The UK government's decision to allow US bombers to use British bases such as RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire for their attacks against Iran has been controversial from the start of the conflict in February 2022. Sir Keir Starmer, the then UK prime minister, initially refused the Americans permission to use British bases for their attacks against Iran. His decision was based on his desire not to involve the UK in the Iran conflict, which he viewed as a “war of choice" initiated by US President Donald Trump—one that the British prime minister believed was not in Britain’s national interest.
His stance provoked a major rift with the White House, as it meant American warplanes had to fly longer distances to conduct their missions. US pressure eventually led Starmer to tone down his opposition, eventually allowing the US military to use British bases for “defensive” operations. Since then, the US has regularly launched long-range B-1 bombers, which can carry two dozen 2,000lb bombs, from RAF Fairford to conduct air strikes against Iran.
The UK's decision to grant the US access to its bases prompted an angry response from Tehran, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issuing a direct threat to attack RAF Fairford. A statement issued by the organisation said: “Any base used for aggression against Iranian territory is a legitimate target for us”. The IRGC also accused Britain of causing the “misfortunes of the people of our region” by “dismantling Islamic countries... imposing despotic governments” and “worst of all” creating the “disaster of Israel”.
Tehran’s threat to launch direct attacks against the UK in retaliation for supporting US military operations has consequently made Iran the main focus of the counter-terrorism investigation being conducted after a suspected bombing plot against RAF Fairford.
Five men have been arrested on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offences after three suspicious vans were discovered 400 metres from RAF Fairford. Police sources have indicated that they suspect Iran is the most likely state actor behind the alleged plot, and suggested that if Tehran were linked to the foiled plot, it was unlikely to rely on criminal proxies as it had in previous incidents, raising the prospect of more direct involvement.
Apart from Iran, investigators will also be looking at any potential involvement by Russia, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently threatened to launch direct attacks against the UK for its continued support of Ukraine. The possible involvement of Islamist terror groups will also be looked at.
Highest alert
The suspected bomb plot means that RAF Fairford has been placed on its highest state of alert, while RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, another UK base hosting US forces, has had its threat level raised to Charlie, the second-highest. On Sunday night, the US embassy urged its citizens in the UK to “exercise caution”.
Concerns have also been raised about the effectiveness of British security operations at these key bases after it was claimed that the alarm was only raised after a local farmer reported that she had encountered the suspected plotters while driving home from a party on Sunday.
“I saw a group of Middle Eastern-looking young guys running off through the trees. Some of them had masks or balaclavas on, and they all scattered ahead of us as we drove back past,” the farmer explained in press interviews.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has claimed that US intelligence officials had been aware of the suspected bomb plot, and had worked closely with their UK counterparts to thwart the attack. Trump said: “We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort, and working with the British worked out great”. Trump told reporters in Washington that the suspects had been under surveillance “for a long time” before their arrests.
The UK counter-terrorism operation at RAF Fairford comes against a backdrop of increased anti-UK activity by Iran, with numerous attacks linked to Iran having been uncovered on British soil. Some of the attacks have been mounted in response to the UK’s perceived support of US policy in the Middle East, while others have been directed specifically at Iranian dissident groups based in the UK.
Last month, it was revealed that Iran shut down a British power plant earlier this year in an unprecedented cyber attack. The facility was disabled for four days while staff fought to bring it back online. It is thought to be the first time that hackers affiliated with the Iranian regime have succeeded in closing down such a facility in the UK, and is believed to be the most successful cyber attack of its kind.
Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, said in October last year that more than 20 further potentially lethal Iran-backed plots had been foiled over the past 12 months. The UK government has responded by taking an increasingly robust approach in its dealings with Iran. In one of his last acts as prime minister, Starmer implemented legal measures to block support for the IRGC in July. The UK Government also sanctioned the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right, a proxy group backed by Iran, blaming it for a series of arson and vandalism attacks on Jewish sites in the UK.
