Since the October 7 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the balance of power in the Middle East has changed profoundly. Iran’s regional ‘Axis of Resistance’, once seen as a coherent network of influence stretching from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, has been dealt a series of devastating blows.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah—a key player in the axis—has been particularly affected. The walls appear to be closing in on the group from all directions. On one side, the regional axis as a whole has been weakened; on the other, Israel has decapitated its leadership and significantly degraded its weapons arsenal. Furthermore, it has experienced setbacks at home with the formation of a new government that has stressed the need to restore state authority, disarm Hezbollah, and curb Iranian influence in the country.
Making matters worse, it is now being threatened with an Israeli troop invasion, with some Israeli officials openly calling for creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River and others going so far as to call for annexing southern Lebanon in its entirety. This has pushed Lebanon’s southern population, mostly Shiites, from their homes and into predominantly Sunni and Christian areas, creating intercommunal friction that threatens civil strife.
As these pressure nodes intensify, the walls appear to be closing in on the Lebanese group that has ruled supreme for the greater part of the 21st century, prompting the question: is it The end of Hezbollah? This is the topic of this week’s cover story.
Al Majalla unpacks the scenarios facing the group from all angles: international, regional and domestic. While Hezbollah is unlikely to disappear entirely, a more plausible outcome is that it changes its function and orientation. The developments of the coming weeks will be telling, especially if Israel is able to make significant gains on the battleground.
Read more:
1. Hezbollah's fate likely linked to US-Iran war outcome by Lina Khatib
2. Lebanon’s stability requires steadier US engagement by Brian Katulis
3. Why proposed Israel-Lebanon talks are so important by Michael Harari
4. Lebanon's failure to disarm Hezbollah comes with a price by David Schenker
5. Beirut's daily grind: between refuge, ruin and routine by Mimoza Al-Arrawi
6. War typically unites societies. But not in Lebanon. by Houssam Itani
