Iran’s triumphalism doesn’t square with reality

While the precise extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear programme remains unclear, it is evident that its regional ambitions have been tamed

Iran’s triumphalism doesn’t square with reality

US President Donald Trump did it. Just 12 days after Israel attacked Iran, triggering a wave of attacks and missile barrages between the two sworn enemies, he declared the conflict was over. Remarkably, he even thanked Tehran for notifying Washington in advance of its intention to strike al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a move seemingly designed to allow Iran to save face following two years of severe setbacks to both its nuclear programme and regional militia proxies.

Iran had been desperately trying to avoid a direct war on its own turf since the spillover from Hamas's October 7 attacks and Israel’s subsequent war on Gaza spread across the region. As such, Iran didn't step in to defend its proxies in Lebanon and Yemen when they came under direct Israeli and/or American attack. But the war ultimately barged through its front door when Israel launched its unprecedented attack on 13 June, killing dozens of top-ranking Iranian military officials and several nuclear scientists.

Claims of victory

In a televised address following the ceasefire announcement, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei claimed: “Iran has triumphed over Israel and America.” He went further, asserting that “Israel was on the verge of collapse under Iranian strikes,” and that the United States intervened only out of fear that Israel would be completely destroyed.

According to Khamenei, the Israeli-US war on Iran was a massive failure. Indeed, an early US intelligence assessment produced by the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's intelligence arm, said that US military strikes on three nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Iran’s nuclear programme and likely only set it back by months, despite claims by Trump and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth that it had been “obliterated”.

For its part, Iran’s state news agency, IRNA: “This great Iranian victory was not merely a military response or a tactical manoeuvre; it was a frank declaration that the era of Zionist hegemony is over, and the old equations in the region have been broken under the feet of the resistance fighters.”

While Iran retains some ability to orchestrate limited attacks and destabilise parts of the Arab world, its reach and influence have dwindled

However, it is hard to square such triumphalism with reality. How can Iran's government—whose ideological legitimacy rests on the destruction of Israel and uncompromising hostility towards the United States—claim that Israel was on the brink of collapse under its strikes—only to then accept a ceasefire brokered by the very "Great Satan" it loathes? If Iran truly possessed the capacity to destroy Israel, why did it stop?

The Iranian leadership appears to recognise the grim reality it faces: surrender or annihilation. It has opted for surrender, though without admitting it to a heavily indoctrinated domestic audience. The pressing question now is whether it understands that its downfall, if not immediate, is now inexorably in motion.

In the 'Axis of Resistance' narrative, defeat is never acknowledged, regardless of the ruinous state of their countries, the collapse of their projects, or the degradation of their institutions. For his part, Trump reminded Khamenei that he had been spared a "humiliating death" and insisted Iran was "utterly defeated". He even walked back statements alluding to easing of Iran sanctions in response to Khamenei's defiant speech, making it clear that even expressing fictional victories is now off-limits to Iran.

While the precise extent of damage to Iran's nuclear programme remains unclear, it is evident that its regional ambitions have been tamed. While Iran retains some ability to orchestrate limited attacks and destabilise parts of the Arab world, its reach and influence have dwindled. What can be said with certainty, however, is that the era of Iran's ascendancy is over—it is now firmly on the decline.

font change