Politics

Exit signs: America’s full withdrawal from Syria seems imminent

A flurry of decisions suggests that the end is nigh for US troops in Syria, and that this may come sooner than expected. In laying the foundations for withdrawal, Donald Trump wants ‘out’ by Christmas

Delil Souleiman/AFP

Troops from the US-led coalition against Islamic State (IS) training SDF fighters in Syria's north-eastern Hasakah province on 7 September 2022.

Exit signs: America’s full withdrawal from Syria seems imminent

Caroline Rose

last update on 07 Jun 2025

This week, US officials confirmed that 500 American military personnel have been withdrawn from their posts in Syria, six months after the fall of the Assad regime.

The US soldiers had been there on a long-term mission to counter Islamic State terrorists in the country’s east, and critical facilities for the mission—such as the MSS Euphrates and the Mission Support Green Village—have either transferred to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or shuttered entirely.

Tom Barrack, the US Envoy for Syria, told a Turkish outlet that the US has “gone from eight bases to five, to three,” adding: “We’ll eventually go to one.” At the same time, Washington has told the Syrian Democratic Council to expedite its negotiations with Damascus to integrate SDF forces into the new Syrian Army by the end of August.

Damascus-SDF negotiations on security reform were set to last a year, following an agreement between the SDF’s Gen. Mazloum and President Al Sharaa in March, but with political gridlock and an absence of consensus, delays were expected.

The US likewise confirmed that it had given Damascus the green light to incorporate around 3,500 of foreign jihadist fighters into the 84th Syrian Army Division—a major U-turn, given Washington’s hesitancy about the role of foreign fighters in the new administration’s Ministry of Defense, evidenced by its inclusion on America’s list of conditions for sanctions relief.

Eyeing the door

The three decisions—to withdraw, to give the SDF a deadline, and to drop objections to foreign fighters’ involvement)—signal not only a new US approach but a new impatience with Syria’s slow governance-building process. This reflects a deeper imperative: smoothing the way for the pending full US departure from Syria and Iraq.

It comes after US President Donald Trump met Al Sharaa in Riyadh and agreed to end US sanctions on Syria, to give Damascus a chance to rebuild. To analysts, this pointed to Trump’s long-held objective of physically withdrawing US troops from the Middle East, with all signs pointing to a full-scale departure before the end of 2025.

We've gone from eight bases to five, to three. We'll eventually go to one

US Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, speaking to a Turkish outlet

For Trump and his team, withdrawing from the Middle East is not new, having ordered an abrupt withdrawal in north-east Syria during his first term, in October 2019. But he redeployed US units as Türkiye planned an offensive in Syria to target armed Kurdish groups, one of which (the SDF) has been America's primary partner in the region.

The idea that the US would abandon not only an important counter-terrorism mission but also its partners on the ground prompted Trump team members like Brett McGurk and then Secretary of Defense James Mattis to resign, forcing Trump to reverse the withdrawal decision retaining 400 troops in Syria.

Parallel process in Iraq

He was more successful in drawing down US forces in Iraq. After the successful US operation to kill senior Iranian commanders Qassem Soleimani and the pro-Iranian paramilitary leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad, Trump's team began quietly reducing US troops numbers in Iraq throughout the spring and summer of 2020.

SPA/Reuters — Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) meets US President Donald Trump (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (C) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

An Iranian airstrike on the Ain Al Assad Airbase that came uncomfortably close to killing hundreds of US personnel in the fallout from Soleimani's killing was a factor in the decision to withdraw, as was a January vote in the Iraqi parliament to formally cancel Iraq's request for assistance from the US which, until then, had justified its presence.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a helpful distraction, as the US transferred at least eight bases plus equipment to the Iraqi Security Forces in strategic locations like Camp Taji and Al-Qaim. From 5,200 US troops in Iraq, there were now 2,500. The Biden administration continued along the same path, reducing numbers further.

The US then formally changed its mission's mandate, from a combat role to a capacity-building focus, with a phased timeline for the full withdrawal of US troops, concluding in 2026, with US forces having first redeployed from Baghdad to the Erbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdish Region. A handful of US advisors will stay in Iraq at the invitation of Prime Minister Al Sudani's government.

Spanner in the works

The toppling of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime by anti-Assad fighters led by a sanctioned, jihadist group (Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS) led to hesitancy in Washington, given that it took place in December 2024, in the final weeks of Joe Biden's presidency. Suddenly, there were new concerns about instability and raised fears of an Islamic State resurgence in Syria's east.

That month, Biden redeployed more than 1,000 additional American forces to north-east Syria, bringing US force capacity there to 2,000 by the end of 2024, to support the region's security needs, support the SDF, and stave off any IS reconsolidation—something that the Iraqi government was also worried about. Al Sudani quietly asked the US to delay its full withdrawal from 2026 to 2029, but this fell on deaf ears.

In December 2024, Joe Biden redeployed more than 1,000 additional American forces to north-east Syria, bringing US force capacity there to 2,000

Washington's draw-down of American forces, its green light for Syrian Army reforms, its pressure on the SDF to expedite negotiations, and its sanctions relief all point to an about-turn on US policy in Syria. Trump's goals are now crystal clear: a complete departure from Syria and Iraq, and end to US involvement in the mission against IS.

Trump rings a date

Given the speed of the decisions, it looks likelier that the US will seek a withdrawal in Syria by the end of this year, and in Iraq by the end of next year. With only 500 or so forces and three bases left in Syria, and consolidation of remaining forces in Iraq, America's departure is gathering pace, not slowing down.

Delil Souleiman/AFP — Troops from the US-led coalition against Islamic State (IS) training SDF fighters in Syria's north-eastern Hasakah province on 7 September 2022.

Consensus between the SDF (which is the dominant force in the Autonomous Area of Northeast Syria, AANES) and Damascus on force integration is not only important; it is necessary for any US departure and transfer of the counter-IS mission. Yet tensions between the new administration and the AANES) create further space for malign actors (like IS) to disrupt Syria's political transition and unification.

Regional observers know that security reform in a 'new Syria' after 14 years of conflict and fragmentation is a marathon, not a sprint, but Trump may not. The transfer of the Counter-IS campaign in both Iraq and Syria must be handled with care. Rapid evacuation processes that disregard the potential for terrorist resurgence, partner force capacity gaps, or broader insecurity can cause more problems than they solve.

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