Recent developments have reignited speculation about a possible peace deal between Syria and Israel, with debate around the scope and timing of any proposals. Some are outlandish. One Israeli journalist pondered a “potential swap,” that being Lebanese Tripoli in exchange for the Syrian Golan.
This is not just rumour and speculation. Several mediators are currently facilitating the exchange of messages between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Being discussed are the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, the exchange of security intelligence to counter militias and border threats, the demarcation of the Syria-Lebanon border, the fate of the Shebaa Farms, and Syria’s potential alignment with the Abraham Accords.
Each of these issues needs to be examined for its details, nuances, and requirements, beginning with the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, which deals with the territory between Israel and Syria.
Border buffer zone
After 1948, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forced from their homes and the State of Israel was declared, an armistice agreement was signed between Syria and Israel, establishing buffer zones overseen by international forces.
After the 1973 war, US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger led mediation efforts that culminated in the Syrian-Israeli Disengagement Agreement, signed by military chiefs in Geneva on 31 May 1974. This effectively neutralised the Golan front by creating a 10km buffer zone flanked by two demilitarised (or lightly armed) zones on either side, each extending 20km. A 1,250-strong United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) was tasked with verifying compliance.
Acting on behalf of Tel Aviv, Kissinger tried to persuade Syria’s President Hafez al-Assad to include a written clause prohibiting the presence and activity of “non-Syrian elements” (i.e. Palestinian factions) on the Golan front. Although Assad declined to formalise it, he agreed orally to restrict Palestinian groups’ activity in the area.
Ensuring security
He was good to his word, as was his son, Bashar. For decades, anyone trying to organise armed operations near the Golan was arrested. But following the Syrian uprising in 2011, UNDOF withdrew, leading to a breakdown of order along the southern front. Opposition factions, Iranian militias, and Hezbollah gained a foothold in the region.