Türkiye's intelligence prowess turns Trump's head

From Ottoman spies to a modern reincarnation

Three recently published books help to shed light on the preeminence of Turkish intelligence. Spies for the Sultan, by Professor Emrah Gürkan, reveals how the Ottoman Empire deployed strategic espionage, coupled with tactical surveillance and reconnaissance, to influence the court politics of mainland Europe.

From the Habsburgs and the Holy Roman Empire to the Vatican, the Ottomans leveraged their geography and human capital to become a key player in European affairs. Merchants, artists, and diplomats immersed themselves in local affairs, becoming active participants in political, economic, and cultural exchanges across the Mediterranean and Europe.

For a few hundred years, they were unrivalled, until a handful of Mediterranean powers, backed by the British Empire, began to push back against the Ottoman Empire's overt involvement in European domestic affairs.

Two other books provide notable context: Turkish Intelligence and the Cold War by Egemen Bezci and The Circassian by Benjamin Fortna. Just under a decade old, Fortna's book delves into the mysterious world of the 'Turkish Lawrence of Arabia', Eşref Kuşçubaşı—a man described as the founding father of the MİT.

Eşref, who was from the Caucasus, embodied the resourcefulness of Ottoman intelligence. Despite tactical military defeats at the hands of the Russians, Ottoman intelligence operations, including those involving Eşref, were able to gain strategic advantages against the most powerful empires of the day.

Despite being labelled the 'Sick Man of Europe', the Ottoman Empire demonstrated notable military resilience during the First World War, winning significant battles against the British, Italian, and Russian empires—from the Crimea to Libya. Even a much-weakened Ottoman army inflicted considerable defeats on the Italians in Libya, the Russians in Bulgaria, and the British in Iraq and Gallipoli. A lot of this was down to the intelligence received behind enemy lines.

From empire to republic

Bezci's book documents how the legacy of the Ottoman Empire transitioned into modern Türkiye. From Mustafa Kemal Atatürk to İsmet İnönü, many of the country's early statesmen and ambassadors were military officers who had served in every corner of the empire. No other post-First World War nation had better intelligence capabilities against the Soviets than Atatürk's republic.

Throughout the Cold War, Türkiye served as the West's strategic outpost on the edge of the Soviet sphere, monitoring developments across its borders, from the influx of migrant workers in Germany to the turbulence of Syria's successive coups before the arrival of the Baath Party.

Bezci's book has a whole chapter on Syria, detailing the activities of the British and Americans in Damascus and offering insights into what is happening there today. For the British and Americans, Syria was not just for those who ruled in Damascus, but for counterintelligence against the Soviets and further afield.

The young republic had centuries of institutional memory, and our understanding of the 'deep state' had its origins in 'derin devlet'. Now used by the likes of Trump, Hillary Clinton, and major NATO countries, the concept of the deep state was first coined as the dying Ottoman Empire developed a mechanism of existence beyond its fall. Through the deep state, the Ottoman legacy could live on—not just in the new republic, but in lands considered to lie within its sphere of influence.

Today, the inheritors of this legacy are Fidan and Kalın.

Veterans and 'shadow warriors'

Trump may not have liked that Türkiye's delegation was "too smart", but his grudging admiration acknowledged a simple truth—they cannot be ignored. From the assertion that the Turks 'took' Syria, to Türkiye's role in the Ukraine drone war against the Russians, there has been a noticeable shift in how the US views Ankara.

Even the Europeans, led by Poland and Hungary, have come to rely on Türkiye, not just for intelligence, but for technological assistance, given the unprecedented rise of Turkish aerial warfare. It is not just Bayraktar drones poised to enter the US defence industry, but also the products of smaller firms such as the Pavo Group and Canik Arms, whose rise is partly due to the role of Turkish intelligence, particularly Fidan.

Fidan was head of the MİT for almost 15 years prior to taking over as foreign minister. He also held the crucial portfolio of Turkish aid to the world, a key factor in Türkiye's rise in influence across Latin America, Africa, and South Asia. The TAI Kaan fighter jet has attracted interest from Indonesia and other East Asian countries. While the jet currently uses US-made General Electric F110 engines, Türkiye is actively developing its own indigenous TF-35000 turbofan engine.

The key to global powers viewing Türkiye as a defence provider lies in large part in Turkish intelligence, both in its human and technological forms. Ankara's ability to learn, adapt, and create without relying wholly on the US and Europe now means that African, Asian, and even South American nations can move away from American defence hegemony.

As for Kalın, barely a day after Assad fled to Russia, he was in Damascus. His multifaceted career, which includes academia, classical music, linguistics, and philosophy, means you have a thinker trained in America but rooted in Asia.

Meanwhile, prior to his emergence as a deputy foreign minister before this new posting in Damascus, Turkish Ambassador to Syria, Nuh Yilmaz, had a long and storied career in the shadows of the wars in Syria and Iraq. His role in outfoxing the Russians and Iranians made him an appealing choice for Türkiye and the US to help stabilise Syria.

Similarly, a Turkish diplomat who served in Iran for nine years has been another key shadow warrior who has made the Turks relevant for the backchannel to Iran as well as counter-intelligence against Iran.

The role of the Circassians in Turkish intelligence has been to outsmart Russia in the geopolitics of the Black Sea, where Moscow has no choice but to liaise with Türkiye. Indeed, long-standing Turkish deep state ties to the Crimean Tartars, who are now key in holding off the Russians, play a significant role. Similarly, the defeat of the Russians in Armenia was also evident as the Americans sat and watched. Even the recent withdrawal of Joel Rayburn as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs has been attributed to a Turkish influence. It's an open secret that the Turks opposed his Syrian view.

This, coupled with the fact that the US Ambassador in Ankara, Tom Barrack, is now jokingly referred to as a Turkish envoy to the Middle East rather than Trump's point man in Türkiye, all point to the success of Turkish influence operations deep within Trump's inner circle.

The rise of Turkish intelligence has caught the US president's attention, and now the Europeans look to Ankara as an alternative to counter the Russians and Chinese.