How Israel upended Ali Khamenei’s strategic patience doctrine

Grand ambitions

But this framework was rather superficial. Anyone who looked deeper into the history and ideology of Khomeini and Khamenei could see that their ambitions went well beyond leading a sectarian camp in the Muslim world. As a Grand Ayatollah, Khomeini was, of course, committed to the fundamentals of the Shiite branch of Islam, but his politics was one of internationalist Islamism with ambitions to reconfigure the global order.

Having been a Khomeinist revolutionary all his adult life, Khamenei has long been committed to this vision. It might seem out of place in today's world, but Khomeinist politics was forged in the heated years of the 1960s and 1970s, when various revolutionary movements championed radical visions. Therefore, Khomeini's Islamist version of global revolution was not entirely out of place.

However, had Khomeini or Khamenei outwardly pursued this vision from the outset, they wouldn't have lasted long as heads of state of a country with tens of millions of people—one with a strongly patriotic population. Shortly after 1979, it became clear that they had to take their time if they wanted to survive. This is when the concept of strategic patience began to take form.

Khomeini decided early on that maintaining the Islamic Republic's power took precedence over all other religious obligations. Even ordinary Islamic rules could be broken to safeguard the republic. To this end, the regime has no problem lying, killing, and torturing its opponents, even though these practices contradict Islamic teachings.

The destruction of Israel

One goal that has always been central to this vision is the destruction of Israel. This was also a goal with which a Shiite Iran could prove its revolutionary mettle against its Sunni-majority neighbours. The Islamic Republic was born at an opportune moment for such a goal: in 1979, shortly after Egypt, the Arab world's leading country, dramatically shifted its regional orientation by signing the Camp David Accords with Israel and the United States.

When Egypt was subsequently expelled from the Arab League, Iran saw an opportunity to seize the mantle of anti-Zionism. Things got muddied during the 1980s, when Saddam Hussein's Iraq fought an eight-year war with Iran in which the US and Israel funded both sides to drag the war out and weaken both countries—a strategy called dual containment. 

Then, in 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon just when its southern Shiite population was being trained by Iran's IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). This is when Hezbollah was born, which ended up becoming Israel's main bugbear on its northern borders. The Lebanese Shiite militia initially sought to import Iran's system of Wilayah al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) to Lebanon; however, this plan was unsuccessful due to Lebanon's diverse demography, which comprises many different religions and sects.

Instead, it shaped its identity around anti-Zionism and opposition to Israel, something that other members of the IRGC-led Axis of Resistance also did. Yes, many of these forces were Shiite and during the sectarianisation of the 2010s, they acted gruesomely against Sunnis in places like Iraq and Syria. But their broader agenda remained centred around opposition to Israel. Put differently, all that has now remained of the Khomeinist global revolution is a mix of occasional opportunist sectarianism and persistent anti-Zionism.

Khamenei thus bid his time as he built up the forces of the axis. Before the current war, he always knew that, at 86, he couldn't expect to see the supposedly final victory over Israel in his lifetime. He has predicted that Israel would be destroyed by 2040, so unless he lives to be 110 years old, he conveniently won't be alive to see if his vision comes to fruition. 

'Reaping what we sowed'

But a Khomeinist revolution wouldn't be complete just by destroying Israel. The next step would be to upturn the political order in other regional countries as well—hence Iran's support for militias across the region.

Such an ambitious vision not only requires the destruction of Israel but also drives Khamenei to ensure he stays in power for as long as possible. Thus, Khamenei attacked Israel to ensure that the mantle of its destruction is still in his hands, but also exercised strategic restraint up until Israel's 13 June 2025 full-fledged attack on the Islamic Republic.

The current Iran-Israel war upends Khamenei's decades-long strategy of fighting Israel through militias without getting Iran into a direct war. Today, his 'resistance axis' lies in tatters not just because Israel battered it but because its only state ally—Bashar al-Assad's Syria—was toppled in December 2024. 

Already, hundreds of Iranians—mostly civilians—have been killed in the war, and key Iranian infrastructure has been demolished. With her typical frankness, former MP Faeze Hashemi best encapsulated Iran's predicament. While condemning the Israeli attacks, she said Iran was "reaping what we had sown" and asked officials to find pathways for peace. 

But such pathways can only come when Iran finally jettisons its strategy of sowing chaos in the region in its bid to dominate it. More Iranians need to step up and push their country in a different direction.

*** This is an updated version of an article first published in May 2024 ***