Syria-US rapprochement sees surge in cooperation

For a country once closed off to the world and based primarily on a Socialist economic model, this has been a profound shift. And yet, translating these positive engagements into strategic change continues to be impeded by Congressional Caesar Act sanctions.

Al-Sharaa raised the issue with Trump in the Oval Office and was assured the legislation would be repealed this year. To sweeten the mood, Trump also declared that tariffs on Syria would be reduced from 41% to 10%.

Beyond the economy, the most profound relationship-building between the US and Syria has taken place in the military and intelligence spheres. The first in-person contact between US troops and their new Syrian counterparts took place just five days after Bashar al-Assad's fall on 13 December, when an American national found in a prison was handed over by Mohammed Qanatri.

Just days earlier, he had been part of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's (HTS) security apparatus but had since assumed a prominent role within the foreign ministry, serving as a key liaison with the US military and intelligence community. A week later, the commander of the anti-Islamic State (IS) Coalition, Major General Kevin Leahy, was part of the first US diplomatic delegation to meet al-Sharaa in Damascus.

In the months since, the US and Syria have established an increasingly close and operationally effective security and intelligence relationship, run in Damascus through the Ministry of Interior (led by Anas Khattab) and the General Intelligence Directorate (headed by Hussein Salamah). 

Game-changing 'friendship'

Both officials speak enthusiastically about their cooperation with their "American friends"—a message reciprocated by US counterparts who speak passionately about the "game-changing effects" of their joint coordination.

The seeds of joint US-Syrian operations began in May, when a package of US intelligence was provided to Damascus on a large network of tunnels, bunkers and warehouses full of Iranian-provided weaponry controlled by a powerful tribal leader near al-Bukamal in eastern Syria. Days later, Syrian Interior Ministry forces raided the entire complex, seizing everything and capturing all of Iran's prior operatives alive.

The operation's success was "stunning," according to one US official—and the rest is history. Since then, intelligence sharing has deepened, US special forces and intelligence officers are shuffling in and out of Damascus, and Syrian interior ministry forces have partnered with US special forces in at least four raids on Iran-legacy targets and at least six IS targets—one of which killed IS's most senior commander known to be present on Syrian soil. Despite public denials, joint efforts are underway to locate a suitable location for a US operational compound in the Damascus area to permanently coordinate on the ground in Syria.

To consolidate the progress in security ties, Syria has now joined the Global Coalition to Defeat IS. Agreeing to do so was not an easy decision for Syria's transitional government, both due to domestic popular opinion remaining sceptical of the US and due to the sensitivity within several small foreign jihadist factions that remain outside of the government's military apparatus.

Within Syria's security and intelligence world, there is an expectation that their decision to join the coalition will draw some of the more problematic elements into stirring trouble, creating short-term security challenges but perhaps also an opportunity to 'clean house.'

Strategic opportunity 

Clearly, US-Syria relations have experienced a transformational period since Assad's fall. Despite al-Sharaa's "strong past," as Trump put it, the strategic opportunity that a peaceful, stable, and internationally integrated Syria presents has driven engagement, confidence-building, and the emergence of an alliance.

Ultimately, however, Syria remains fragile, and if its transition is to continue consolidating, stabilising, and expanding its control and representation, the Syrian economy must get back on its feet. There are many factors that will help that to occur, but the biggest by far is the repeal of the Caesar Act within Congress. Should that legislation remain in place, Syria's future—and the historic opportunity that its new posture in the world presents— will be at great risk.