Iran’s delusions of regional power are being swept away

The regime—whether it survives or not—will not be able to operate going forward with the same capabilities and ideology

Iran’s delusions of regional power are being swept away

Israel’s war on Iran marks a landmark moment for the Middle East. It marks the end of the Iranian era, during which it exercised dominance over other countries in the region and their peoples. It also marks a clear end to the disastrous Obama Doctrine in the Middle East, which helped Iran grow its influence and authority in the region, despite the objections of the vast majority of the region's population, with the Syrian people suffering the most from this policy decision that empowered Tehran.

A mix of Western-Israeli complicity and wilful blindness to Tehran’s actions in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and even Palestine is to blame here. Since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, with the US war on terror, which saw the American invasion of Afghanistan and the toppling of Saddam's regime in Iraq, Iran has carefully been able to leverage the ensuing chaos to its advantage.

In Syria, Iran joined the Assad regime in perpetrating atrocities against the Syrian people, deploying militias that behaved much like Zionist gangs by destroying, burning, displacing, and killing. In Lebanon, Iran was given free rein, which helped it dominate the government there. To its credit, Iran was able to achieve what Israel failed to do: fragment states from within and weaken state institutions.

A remarkable turn of events

Fast forward to the events of today, and it is truly remarkable how Israel was able to penetrate Iran's intelligence and military apparatus. This shows its technological sophistication. In the span of a few hours, Israel successfully took out most of the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, proving to the world that Iran is nothing more than a paper tiger.

Regardless of whether it happened at the negotiating table or on the battlefield, the Iranian regime's obituary is already being written

But this doesn't come as a complete surprise. There have been signs of this, even as far back as 2020, when US President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani. And starting with the Israeli pager attack on Hezbollah in 2024, things rapidly unravelled for Iran's so-called 'Axis of Resistance'. Shortly thereafter, Israel assassinated Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, in a truly remarkable turn of events.

Hamas's politburo chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was next. Israel, although it officially denies its involvement, killed him while he was in Tehran attending the inauguration of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Then came the regime change in Syria, which deprived Iran of its only state ally, Bashar al-Assad. This effectively severed Iran's land bridge to Lebanon, where it smuggled arms across Iraq and Syria into Hezbollah's hands.

The Trump administration extended one opportunity to Iran to negotiate over its nuclear programme. The US president said Tehran could not only not have a nuclear weapon, but it wouldn't allow any nuclear enrichment whatsoever. The latter being a red line for Iran, it rejected the ultimatum and thus failed to seize its only chance to save itself. 

But regardless of whether it happened at the negotiating table or on the battlefield, the Iranian regime's obituary is already being written. Whether the current Israel-Iran war finishes quickly or drags on for some time, the outcome appears inevitable. The regime—whether it survives or not—will not be able to operate going forward with the same capabilities and ideology.

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