Cairo's adversaries seem to be on the same page

Illicit mining near the Egypt-Sudan border has surged since the Sudanese civil war began in April 2023, posing a security challenge for Egypt, which has deployed more troops to the area. "This has increased pressure on the Armed Forces," said retired Gen. Mohamed al-Ghabari. Speaking to Al Majalla, he said the deployment included border guards and drones for patrols.

One of many headaches

Egypt's challenges in northern Sudan are the latest of its border headaches, with security concerns also emanating from Gaza to the east and Libya to the west. Before the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) began its civil war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), it co-patrolled the 1,270km border with Egypt. Now Egypt must do so alone, but a sharp uptick in mining near the perimeter makes the task much harder.

There is uproar in Sudan after the bombing of the miners, with two Egyptian truck drivers being attacked and killed at a market near southern Khartoum shortly after news had spread. A third driver was badly injured. This led Cairo to suspend the transit of trucks bound for Sudan via the Qustul land port, as anti-Egypt protests erupted across the country.

Egypt-Sudan bilateral trade is dominated by Egyptian exports, so Sudan stands to lose out from the arrangement. The two states had developed a barter-style trading system designed to bypass international currency restrictions and sanctions affecting some Sudanese businesses. Furthermore, Egypt has so far provided sanctuary to hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees displaced by war. Some estimates put the figure at 1.5 million.

Cairo supports the SAF diplomatically and politically, since Sudan's security is linked to its own. Egypt also has a long-standing policy of supporting state institutions and legitimate governments in the face of threats from non-state actors and militias. This policy has been borne out in countries such as Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen, Egyptian analysts said.

The Egyptian airstrikes seem to have left the SAF (which is based in Port Sudan) facing sharp domestic criticism for not castigating Cairo, with the ruling Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) having only expressed condolences to the victims' families and ordered an inquiry. Some think the Egyptian army's statement gives cover to the SAF and the TSC, confirming that the strikes did not occur on Sudanese soil.

Coincidental backlash?

Other foreign actors, such as those who back the RSF, may want to drive a wedge between Cairo and Port Sudan. Indeed, the biggest protests against Egypt's airstrikes were in RSF strongholds, and most anti-Egypt sentiment on social media came from RSF backers. Coincidence?

With its propaganda blitz against both the SAF and Egypt, the RSF is trying to kill two birds with one stone, given that Egypt is by far the SAF's staunchest backer. Meanwhile, by targeting illicit Sudanese gold mining, Egypt is squeezing an important source of RSF financing. Gold mining provides the RSF with millions of dollars annually. Sudanese political analyst Osman al-Merghani said the militia now controls most of the gold mines that were once operated by the Sudanese government. "It exports gold extracted from these mines to bankroll its activities and operations against the SAF," he told Al Majalla.

With Egypt facing many security challenges, the RSF may be testing Cairo's limits. Time will tell whether Egypt takes the bait.