The contours of Israel's imperial project are taking shape

After making moves in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran, Arabs are catching onto Israeli plans to dominate the region, which are being met with widespread rejection

The contours of Israel's imperial project are taking shape

On 9 April 2003, as US forces entered Baghdad’s Firdos Square, a group of young men emerged from a nearby alley and made their way toward the towering statue of Saddam Hussein. Armed with hammers and pickaxes, they began striking its concrete pedestal in an attempt to bring it down.

Their efforts proved futile, however, as the base was too solid. Moments later, an American military crane rolled in and a US Marine draped the statue’s face with an American flag, then fastened a steel cable around its neck. With a single mechanical pull, the crane brought down a monument to Baathist rule, crashing it onto the asphalt. Only then did the “opposition” youth resume their role, hammering at Saddam’s severed likeness.

The moment, staged for cameras, quickly revealed its deeper symbolism. Observers on the ground and millions watching around the world realised that the Iraqi opposition, brought in to perform the ritual of regime collapse, lacked the strength to complete the task on its own.

It became apparent that Saddam’s true successor was not a homegrown political movement, but the US occupation. This was the same opposition that had convened in London prior to the invasion, where they had ostensibly agreed on a blueprint for post-Saddam governance.

The rest is history. The frailty of Iraq's exiled opposition was already clear in the early days of the war, as evidenced by the assassination of Abdul Majid al-Khoei in Najaf by supporters of local cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. From that moment, Iraq set off on a turbulent and deeply divisive path.

Read more: How the fall of Baghdad changed the world

Even in the anti-government Iranian diaspora, there appears to be a broad rejection of any future shaped by US or Israeli bombardment

This memory has relevance today amid speculation over the possible assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran that was birthed out of the 1979 Revolution. 

For its part, Israel has demonstrated that it has the wherewithal to carry out such an assassination, as evidenced by its string of assassinations of top Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists in the first hours of its offensive last Friday. Before that, it seamlessly killed top Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian military leaders across the region. And in most cases, the replacements to those murdered leaders were also swiftly taken out by Israel.

Broad rejection

But it remains unclear whether such a blatant attack on Iranian sovereignty will be tolerated by its people. Even in the anti-government Iranian diaspora, there appears to be a broad rejection of any future shaped by US or Israeli bombardment.

Any aspirations toward regime change may end up being wishful thinking without tangible contingency plans—such as organised opposition movements, credible political alternatives and leaders with executable programmes—to support such an outcome. Just ask the Americans and Iraqis who operated in the post-Saddam Iraq and witnessed the disastrous failure that Paul Bremer's 'day after' plan turned out to be.

Any aspirations toward regime change in Iran may end up being wishful thinking without tangible contingency plans

Predicting what comes next in Iran is a gamble best left to those willing to risk serious miscalculation. The situation could shift dramatically in a matter of hours if any actor decides to escalate.

The possible triggers are many: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, devastating civilian casualties, the destruction of the Fordow nuclear facility, the assassination of Khamenei, direct US military involvement, or the neutralisation of Iran's missile stockpiles. Any one of these could redraw the map of the region and redefine the balance of power—suddenly and irreversibly.

Since Saddam's 2003 ouster, Iran's expansion across the region—asserting control over decision-making in four Arab capitals, as its officials have boasted—has alarmed many Arab states, which have paid a high price resisting Tehran's imperial ambitions in the Middle East.

But the contours of an Israeli imperial project—now emerging in the West Bank, in Lebanon after the recent war, and in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime—are likely to provoke even deeper resentment and could derail Israeli models for "peace" in the region that it is trying to promote.

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