Israeli pressure on Egypt comes with strategic objectives

Their 1979 peace treaty looks increasingly under threat

Israeli pressure on Egypt comes with strategic objectives

The latest Israeli claims of secret underground Egyptian missile storage facilities in the Sinai are merely the latest bump in an increasingly bumpy relationship between Tel Aviv and Cairo. Just days earlier, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi described Israel as an “enemy” and labelled its actions in Gaza as “genocide"—a significant escalation in their war of words.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Egypt of imprisoning the people of Gaza, then reportedly froze a multi-billion-dollar natural gas export deal with Egypt. Cairo’s plans to generate electricity for its 108 million people are now in jeopardy, as it seeks more expensive alternatives to Israeli gas.

On 15 September, Netanyahu met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem and asked US President Donald Trump’s top foreign affairs envoy to put pressure on Egypt, accusing it of violating the 1979 peace treaty with Israel by alleging that Egypt had built military infrastructure in the Sinai Peninsula, designated as a restricted zone by the treaty. Netanyahu claimed that Egypt had also extended airbase runways for fighter jets and built underground bunkers.

Israeli officials admit that there is no concrete evidence to back these claims, but nevertheless describe the Egyptian military build-up in Sinai as “very serious”, noting how Egypt has deployed up to 40,000 troops in North Sinai—nearly double the limits specified in the Security Annexe of the peace treaty. Egypt says these deployments are defensive, coordinated anti-terrorism measures, necessary to secure its border with Gaza.

Israel admits there is no evidence to back up their Sinai claims but still describe the Egyptian military build-up as "very serious"

Israel has long been concerned about Egyptian military reinforcements in Sinai, but the timing and focus of these latest claims reveal the acute strategic pressure Israel is under from the war in Gaza (which is what triggered Egypt's Sinai troop deployment in the first place), not helped by Israeli politicians and diplomats speaking of "transferring" Gaza's population into Egypt.

According to reports, Egypt's Gaza build-up reportedly includes barriers, berms, and China's advanced HQ-9B air defence system, deployed this month. The aim is to prevent a mass exodus of the people of Gaza into Sinai, with the security risks this could bring. The recent Israeli airstrikes on Hamas leaders in Doha have also impacted the thinking in Cairo. Egypt's leaders, who sometimes host Hamas leaders, now ask: will we be next?

Existential threat

Cairo sees Israel's Gaza depopulation plan (driving its people towards Sinai) as an existential threat. Thousands of Egyptians have died in the fight to keep the Egyptian flag flying over Sinai—first from Israeli occupation, then from encroachments by Islamist terrorists such as Islamic State (IS), who wanted to turn the peninsula into a caliphate on Israel's southern border.

Israel portrays Egypt's reinforcements as offensive and now alleges that Cairo is stockpiling weapons for Hamas, in an effort to deflect attention from its own war failures. Disempowering Egypt's efforts to protect its territorial integrity advances Israel's Gaza displacement goal, so the Israelis believe, hence Netanyahu's lobbying for US support to force Egypt into reversing the defensive measures it has taken, just as the Israeli army pushes deeper into Gaza City, pushing 650,000 residents south, towards the Egyptian border.

The Israeli army has been occupying the Gaza side of the border with Egypt since May last year. This was in breach of Annexe I of the peace treaty, which prevents both sides from massing forces along the shared border. Israel justified this by saying it wanted to encircle Hamas and prevent weapons from being smuggled in from Egypt.

There is a growing sense that Israel's qualms over Egyptian reinforcements in the Sinai are geared towards justifying its own occupation of Gaza's Sinai border

The weapons' smuggling accusation infuriates Egypt, given its army's goliath efforts since 2014 to demolish hundreds of tunnels between Sinai and Gaza, and to displace thousands from the border zone on Egypt's side. Egypt had a secondary reason to stop the smuggling, since the tunnels were also supplying Islamist militants active in Sinai—a territory larger in size than the Gaza Strip, occupied West Bank, Lebanon, and Israel combined.

There is a growing sense that Israel's qualms over Egyptian reinforcements in the Sinai are geared towards justifying its own occupation of Gaza's Sinai border, which has effectively cut Egypt off from Gaza geographically, severing its land link. In so doing, Israel may be hoping to sever Gaza's only gateway to the outside world, tightening an 18-year siege of the strip.

Managing tensions

Trump hosted Arab and Muslim leaders in New York on 23 September, reportedly to discuss an end to the war in Gaza and to explore post-war plans for the territory. In recent days, one such plan has been advanced by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. France has put forward another. Netanyahu reportedly wants US guarantees for stricter Egyptian monitoring and for more Egyptian anti-smuggling measures.

Israel's latest gambit risks further eroding the fragile peace between Tel Aviv and Cairo. Egypt may soon be tempted to suspend its security coordination with Israel. Despite its unwavering support for Netanyahu's government, Washington will want the two Middle Eastern neighbours to dial down the rhetoric, for fear of it morphing into a military confrontation.

This may explain why the Americans were quick to send security officials to Cairo on 23 September to meet their Egyptian and Israeli peers to coordinate border arrangements. As a guarantor of the Egypt-Israel peace, the US may feel obliged to keep a lid on tensions. It may be able to, but Washington cannot hide the fact that this relationship is now so strained as to be testing a peace that dates back to 1979.

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