Portraying Hezbollah’s disarmament and the handover of its weapons to the Lebanese state as the sole obstacle to peace and prosperity is a gross oversimplification of a far more complex reality.
The actual military value of Hezbollah's arsenal is unclear. Last year, Israel significantly diminished the group's capabilities that it had built up over decades. Key systems—including air defence, naval assets, and electronic warfare capabilities—were neutralised within days. Furthermore, its much-touted missile arsenal proved to be an ineffective deterrent as it didn't prevent Israel from inflicting massive destruction on Lebanon—particularly in the south—and also attacking Iran.
Having said that, Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal, however ineffective, still serves a political purpose. It is a means by which the Hezbollah-Amal alliance, known as the Shiite Duo, maintains its dominance over the Lebanese state and exerts control over the Shiite community. This ensures their continued influence over Lebanon and its future.
But despite Israel severely weakening Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still using whatever remains of the group’s weapons arsenal as a pretext to continue to pound Lebanon at will and blackmail its government.
The Lebanese government now faces two choices: the gradual option, which sees Hezbollah give up some arms and retreat from some positions south of the Litani River, or the quick option that requires intense political and military pressure from the state to disarm Hezbollah, risking civil war.
