Trump's push pays off as Gaza ceasefire finally takes hold

With Israel facing unprecedented global isolation over its war on Gaza, Netanyahu would be taking a massive gamble to go back to war—especially after Trump has poured in all his efforts to end it

Trump's push pays off as Gaza ceasefire finally takes hold

Celebrations have broken out in both Gaza and Israel following the announcement that Israel and Hamas have managed to reach an agreement on implementing a ceasefire in Gaza, which would lead to the release of the remaining Israeli captives. It would be the first step in ending Israel's war on Gaza, in which it has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in the span of two years.

US President Donald Trump, who has invested a significant amount of political capital in pressing for a deal, was characteristically upbeat when details of the deal emerged after days of intensive negotiations in Egypt. He was in the midst of a media briefing on domestic US issues when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio interrupted him to break the news that a deal had been reached.

"I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan," Trump wrote. "This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed-upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace."

Trump’s push for a ceasefire is said to be driven by motivated by his desire to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which is due to be announced on Friday, 10 October. The US president quickly claimed credit for the deal, declaring in an interview with Reuters that, "The whole world has come together on this one, Israel, every country has come together. This has been a fantastic day. This is a wonderful day, a wonderful day for everybody."

Meaningful impact

Trump’s intervention in the negotiations—which started when he announced his 20-point plan for ending the conflict during his latest meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington—has undoubtedly had an impact, not least his determination to pressure the Israeli leader to end hostilities.

Trump's intervention in ceasefire negotiations has undoubtedly had an impact, not least his determination to pressure Netanyahu to end the war

Tensions have been running high between Trump and Netanyahu after Israel last month attempted to assassinate Hamas's negotiating team in Qatar, which has been deeply involved in the ceasefire negotiations. Netanyahu ended up apologising to the Qataris in a phone call at the White House, with Trump sitting next to him.

And the US president has also taken a tough line with the Hamas leadership, warning that the organisation could face "complete obliteration" if it did not agree to the deal.

What next?

According to the agreement, Hamas will release the 20 Israeli captives still believed to be alive as soon as Sunday, while the remains of up to 28 deceased Israelis, which are believed to be held by different factions, will be returned in stages.

In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, Israeli troops will withdraw from parts of Gaza, and there will be an increase in humanitarian aid entering the territory.

Israel is facing unprecedented global isolation over its war on Gaza, which has been termed by the UN as a genocide, which puts it on a short leash

While these arrangements—if fully implemented— undoubtedly represent a major breakthrough in efforts to end the bloodshed in Gaza, major obstacles still remain before a lasting settlement is reached, including the demand that Hamas disarm—something the group had ruled out before. 

Concerns remain that Netanyahu will break the ceasefire deal once the remaining Israeli captives have been returned, and Hamas no longer has leverage. The Israeli premier did end two ceasefire deals in the past, which is why observers remain sceptical of his true intentions.

Short leash

It is for this reason that Hamas negotiators have demanded guarantees that Israel will not resume its military offensive once the hostages have been freed. However, the group could be banking on the fact that Israel is facing unprecedented global isolation over its war on Gaza, which has been termed by the UN as a genocide, which puts it on a short leash.

This puts Israel in a tight spot, with few friends left to back it. Netanyahu would therefore take a massive gamble to go back to war—especially after Trump has poured in all his efforts to end it.

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