If Brexit had gone as scheduled, the United Kingdom would have been out of the European Union by March 29 of this year and Brits would have lived through the first two months out of the EU. However, the last six months have been mired by parliamentary battles, MPs quitting their respective parties and Theresa May putting her deal to parliament and losing every time. With the March deadline looming closer, Theresa May had little choice but to request an extension from the EU, lest risking the prospects of her country crashing out of the EU without a deal. The UK has now taken part in the European election, something that most Brexiters, initially, wanted to avoid, but just as exit polls indicate a Brexit Party victory, it is these ardent Brexiters who can be the most happy with the elections.
WHY THE EU ELECTIONS ARE CONTROVERSIAL
Many staunch Brexiters wanted to the UK to withdraw from the European Union and its bodies by any means necessary and as soon as possible. Now the UK is participating in one of the EU’s processes and depending on how long the Brexit deadlock will be British MEPs (members of European Parliament) will be part of EU legislation. This is the opposite of what Brexiters wanted as they wished to move away from EU legislation, not partake in it. However, when former UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, registered his Brexit Party last February many frustrated Leave voters became more welcoming towards participating in the EU elections, this enthusiasm grew more when the Party officially launched their election campaign in April. Despite the fact that the Party is only a few months old, it has garnered large support from frustrated Brexiters who are not happy with how the political establishment has handled the withdrawal process. Moreover, the party has managed to garner support from traditional Tory voters, many of whom are unsatisfied with May’s drawbacks and incompetence. The Conservative Party has taken heavy losses for the past few months, as the latest YouGov poll before election placed the Tories in fifth place with only 7 percent of those polled intend to vote for them, meanwhile, the Brexit Party standed at first place as 37 percent of those polled said they would vote for them. This isn’t the first time that Farage has been able to take votes away from the Tories, back in 2015 General Election the Eurosceptic UKIP (which was under Farage’s leadership) managed to gain two seats in Britain’s parliament, marking the first time the party has ever done that. Even before the elections, polls indicated that UKIP would make a breakthrough, so to discourage people from voting UKIP former Prime Minister, David Cameron, promised to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU if he won the election. He did indeed win the election and a referendum was held the following year, and the rest is history. Speaking of UKIP, even though the party has previously managed to do well in European elections, it is currently polled at only 3 percent. The reasons for UKIP’s demise might be due to the fact that its former charismatic leader, Farage, decided to quit the party last December, citing the fact that he was unhappy with the direction that the party was following under the leadership of Gerard Batten. It should be noted that Batten has indeed made many questionable decisions since taking over the party; one such decision was appointing anti-Islam and former EDL leader, Tommy Robinson, as his political advisor. He has also allowed controversial members, such as YouTube political commentator Carl Benjamin (better known by his YouTube username Sargon of Akkad), to run for seats in the parliamentary elections. For the longest time, Farage managed to put a cap on controversial members of UKIP and presented a more “cultured” outlook on the party and would have probably barred such figures from becoming members.
TORY AND LABOR IN SHAMBLES
The Prime Minister’s actions have prompted criticism from within her own party, for instance, Tory backbencher and Brexiter, Jacob Rees-Mogg has called for the Prime Minister to step down citing the fact that most Tory members he has been meeting recently have told him they would be voting for the Brexit party. He further warned about the hard times his party would face if it comes in fifth in the elections. Jeremy Corbyn’s agreement to hold cross-party talks with the Prime Minister and his reluctance to back a second referendum has caused him to lose support from part of his largely young and pro-EU voter base, thus Labor is currently polling in third place behind the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party. In an ironic twist, the ones who can be the happiest with the elections are those who are most vehemently against the European Union in the first place.
WHY BREXIT AND LIB-DEMS ARE AHEAD
While smaller parties have not traditionally made big gains in domestic elections, European elections have recently given them an outlet to perform better and escape the rigid two-party system. The 2009 European elections was an important turning point which saw Farage’s UKIP gain 13 seats, which made it tie with Labor and come in second to Conservative which won 26 seats. The following election in 2014 was a blow for the Conservatives, as UKIP won 24 seats while they themselves came in third with 19 seats, Labor did not fare better as they came in second with 20 seats. While doing well in European elections has not traditionally reflected a good performance in domestic elections (for instance Labor lost its European majority in 1999 but stayed in power in the UK until 2010), many agree that this year’s election cycle is different. Moreover, many predicted that the Brexit deadlock might spell the beginning of the end of the UK’s two-party system, as more small parties have starting gaining leeway. To answer the question as to why the Brexit Party and Lib-Dems have done well in the polls, simply put it’s because they’re the only parties that have a clear vision on Brexit and they lack major internal divisions that have proved to be cumbersome for the other two major parties. The Conservative Party’s MPs are divided over the Brexit issue as some back remaining while others want to go out, moreover, Theresa May herself did not want to leave the EU and has chosen to pursue a “halfway” deal that pleased no one. The Labor Party is also divided over the question of respecting the vote and leaving or remaining within the EU, while many MPs have called for a second referendum, Jeremy Corbyn has been reluctant to do the same. One could say that Corbyn wants to avoid alienating his working class base, many of whom voted for Brexit, but as a result, he has alienated his young voter base which is largely against leaving the EU. Recently, Richard Corbett, the leader of Labor’s MEPs, has warned Corbyn that he could face a mass exodus of young, pro-EU voters if he does not back a second Brexit referendum. The anti-Brexit Change UK has not done a good job marketing itself and in a lot of ways, it looks like a hodgepodge of disgruntled former Labor and Tory MPs, rather than a functioning party.
On the other hand, the Brexit Party has done an extensive campaign appealing to leave voters and has gained name recognition despite how young it is. Furthermore, the party has also benefitted from having a cult of personality figure, such as Farage, as its leader and founder. More importantly, Farage has reflected a loud and clear message: out means out. Unlike the Tories and Labor, the Liberal-Democrats have called for a second EU referendum without any ifs, buts or maybes, and that simple basis alone has enabled it to gain support from remainers. Moreover, the Liberal-Democrats have the name recognition and structure necessary to make it the leading anti-Brexit party.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Even though the elections have already happened, the European Parliament will not sit their first session until July 2; the MEPs will also have a summer break and meet again in September. In theory, if a withdrawal agreement is finalized before July or even September, then British MEPs would not have to sit through the coming parliamentary session and would not have an impact on the European parliament. However, as long the UK remains within the EU, the 73 UK MEPs will remain in their parliamentary seats. If or when the UK withdraws from the EU, then the 73 seats that the UK has will be allocated to other European states. However, if the exit polls are to be trusted then the anti-EU Brexit Party will gain most of the UK’s seats. This could cause even more problems for the EU as the far right Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) coalition is set to gain many seats in parliament. This coalition contains many of Europe’s notorious anti-EU parties such as the French National Rally, Austria’s Freedom Party and UKIP, so if the Brexit Party makes an impact in the elections it may join forces with the coalition. One thing is for certain, the European election results might be an indicator for major changes within British domestic politics in the near future, major changes that might be irreversible.
