In recent times, there has been significant geopolitical development. The US economic and political power is declining, but it's still the greatest power for the time being. Furthermore, for a while it has been decreasing its presence in the Middle East (as evident by the disastrous pull from Afghanistan). This has been followed by a re-allocation of military recourses redirected towards China, as it sees China's ever-increasing global presence as a threat. This effort was clearly evident by the UK, US and Australia (AUKUS) alliance, which increased the necessity of a Chinese and Russian alliance.
So, what is the AUKUS? It's a strategic defence alliance that includes cooperation in "cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and additional undersea capabilities" which, with several other things, provides Australia with nuclear submarines. This alliance violates the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) article IV, which states that the exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information is only for peaceful purposes.
However, as known, international laws do not apply to the US. This alliance has provoked France, which most news articles covered but, more importantly, China. For the first time, this has perfectly aligned the interest of China and Russia that they have formed a new axis. Announced during the winter Olympics with remarks such as "Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation," the two countries said in a joint statement.
The recent Russian invasion showed the strength of this relationship whereby without china’s presence, as stated by the New York Post, Russia as we know it would not be able to survive. Both countries are in need of each other which makes for an ideal partnership. T
his is because Russia needs an investment and a purchaser for their commodities. For China, the looming threat that the US and its military navy would stop natural recourse inflows from the Middle East ceases to exist. Not only that but its dependence on the sea will decrease.
It seems that claims that China is hesitant to support Russia are too optimistic. As reported by the Guardian, “There are lots of indications that the Chinese are doing more behind the scenes to support Russia, in every sector: financially, economically and militarily”. The benefits of siding with Russia is way too high for China. Unless Russia shows clear signs of economic or political collapse, China will not change sides.
This decade seems like the beginning of the end, whereby the long-awaited conflict between China has finally been militarised. Many have consistently underplayed the chances of the conflict, but a study by Harvard Kennedy school shows that through historical parallels, we are heading towards a war unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two. If not, any sort of friction in the sea may escalate into war. This is known as the Thucydides’ Trap which is a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one.
