Washington concerned but not alarmed over growing Saudi-China cooperationhttps://en.majalla.com/node/287361/politics/washington-concerned-not-alarmed-over-growing-saudi-china-cooperation
It’s time to have a frank discussion about China’s rising influence in the Gulf region. From the American viewpoint, serious competition over Saudi Arabia and the Gulf between the United States and China has yet to materialise. The relationship between the US and this region has, for decades, been based on a straightforward exchange: American security for access to energy..
While there have been some major bumps in the road — especially in the past 10 years — regarding American-Saudi relations, the basis of the relationship has not changed.
In fact, the Ukraine war has made the US realise that Saudi Arabia’s energy exports are still very important to American interests; high gasoline prices are still a very sensitive political issue in the United States.
Biden, twice last year, personally emphasised the American policy of maintaining security and stability in the region. How the Americans provide security is changing, however. The threat is not an army like that of Saddam Hussein marching into the Najd and so there is no longer a need for a big American military presence.
Instead, the US is more concerned over the threat in the Gulf region posed by possible Iranian drones or missile attacks or an attempt to block Hormuz Strait.
Importance of the Far East
Meanwhile, America’s competition with China — particularly regarding Asia — is very real. Thus, Washington has a new Gulf security strategy consistent with the different threats and with America’s new geostrategic situation.
It is important to note that just as Saudi Arabia sees stronger economic relations with China as important to the country’s future, Americans also think the Far East is vital to America’s long-term economic prosperity.
It is important to note that just as Saudi Arabia sees stronger economic relations with China as important to the country's future, Americans also think the Far East is vital to America's long-term economic prosperity.
The Pentagon's National Defence Strategy, published in October last year at the same time the White House published the broader National Security Strategy, categorised Chinese domination of Asia the most serious risk to American national security.
The Pentagon's National Defence Strategy, published in October last year at the same time the White House published the broader National Security Strategy, categorised Chinese domination of Asia the most serious risk to American national security.
White House's National Security Strategy said "Chinese dominance risks diminishing the sovereignty of many states in the Indo-Pacific." Now Pentagon's National Defense Strategy says this after stating that great-power "competition, not terrorism, is now the primary" U.S. concern. pic.twitter.com/3pns1mw4DZ
And Taiwan, since the Korean War, has been important to American strategy in the Far East. It also is a critical manufacturer of industrial computer chips. Biden has said four times that America will use military force to defend it from Chinese attack.
Thus, Washington will adjust its global military deployments to reflect the higher priority for China. Notably, even with the war in Ukraine, this National Defence Strategy classified Russia as a less serious threat than China.
Iran remains a threat
The Pentagon's National Defence Strategy also classifies Iran as a threat, noting its improved ability to produce a nuclear weapon. The strategy says bluntly "it is US policy that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon."
Different kind of long range Iranian missiles and Rocket carriers are in displayed around Tehran's defense exhibition in Tehran, Iran, 24 February 2023.
The document also highlights Iran's producing and exporting missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles and points to Iran's developing naval capabilities to threaten the free flow of energy resources. Washington, the defence strategy document explains, will remain vigilant and accept "measured risk" with respect to Iran.
What does "measured risk" mean? The American strategy is to reduce, but not eliminate, its military forces (in military-diplomatic language "deploy the right size force") in the Middle East.
Two major steps
At the same time the Pentagon will take two major steps going forward. First, it won't base big American land forces in the region, but to reduce the "measured" risk it will train and plan to deploy American forces urgently if the Iranian threat requires.
The exercise in Yanbu last November with Saudi forces and US Marines, called "Native Fury" (the military exercises often have strange names) is one of many exercises the Americans undertake to prepare to deploy forces quickly if the Kingdom faces a real risk.
#Marines conduct a Marine Corps Martial Arts Program course at a Logistics Support Area established in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during exercise Native Fury 22, Aug. 18.
Native Fury 22 strengthens the long-standing relationship with the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces.#USMCpic.twitter.com/XALaGP5Uvg
The choice of a Red Sea location for the exercise likely was a signal to the Houthis.
Meanwhile, the Americans are working with the Saudi Defence Ministry on another big exercise in May this year called Eagle Resolve to prepare for any crisis situation and the need for better air defence, including against drones, as well as border security.
The Singapore flagged 85-thousand ton Norman Atlantic stands ablaze 06 December 1987 after she was attacked by an Iranian warship in Omani territorial waters as it approached the Strait of Hormuz.
The second step in the Pentagon national defence strategy aims at building "a regional security architecture." Much like the Nato architecture in Europe, this defence strategy will involve many countries to cooperate on joint defence plans and operations.
A Pentagon delegation visiting the Kingdom last month held talks with Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council counterparts on next steps. In a 13 February press conference in Riyadh, Dana Stroul, the number one official in the office of the Secretary of Defence who specialises in Middle East defence issues, said discussions took place in two American-GCC working groups following President Biden's visit to Riyadh last July.
Bolstering air defence
The first joint group discussed air defence. Stroul said that the Americans and their GCC partners agree on the nature of the Iranian air attack threat, including missiles and drones.
General Clark Quinn from the Ninth Air Force under the Central Command (CENTCOM) leads the American team in the air defence working group. He said at the Riyadh press conference that each GCC country has a picture of its airspace. If each country around the Arabian Peninsula is willing to share its information, it would enable building one large picture for air defence commanders.
If more states join the network, they will have more "eyes and ears" and will see farther to the north, south and east. The large picture is important, Quinn stressed, because cruise missiles and drones can change their paths as they approach their targets. One large integrated picture could better identify attackers and launch appropriate air defences as early as possible.
Stroul noted that the Americans also want partners to take a second step. Washington wants to work with GCC states to begin planning how each country operating different air defence weapon systems in the region can integrate those weapons systems to provide multiple "layers" of air defence against attacking missiles or drones.
Joint maritime security
The second working group that met in Riyadh focuses on joint maritime security and reconnaissance operations. The leader on the American side is Admiral Brad Cooper whose Fifth Fleet headquarters is in Manama.
Cooper told the press conference that all of the GCC countries participate in joint task forces and that in the first six weeks of 2023 they had captured five shipments of illegal weapons going to Yemen.
The Americans are also increasing their joint training exercises with regional navies and other international partners like Britain. Cooper said that in 2022 the Fifth Fleet undertook 70 joint training exercises but in the first six weeks of 2023 the number had reached 14 already.
Looking ahead Cooper also emphasised that this year the Fifth Fleet will also invite GCC countries to participate in a naval task force that operates with unmanned naval vessels and drones that patrols around the region's waters to improve reconnaissance and early warning.
He noted drones and unmanned naval vessels are cheaper for this task than a regular warship. If these unmanned systems detect an air attack, they would have to connect immediately into the combined air defence networks. The challenges in terms of creating the appropriate information technology and developing expert military staff are clear.
These kinds of detailed technical discussions that involve integrating advanced reconnaissance and weapons systems are unlike the traditional American role in defence of the Kingdom and its neighbours. For example, during the American naval operation to defend oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran-Iraq war, the Americans took full responsibility for the operation, providing the ships and sailors. They didn't ask much from the GCC states.
Thirty-five years later, Gulf states have changed, and the risks to American national security have also evolved. Iran is still a threat, but now the Americans are urging the regional states do more for their own defence, and the US is ready to participate and lead the effort.
Whereas in the past, the US didn't ask much from the GCC states, 35 years later, things have changed. Iran is still a threat, but now the Americans are urging the regional states do more for their own defence, and the US is ready to participate and lead the effort.
This principle of the Americans leading but regional allies and partners taking more military steps for their defence resembles American policy in Europe and the Far East. Americans have complained for decades that the European and Asian allies don't spend enough for their own defence.
While this isn't a problem with Arab partners in the Gulf region, no one in Washington is considering formal defence treaties like they have with Europe and the Far East.
Formal alliance unlikely
According to the US constitution, a formal alliance with Saudi Arabia, for example, would require approval from two-thirds of the American Senate. Criticism from many senators about Yemen and human rights make reaching a two-thirds majority very unlikely.
Having said that, Brett McGurk, the coordinator for Middle East policy on the National Security Council at the White House and Biden's senior advisor for the region has said that Washington will "support and strengthen partnerships with countries that adhere to the rules-based international order, and it will make sure that they can defend themselves against foreign threats."
Speaker of the U.S. House Of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), poses for photographs with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, at the president's office on August 03, 2022 in Taipei, Taiwan.
Two important points make his statement very clear. First, the Biden administration national security strategy pledges American support for joint efforts and coalitions that include countries that are not democratic but which support an international rules-based order. In other words, human rights issues will not block American cooperation with partners against threats to international stability.
The US national security strategy, national defence strategy, and McGurk's remarks, all point to Iran's threat to the rules-based order. McGurk noted that the Americans worked with the Saudis last November — only weeks after the oil decision in October — to deter an Iranian attack on the Kingdom.
The White House said at the time, "We will not hesitate to act in defence of our interests and our partners in the region." Thus, the American security relationship with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states endures even as it evolves.
Vice Admiral Brad Cooper Commander of the US Naval Forces Central Command speaks during a press conference in front of the USS Port Royal (CG 73) Guided-missile cruiser at al-Shuaiba port, 35km South of Kuwait City on June 6, 2022.
China factor
China is also a factor for the future.
Washington understands that Chinese-Saudi economic relations will grow. They cannot complain when American imports from China are growing despite the serious political disagreements between Beijing and Washington.
There is, however, a debate in Washington about whether Chinese investments in infrastructure and communications in the Gulf region is a threat to American military operations in the region.
Washington understands that Chinese-Saudi economic relations will grow. There is, however, a debate in Washington about whether Chinese investments in infrastructure and communications in the Gulf region is a threat to American military operations in the region.
For example, American concerns about the security of the F-35 warplane and Chinese intelligence capabilities in the United Arab Emirates have complicated sale of the plane to the Emiratis. McGurk in November last year in Manama warned clearly that "there are certain partnerships with China that would create a ceiling to what we could do."
As so much of the new defence architecture involves high-technology whether in airplanes or air and naval systems integration, worries about Chinese intelligence collection will be a major issue in American-Gulf military cooperation in the future.
The "Outrageous Anger 22" exercise was launched by the Royal Saudi Armed Forces and US Marine Corps.
Cooperation with Israel encouraged
By contrast, the Americans would welcome more cooperation between Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with Israel. Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl, who is Dana Stroul's boss, told the Manama conference last November that the door is open for states in the Peninsula to cooperate with Israel's experienced military and intelligence experts in areas like early warning against attacks, integrated air defence and naval reconnaissance.
Dana Stroul in her Riyadh press conference said that the threats Israel faces (from Iran) are the same threat against the rest of the states in the region and, therefore, cooperation between states of the Gulf and Israel would help deter Iran and strengthen stability.
It is important to note that even the Americans have had major technical difficulties integrating Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system with US military units' air defence systems. (It is not just plugging in a USB cable.) However, the Americans and Israelis excel at integrating systems and are developing solutions.
It is also worth noting that the United Arab Emirates benefitted politically in Washington from its relations with Israel.
Something is brewing in Saudi-Israeli relations, brokered by the Biden Administration ahead of @POTUS Biden's trip to the region next month. https://t.co/b3qY7tN8Et
The Clinton administration's senior official for Middle East policy, Martin Indyk, wrote in June that Saudi steps towards normalising relations with Israel would gain enthusiastic backing from the supporters of Israel in Washington which then would help capture wider political support for a bigger American security arrangement with Saudi Arabia.
Stroul, in her remarks in Riyadh last month, emphasised that Washington understands that different governments in the Gulf region will proceed on the Israel issue at their own pace.
In the meantime, Washington is working step-by-step to build a new regional defence architecture with Gulf states. The Americans are willing to advance faster if partners in the Gulf region want to do that in the face of the Iranian threat.
