One of recent history’s most enduring lessons is that great, generational alliances are seldom built on handshakes alone. They survive when they are lifted from the personal to the permanent, and when they are placed above those shaking hands. For years, Saudi Arabia has made this argument in Washington, DC. Finally, it appears that the penny may have dropped. The visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on 18-19 November is therefore being heralded as a turning point in relations.
After a seven-year hiatus, the crown prince was received by President Trump with a lavish intensity that shattered every recent precedent, but the next White House occupant may not share Trump’s thoughts or penchant for the extravagant, hence Riyadh’s quiet insistence for years that there needs to be a binding American commitment of the kind that only the US Congress can give and take away. When the crown prince left, he left with a founding document for the next phase.
With the White House in agreement, the focus is now moving to Capitol Hill, with a broad bipartisan understanding that the 80-year ‘oil-for-security’ formula has had its time. Both sides need a new and more durable deal, one that involves technology, sovereign capital, and legally-binding guarantees that future US presidents cannot revoke or ignore on a whim. A strategic bilateral alliance in artificial intelligence (AI) and defence will shape the geopolitics of the Middle East and Africa.
AI was the stuff of science fiction back when Saudi King Abdulaziz and US President Franklin Roosevelt first met aboard the USS Quincy on 14 February 1945. Almost forgotten today is the second promise Roosevelt gave at that encounter: that Washington would “take no action... which might prove hostile to the Arab people” in Palestine. Their pact and understanding was to last for decades—Saudi oil for US security. The arrangement survived the Cold War, the oil shocks of the 1970s, and America’s two interventionist wars in Iraq. But throughout, the foundations were fragile, because they rested on personal trust rather than written law.
Fair-weather friend?
The American shale revolution in recent years has ended Washington’s dependence on Gulf oil, and when the Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil processing at Abqaiq and Khurais in September 2019, the American response was tepid. Suddenly, it seemed like the US security guarantee was revocable. For a nation committed to such an undertaking as Vision 2030, such insecurity is unacceptable.
The demand became clear and non-negotiable: to replace the FDR-era gentleman’s agreement with a legally-binding defence treaty, one that would require the US to come to Riyadh’s aid if it were attacked. The old equation of 1945 had to be replaced with a new one: Legacy for Legacy, Institution for Institution.
Riyadh spoke to Trump in his own vernacular: if politics is the art of the deal, then here were the Saudi terms for a deal that no successor could tear up with a signature. Such a treaty would need a two-thirds majority—or 67 votes in the 100-seat US Senate—for ratification. Riyadh understands the arithmetic perfectly, and it has made clear that any permanent treaty will require tangible movement on the Palestinian file.
In Max Weber's terms, Saudi Arabia has chosen to reject the fragile charisma of personal leadership in favour of the cold, enduring rationality of bureaucratic institutions. For Trump, the request was to deliver the ultimate deal: a treaty that would survive long after he leaves the White House. Some US politicians are against it, not least the isolationist wing of his own party (which wants to keep America out of any future Middle Eastern entanglements) and progressive Democrats. Riyadh’s insistence on movement towards a Palestinian state may give centre-left Democrats reason to support it.
For Trump, there is another Saudi carrot beyond investment; the prospect that Riyadh will sign up to the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel. For the US President, this would be the ultimate legacy prize. But before that, behind the cameras and the red carpets, there is an acknowledged need to convert presidential enthusiasm into legislative text that no future administration can undo.
One immediate and highly visible fruit of the crown prince’s visit was Saudi Arabia’s designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). The title is not ceremonial. It unlocks preferential access to America’s most advanced defence systems, including F-35 fighters; accelerates acquisition procedures; and enshrines Saudi Arabia alongside Japan and South Korea in Washington’s innermost circle of partners.
Yet no one on the Saudi delegation was under any illusions about the limits of MNNA status. It is still an executive act, and is still no 'Article 5’ (the cornerstone of the NATO alliance, which establishes that an armed attack against one is an attack against all). MNNA carries no binding mutual-defence obligation and can be revoked at any time. A comprehensive defence treaty remains just over the horizon.
No mutual defence
The visit still yielded progress, including a package of nine strategic agreements that move the relationship decisively away from traditional arms sales toward industries of the future. During the expanded bilateral talks, the leaders signed a roadmap for transforming bilateral relations, spanning defence, technology, and finance. It establishes joint deterrence and commits both sides to localising half of Saudi military spending by 2030.
In technology, there is a mammoth investment package in fields such as supercomputing infrastructure, intellectual property, and Saudi Arabia’s clear ambition to become a producer, not merely a consumer, of frontier technology. There was also an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation. Washington had previously forbidden any enrichment or reprocessing on Saudi soil, but that objection has been quietly dropped. This opens the door for Saudi energy diversification and US knowledge transfer.
The bilateral supply chain security framework secures supply chains for uranium and minerals (including the components critical in the manufacture of electric vehicles, permanent magnets, and AI). With Saudi Arabia's estimated $2.5tn in untapped mineral wealth, Riyadh now holds a key to Western technological security. Together, the two countries can safeguard the industrial arteries of the future.
Bureaucratic obstacles have now been overcome, allowing up to $1tn from the Public Investment Fund (PIF, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund) to flow into strategic American sectors. Parallel arrangements integrate the two financial systems, align capital-market oversight, harmonise vehicle safety standards to ease trade, and deepen education and training cooperation. This upskilling is a vital component of Vision 2030, especially in fields such as AI and nuclear technology.
The US-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Centre marked the moment when the new partnership became concrete, with contracts worth $270bn agreed across defence industries, healthcare, manufacturing, and clean energy. Saudi Arabia has said that its four-year investment in the US could hit $1tn. Led by the PIF, this redefines Saudi Arabia's economic identity, from oil exporter to partner in industry and innovation.
Embedding relations
Trump’s reference to “weaponised capitalism” captures the strategic intent to embed Saudi interests in American jobs, companies, and congressional districts. Far from charitable, these investments deliberately create a network of economic and political influence in America. Riyadh’s $1tn investment therefore acts as a kind of economic shield, making the US-Saudi alliance “too big to fail” politically.
The US-Saudi Investment Forum’s most memorable session featured Elon Musk, head of xAI and Tesla, and Nvidia’s founder and chief executive Jensen Huang, moderated by Saudi Minister of Communications Abdullah Alswaha. They revealed plans for a half-gigawatt (GW) data centre in Saudi Arabia, the largest xAI facility outside the US, designed specifically for training large language models, including Grok. A second 1GW data centre is planned in partnership with AMD and Cisco.
Huang remarked that Saudi Arabia was “transforming from an oil refinery into an AI Refinery”, perfectly capturing Riyadh’s strategy. Leveraging its abundant low-cost energy and vast land, Saudi Arabia aims to power energy-intensive data centres, giving its American partners a competitive edge in operational efficiency and sustainability. This lets Riyadh become the “third pole” in the global AI race, after the US and China. Part of this vision lies in developing Arabic-language models for hundreds of millions of speakers, thereby enhancing Saudi influence and technological sovereignty.
