Politics

Deadlock in UN succession battle could leave a vacuum

According to confidential documents seen by Al Majalla, the United States does not want Guterres to remain in office beyond the end of his second five-year term

Al Majalla

Al Majalla - London

last update on 01 Sep 2026

Divisions within the United Nations Security Council over who should be the organisation’s new secretary-general risk prolonged deadlock and a void after current post-holder António Guterres’s term expires on 31 December.

According to confidential documents seen by Al Majalla, the United States does not want Guterres to remain in office beyond the end of his second five-year term, even temporarily, removing one option for managing any delay in choosing his successor. Washington favours Rafael Grossi, the Argentine diplomat who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to diplomats familiar with the process.

Grossi is no shoo-in, however, since he faces resistance from other permanent members of the Security Council, including Russia. Meanwhile, several European governments, particularly the Nordic countries, want to see the first female UN secretary-general. Contenders include Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, who heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, a former foreign minister and former ambassador to the UN.

Competing priorities have heightened concern among diplomats that no candidate will quickly secure the nine Security Council votes needed, while also avoiding a veto from any of its five permanent members: the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France. Under the UN Charter, the General Assembly appoints the secretary-general on the recommendation of the Security Council, but there is no explicit provision automatically extending an incumbent’s tenure if the Council fails to agree on a successor.

Leadership at stake

A prolonged succession battle could affect far more than the office of the secretary-general. Many senior UN officials, including under-secretaries-general who head major departments, serve on fixed-term appointments made by the secretary-general. UN staff rules provide that under-secretaries-general and assistant secretaries-general are normally appointed for terms of up to five years, with the possibility of extension, but fixed-term appointments carry no expectation of renewal.

Reuters — US President Donald Trump meets UN Secretary-General António Guterres during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York on 23 September 2025.

Diplomats and UN officials told Al Majalla that the transition could lead to high turnover among senior officials appointed during the Guterres era, particularly those heading politically important departments. A new secretary-general would normally want considerable latitude to shape their senior management team and could decide against renewing the mandates of those appointed by their predecessor.

Although the organisation’s bureaucracy and operations would continue to function under existing delegations of authority in the absence of a secretary-general on 1 January, questions could nevertheless arise over who has the power to make or renew senior appointments and to exercise responsibilities that the Charter entrusts specifically to the secretary-general. Staffing could prove especially sensitive in departments dealing with political affairs, peace and security, and humanitarian work.

Been here before

The United Nations has faced a similar impasse before. In 1950, after the Security Council failed to agree on the reappointment of the first secretary-general, Trygve Lie, the General Assembly voted to keep him in office for a further three years without a fresh recommendation from the Council. The decision was controversial because Article 97 of the UN Charter gives the Security Council a formal role in appointing the secretary-general.

The US backs nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi to succeed António Guterres, but he is not universally popular, and Security Council members have a veto

Diplomats say there is little appetite for repeating that precedent. Any attempt by the General Assembly to extend Guterres's tenure without a new recommendation from the Security Council would likely meet strong American opposition and could trigger a dispute over the General Assembly's authority. It is also unclear whether Guterres could command sufficiently broad support in the General Assembly for such a step.

Recent tensions between the Security Council and the General Assembly underline how difficult such a move would be. Earlier this month, the US publicly accused General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock of exceeding her authority in selecting the next secretary-general. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia later said Moscow shared Washington's concerns over the role Baerbock was seeking for the General Assembly.

The unusual alignment between Washington and Moscow, despite backing different candidates, suggested that the permanent members would defend the Security Council's prerogatives in the selection process, making any attempt by the General Assembly to break the deadlock by extending Guterres's term much less likely.

Seeking a compromise

Diplomats say the most likely solution would be a compromise candidate. If Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, or Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett cannot overcome objections from the permanent members, Council governments may look for an alternative. Indeed, the UN has seen such eleventh-hour compromises before.

After Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld was killed in a plane crash in September 1961, the Security Council eventually agreed on Burmese ambassador U Thant as acting secretary-general. The General Assembly appointed him in November to serve out the remainder of Hammarskjöld's term. He was later appointed secretary-general in his own right. This 1961 precedent could offer a model if the Council reaches December without an agreement.

Rather than immediately choosing someone for a full five-year term, the permanent members could settle on an acting secretary-general acceptable to all sides while negotiations continue. One name circulating informally is Nikolay Mladenov, the former UN envoy to the Middle East who now serves as High Representative for Gaza at the US-backed Board of Peace.

Some question whether he could command broad support in the Council and point to what they describe as his unimpressive performance in overseeing the implementation of the Gaza arrangements. Although there is no public indication that Mladenov has formally entered the race, his name nonetheless illustrates the kind of late entrant who might emerge if the declared candidates are blocked by competing vetoes.

Getty — Nickolay Mladenov, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, attends the inauguration ceremony for the second and third phases of the seawater desalination plant in Gaza City, Gaza, on 4 December 2019.

Looming deadline

The Security Council has begun using informal straw polls to gauge support for the candidates. Such ballots are intended to narrow the field before the Council holds the formal vote required to recommend a candidate to the General Assembly. The second round of informal voting, held on 21 August, showed how close the contest remains.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett led with eight 'encourage' votes, while Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi each got seven. Grossi, however, drew six 'discourage' votes, compared with four for Grynspan and three for Rodrigues-Birkett. The ballots cast by the five permanent members were not distinguished from those of the elected members, so the results did not reveal whether any candidate could be vetoed.

Historically, the final choice is often not the frontrunner but the candidate who can avoid the opposition of all five permanent members of the Council. That could make the final weeks of 2026 particularly fraught and may mean the Council settles on a previously overlooked candidate, or agrees on an acting secretary-general as an interim solution.

Negotiations may come down to the wire. Washington's position on Guterres leaving means that 31 December is a hard political deadline. With the tenure of senior officials also under scrutiny, the dispute could extend well beyond who occupies the secretary-general's office. It could determine who controls the UN's senior leadership from 1 January, and how much of the Guterres administration survives.

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