Can Iran and the US find an off-ramp to avert war?

Trump says he is mulling renewed talks with Tehran over its nuclear programme, but his decision to slap more sanctions on Iran bodes badly for good-faith negotiations

Can Iran and the US find an off-ramp to avert war?

Ever since the latest wave of anti-government protests swept Iran at the start of the year, US President Donald Trump has deliberately given the impression that he is prepared to intervene militarily to end the bloodshed.

The Iranian regime has certainly been under no illusions about the possibility of the US launching a fresh round of military strikes against it after the Trump administration’s controversial intervention in Venezuela, which resulted in the seizure of the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro.

There has also been a marked increase in global tensions over Trump’s threat to seize control of Greenland, the Arctic country that has become the latest focus of the great-power rivalry among the US, Russia and China.

In this context, the possibility that Trump may be prepared to renew hostilities against Tehran has been viewed with the utmost seriousness by Iran’s leaders as they have struggled to contain the latest wave of nationwide protests, which broke out in late December after a sudden 40% plunge in the value of the rial, the country's currency.

Mossad hand?

At the time, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent out a bold tweet saying: 'Happy New Year to Iranians and Mossad agents beside them." Protests then took a violent turn, with unconfirmed numbers of killed between protesters, or "rioters" as Iran's government calls them and security officers that range from hundreds to the thousands.

For his part, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, shifted from advocating civil disobedience to calling for a direct takeover of city centres, drawing accusations of ‘terrorism’ from Iran. And Trump seemed to echo the sentiment when he told Iranians to "keep protesting" after they subsided in the early new year, promising "help was on the way".

The prospect of an American or Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation stoked fears of a wider regional war

All of this has confirmed Iranian suspicions that the real aim of the protests is the overthrow of the regime. The prospect of an American or Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation stoked fears of a wider regional war. To this end, US and UK nationals are being evacuated from military bases and diplomatic missions in Qatar and Tehran.

In an attempt to ease tensions, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi made a surprise appearance on Fox News—the right-wing television channel watched by Trump—to insist that the regime had no plans to execute anti-government protesters.

Open to talks

Tehran has also indicated that it is willing to reopen talks with the Trump administration on the future of its nuclear programme and other regional issues, which had been the subject of previous negotiations earlier last year, but came to a crashing halt after the US and Israel began bombing the country in mid June.

Trump's response to the suggestion so far has been lukewarm, with the American leader remarking that, while such a meeting was being planned, it could still be derailed if Tehran maintained its crackdown against the protesters.

"The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate," Trump told reporters during a briefing on Air Force One.

And while renewed talks with Tehran over its nuclear programme are still being kept as an option, Trump's decision to slap more sanctions on Iran bodes badly for good-faith negotiations

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