMS Juffair", was inaugurated in Mina Salman, east of Bahrain.

Turkey: A Turkish base and Turkish ground forces are stationed in Qatar as part of a military cooperation agreement signed by the two countries on December 19, 2014, ratified by the Turkish parliament in June 2017, after four Arab countries imposed a blockade on Qatar at the time.

France:The French base Camp de la Paix (Peace Camp) is the first permanent French naval military base in the Gulf region. It was inaugurated in Port Zayed in Abu Dhabi in 2009, and about 700 French soldiers are deployed in the UAE.

Australia: Al Minhad Air Base, located 24 kilometres south of Dubai, hosts Australian forces, and includes an Australian base known as "Camp Baird" of 500 soldiers. Australian forces were stationed at the base after their withdrawal from Iraq in 2008.

China: While no official base exists, Western media have reported on China's intention to build a base in the UAE.

Bab al-Mandab Strait and Red Sea bases

The American Institute of Peace estimates the volume of global trade that passes through the Red Sea at $700 billion annually, nearly five million barrels of oil daily, in addition to warships and cruise ships.

The Horn of Africa is considered part of the Middle East, and two of its countries — Somalia and Djibouti — are officially Arab countries through their membership in the Arab League. Eritrea is considered by some to be a semi-Arab country, as Arabic is an official language in addition to the local languages.

The Horn of Africa has turned into a sort of 'flea market' for military bases, with 16 countries granted permission to establish 19 military bases in the area, which are distributed as follows:

Deteriorating economic conditions in Djibouti are the main driver for hosting foreign military bases. The current president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, who came to power in 1999, has sought to invest in the geostrategic importance of Djibouti's location and turn it into a primary source of income, as revenues from the military bases constitute about €128 million, which is equivalent to about 3% of the GDP.

Washington currently has six military bases in Djibouti, France has three including a naval base and two airports, along with a military zone belonging to the European Union. Meanwhile, Germany, China, Japan, Italy, Spain, and Britain, each have one base.

Observing this trend and its lucrative possibilities, Eritrean president, Isaias Afwerki, has also invited countries to host their military bases in his country. He granted Israel a permanent strategic presence across the Dahlak Archipelago, enabling it to monitor one of the most important maritime locations in the world. In 2008, he granted Iran a military presence in the port of Assab, in exchange for military and economic support for the Eritrean regime.

In 2015, the UAE joined the club, venturing into the Assab Port first for development, and then went on to establish a small military base in its vicinity, which it utilised to participate in military operations in Yemen at the time.

Somalia hugely important

If the Horn of Africa is of great importance to various world powers, Somalia is of even greater importance due to its resources and wealth, in addition to its vast borders and long coastlines that overlook strategic waterways.

Maritime piracy, as well as the emergence of the extremist "Al-Shabaab Group", gave a convenient pretext for many countries to enter Somalia in order to 'combat extremism.' Somalia hosts the US "Balidogle" air base in Lower Shabelle Governorate, which US President Joseph Biden decided to reinforce with 500 soldiers to help government forces fight extremists.

Additionally, a British base is located in the Baidoa region where Somali forces are trained. Britain is also seeking to establish a base in Somaliland (a region that declared its secession without international recognition).

In 2017, Turkey inaugurated a military base in Mogadishu for the purpose of training recruits in the Somali National Army and supporting the Somali Navy and Coast Guard.

In an indication of the UAE's redirection of its strategy in the Red Sea away from direct military intervention and towards economic investment, Abu Dhabi, in September 2019, transformed its proposed military base in the Berbera region (Somaliland) into a civilian airport, according to US media reports.

Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits

The Bosphorus or the Istanbul Strait is a strait that connects the Black Sea from the north and the Sea of Marmara from the south, with Istanbul overlooking its southern tip, while the Dardanelles Strait is an international waterway that connects the Aegean Sea with the Sea of Marmara.

The two straits are distinguished from the rest of the straits in that they are the longest and the narrowest (the Dardanelles is 61 km long and 1.2 to 6 km wide). The Bosphorus is 30 km long and 0.7 wide at its narrowest point. These two straits are considered an arena for competition between Russian and British control of Eurasia which began in the 19th century, and took on renewed significance during the Cold War in the second half of the 20th century.

The two straits currently constitute the most important crossing point for the Black Sea basin countries — namely Turkey, Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine — with 45% of trade exchanged by European countries passing through them, and more than 50,000 ships, including more than 5,000 ships that transport energy (oil and gas) from Caspian Sea countries heading to Europe.

When the war in Ukraine erupted in February 2022, world attention turned again towards the two straits, which became part of the balance of power in the conflict taking place on the European continent, as they constitute the only passageway for the Russian fleet to enter the Black Sea.

The delicate situation moved Turkey to announce that it would prevent warships from crossing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, in adherence to the Montreux Convention, which gives Turkey the right to control the passage of warships belonging to the countries involved in conflict.

The Strait of Gibraltar

The Strait of Gibraltar is located on the northwestern edge of Africa and connects the Atlantic Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea. The British-controlled region comprises a very small area of no more than 7 square kilometres. This region has been a source of tension between Madrid and London since the British annexed it in 1713, according to the Treaty of Utrecht.

The area, which constitutes the only entry and exit waterway into the Mediterranean, is a strategic base equipped with British military, air, sea, and intelligence facilities, with a permanent stopping point for British and American warships and nuclear submarines when patrols exit to and return from the Mediterranean. This base allows the monitoring of oil and gas tankers heading to Western Europe via the Mediterranean Sea.

"If Gibraltar did not exist, it would have been necessary to invent it, because here we are a thousand miles closer to the source of danger," says one of the British army officials. The strategic importance of the strait has increased due to its international status, which, since 1982, has allowed every country that flies in its airspace and crosses its territorial waters, including submarines, to pass without informing neighbouring countries — namely Spain and Morocco.

The Strait of Gibraltar is considered one of the busiest sea lanes in the world, with roughly 150 ships crossing through daily, constituting 5% of the world's oil trade, with oil tankers constituting a third of the ships that cross the strait, equivalent to about 18,000 tankers per year, which is one of the most important sources of national income for Britain.

The Rota naval base north of the strait represents the strong military power of the United States and Nato in the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East. It has played a key role during heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as the US Navy was able to quickly deploy two American warships in the Black Sea from the Rota base.

Increased militarisation

The recent accumulation of military power can be attributed to two reasons.

The first reason is to control seaports that have a significant impact on the global economy, being the transit routes for energy supplies and, the second, is to monitor Chinese trade routes heading to countries in the Mediterranean basin.

The deteriorating economic reality that prompted countries in the Horn of Africa to seek investment in their geographical locations and host the military bases of competing countries is the prelude to the transformation of these bases into a de facto occupation, whether through military force or soft power.

Consequently, the national security of countries along the Red Sea will be seriously challenged.

Therefore, these countries, especially the more affluent ones, should establish joint security and economic projects to enhance Arab and Islamic cooperation and help poorer countries become less dependent on hosting foreign military bases for financial reasons, preserving their political independence and national security, most important of which is the security and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf.

Despite the positive intentions shown by countries establishing these bases, with a primary focus on protecting maritime navigation and economic investments, the repercussions of this increased militarisation could see the return of negative consequences to this region, as experienced during the Cold War. In conclusion, the future looks ripe for increased militarisation in the Horn of Africa by international powers.