The fight over Mediterranean gas turns to Tobruk

If the authorities in eastern Libya ratify a 2019 maritime accord between Ankara and Tripoli, it will have wide ramifications. Cue the diplomacy.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, in Istanbul after signing a military deal on November 27, 2019.
Mustafa Kamaci / AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, in Istanbul after signing a military deal on November 27, 2019.

The fight over Mediterranean gas turns to Tobruk

After the downfall of Libya’s long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the nation drifted into a civil war between east and west. The west, based in the capital, Tripoli, has been led by the Government of National Accord (GNA), while in the east, the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the House of Representatives have been based in Tobruk.

During the civil war, Türkiye stood with Tripoli, saving the GNA from collapse under attack from the LNA, led by Khalifa Haftar. A ceasefire and process of reconciliation followed. The ceasefire largely held, but today Libya is still divided between these two power bases, with a maritime dispute in the Mediterranean Sea recently bringing this divide into sharper focus.

A maritime agreement was signed between Tripoli and Ankara in 2019. Tobruk declared it to be illegitimate and, to date, it has not ratified it. But in recent months, there have been signs that it may do so, sounding alarms in several countries in the eastern Mediterranean, not least Greece, with whom Türkiye has a fractious relationship. All this matters because there are vast reserves of highly valuable natural gas under the seabed, so maritime agreements help define whose gas it is.

Setting boundaries

The 2019 agreement delineates maritime boundaries between Libya and Türkiye and draws the western border of Türkiye’s continental shelf and exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In the Eastern Mediterranean, there are no borders defined by international law, so they are drawn by agreements between countries, following compromises. There are other eastern Mediterranean maritime agreements signed between nations, including Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. Problems arise when the areas and boundaries defined in different agreements overlap, as has happened in the eastern Mediterranean.

There have also been geopolitical developments. For instance, Türkiye and Egypt seem to have patched up their differences. Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates (which supports Haftar) have also mended fences. Türkiye continues to enjoy strong ties with Tripoli, but has recently been improving relations with Tobruk and Haftar.

Speaker of the House of Representatives Akile Salih, along with Haftar’s son Saddam (an LNA commander), even flew into Ankara on official visits. These have been important factors in the improvement of relations between Tobruk and Ankara.

The Turkish Parliament ratified the maritime agreement on 5 December 2019 and notified the United Nations. Later extensions of the initial agreement granted Türkiye rights to explore oil and gas in Libyan territorial waters. After objections from Greece and others, Libya submitted a note verbale to the UN on 27 May 2025, which the UN published on 1 July.

The note includes a map outlining the “outer limits of the continental shelf in the Mediterranean Sea”, reiterates that the 2019 agreement constitutes “an equitable solution reached based on international law,” and asserts that “neither Greece, nor Egypt is entitled to sovereign rights in the maritime areas delimited between Libya and Türkiye in accordance with international law”. A further note from Libya to the UN on 20 June accused Greece of violating Libya’s rights by leasing two offshore blocks south-west of Crete (an area covered by the 2019 agreement) to US oil giant ExxonMobil.

While Egypt may have issues over sea borders with Libya, it will not want conflict with Türkiye on the issue

European concerns

The European Council met on 26 June to discuss both the maritime agreement and migration flows from Libya to the EU, after Greece, Cyprus, and Italy requested that the latter be included on the agenda. They are concerned about migrants arriving from Libya and its potential consequences for European security. They also said the 2029 Türkiye-Libya maritime agreement violates the sovereign rights of third states, does not comply with maritime law, and cannot have legal consequences for third states.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli dismissed the Council's conclusions, saying the agreement complies with international law. The Libyan Parliament said similarly, rejecting foreign interference and adding that the legitimacy of international agreements signed by Libya falls solely within the authority of its constitutional bodies.

Greece is worried that the rights it claims as its own will be violated, adding that the 2019 agreement ignores the presence of the Greek island of Crete. The Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, who calls the Turkish-Libya agreement "unsubstantiated and invalid," has travelled to Libya twice recently, to balance Türkiye and gain some ground, to lobby the House of Representatives not to ratify the deal.

Greek lobbying

Athens wants to sign an EEZ agreement with Libya to challenge the 2019 accord. Gerapetritis first visited Benghazi in the east on 6 July, meeting Khalifa Haftar, who received the Greek delegation at the headquarters of his forces in the Al-Rajma area of Benghazi. Gerapetritis returned to Libya on 15 July, this time for talks with Tripoli, meeting Presidential Council chair Mohammed Al-Menfi and Prime Minister Hamid Dbeibeh. They discussed joint cooperation in commercial and cultural fields, migration, and maritime border delimitation.

Greek hopes for a maritime agreement for now remain just that, with suggestions that they will remain unfulfilled. On 8 July, just days before Gerapetritis was due to arrive in Tripoli, local authorities in eastern Libya expelled an EU delegation on an official visit, including Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris, ministers from Italy and Malta, and the EU Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration.

Egypt is close to Haftar and Tobruk, so Gerapetritis met his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, on 4 July, to ask the Egyptians to convince Haftar not to ratify the 2019 agreement. Türkiye and Egypt have been at odds over Libya, with talk of a military clash at one point, but it never came to that. While Egypt may have issues over sea borders with Libya, it will not want conflict with Türkiye on the issue. Currently, Turkish-Egyptian relations are such that diplomatic solutions are always possible.  

As ever, Greek diplomats are mobilised in Brussels, but their lobbying is unlikely to stop the trend of increasing cooperation and improving relations between Libyans and Türkiye. Knowing this, Greece is using whatever leverage it still has, not least by taking Türkiye-EU relations hostage. The fight over Mediterranean gas is bubbling up.

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