Why Egypt is well-placed to mediate over the Mediterranean

With Turkish seismographic survey vessels actively searching for hydrocarbon deposits in the Mediterranean, Cairo and Athens took measures to protect their own territorial waters. They signed a deal defining maritime boundaries that included Cyprus, the island divided into two territories: the northern part, linked to Ankara, and the southern part, pro-Greece.

Egypt, Greece and Cyprus used joint naval drills, trade and investment deals and other measures to contain Türkiye and its Eastern Mediterranean ambitions. It was in these circumstances that Türkiye signed a memorandum of understanding defining maritime boundaries with the western Libyan government in November 2019.

By late 2021, the political currents in the region were changing again. From 2022, Egypt and Türkiye were heading towards reconciliation, with Ankara pledging to stop meddling in internal Egyptian affairs and suspending support for the Muslim Brotherhood opposition.

The two countries were moving towards fully normalised relations, discussing common investments and joint trade. Most importantly, there were moves toward military cooperation, including the possible sale of advanced Turkish defence technology to Egypt.

Ankara and Cairo cooperated on several regional issues, including political hotspots such as Libya, which had once been a flashpoint in their rivalry.  However, throughout, Türkiye was keeping a close eye on what it saw as the main prize: the potential gas fields of the Eastern Mediterranean, which could yet prove to be the world's next major source of energy.

Ankara initially attempted to secure Cairo's support on maritime boundaries by offering a deal that included control of a part of the continental shelf far larger than the territory proposed for Egypt by Greece and Cyprus.

Shaken alliances

Then came a form of regional disruption that had a profound impact on its international politics: war. Israel's military campaigns in Gaza and then against Iran changed the mood at the highest level across the Eastern Mediterranean. It is still playing out.

The full impact is not yet clear. It may not yet cause an immediate radical shift of regional alliances, but it certainly leaves politics in flux. Decision-makers may soon come to view past alliances as future burdens.

In the meantime, Egypt is in a dilemma. The wider region is gearing up for potential disputes over maritime boundaries and exploration rights for hydrocarbons. Cairo will not want its fledgling partnership with Türkiye to come under threat, with improved relations offering a range of benefits. And yet, it remains reluctant to undo the ties it has made with Greece and Cyprus, which have become strategic partners.

Greece has made its concern over the deal between Türkiye and Libya clear to Egypt. There have been multiple contacts from Athens and Cairo, at the level of the offices of the president and the foreign minister, in the past few days.

It is likely that the issue was one of the main topics covered in talks in Cairo between the chief of staff of the Egyptian army and the chief of staff of the Libyan National Army in late June.

Egypt has a powerful military, including a capable navy. It is likely to become involved in any military clash between Türkiye and Greece, and could well determine the outcome. Cairo will carefully consider its options should any such scenario arise, including scrutiny of the other allies lined up behind both sides.

Greece is a member of the European Union, and the bloc is keen to secure new energy supplies, having been reliant on Russian gas imports until Moscow's invasion of Ukraine prompted a scramble for alternative supplies.  

Türkiye has backing support from the United States and its President Donald Trump, who has so far shown little regard for Europe amid strained relations over trade between the bloc and the superpower.

Leveraging good relations

Egypt has the chance to bring Greece and Türkiye together to forge a diplomatic solution. Any such move, capitalising on its good relations with both sides, would increase Cairo's geostrategic relevance.

It also has vested economic interests in bringing harmony. Egypt has been working hard to establish itself as an energy hub that serves as a key supply point for Europe, and has a vested interest in steering the region away from conflict.

Whether Cairo has the leverage required to effectively mediate between the two countries remains unclear. Türkiye and Greece have their own calculations, and the extent to which they are willing to negotiate flexibly to define the boundaries of their exclusive economic zones is unknown. Both countries have compelling evidence that they say proves their territorial claim to the waters. 

Replacing such heightened competition with regional cooperation over energy supplies from the Eastern Mediterranean would amount to a significant international achievement. Failure to try and do so would solidify the risks that are currently resurgent in the region.

Any violence over resources, or the serious threat of it, would act as a deterrent for the significant international investment required to identify and then unlock any such supplies. To reach its full regional diplomatic potential, Egypt needs to overcome an established reluctance to become a pro-active influence on international politics.

Cairo has a chance. It can help the Eastern Mediterranean seize an opportunity to turn away from conflict and work together for a more peaceful and prosperous future.