Why the Arab world must forge a collective vision of the future

While Arab countries remain vulnerable to multiple real and perceived security threats, they are, however, in a far more advantageous position, not only to effectively address such threats but to influence the future of the region.

Focusing on external threats does not mean overlooking domestic shortcomings. There are many challenges that should be addressed. But doing so requires a full understanding of how domestic, regional, and international dynamics are closely intertwined.

A much-changed Arab world

Today, Arab countries as a whole have balanced relationships with all the major powers, be it the US, China, Russia, or the European Union (EU). Some of them are members of influential international groupings, such as the G20 (Saudi Arabia) and BRICS (Egypt and the UAE).

The Arab world also holds an increasingly important position in the global economy. It accounts for 46% of crude oil production, 30% (and rising) of natural gas exports, 30% of international container trade, and 16% of air cargo trade.

It also has a notable advantage in the area of renewable energy and is therefore in an advantageous position to influence the transition to clean energy. The region's sovereign wealth funds command globally significant assets, while the weight of Arab countries in emerging markets indices is now at 7% and is expected to rise to 10% in the next few years.

What's more, a number of Arab nations, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, are involved in mediation efforts to resolve regional and international crises, underscoring their global influence. The time is therefore opportune for these countries to re-evaluate their collective position and chart a future that serves their individual and collective interests.

Collective approach needed

First, they need to realise that taking a piecemeal and fragmented approach to Arab security serves the interests of non-Arabs more than it serves genuine Arab national and collective security. Through their focus on narrow national interests, Arab leaders have opened the door for a level of foreign encroachment unseen since the end of colonialism. They need to understand that the national security of individual Arab countries is closely linked to collective Arab security.

Second, they must acknowledge that the nation-state model is under severe stress in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, and Lebanon. Preserving the Arab nation-state is essential not only to safeguard the interests of citizens but also to regional stability.

There are some who will argue that different Arab countries face different security threats; that collective Arab security is an illusion; that this is the time for Arab countries to look inwards and rebuild. Needless to say, individual Arab countries can secure their national interests by dealing directly with the major powers. This is particularly true for the US, with its transactional approach to international relations under the Trump administration.

However, forging a collective Arab position on issues of regional and international security, as well as economic matters, will have a multiplier effect on their relative influence on the international stage, including in Washington.

Auspicious time and place

The timing and location of the Arab Summit—the first to take place in Iraq for more than a decade—is particularly auspicious, and the fact that it is being held in Baghdad should not be overlooked. While the situation in Iraq remains precarious, due to decades of domestic turmoil and isolation from the rest of the Arab world, Baghdad's hosting of the summit sets aside any questions of Iraq's political orientation. Importantly, it confirms that Iraq can act as a bridge between the Arab world and Iran—an important relationship that needs to be carefully and skilfully managed to benefit both sides.

That the summit is taking place in the wake of Trump's visit to the region is particularly instructive. There is an important lesson to be derived from this visit, which should be fully considered as Arab nations—individually and collectively – draw up their future policies.

The influence of the three countries visited by Trump—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—on US policy should not be underestimated. The most obvious example has been their success in persuading Washington to overcome its deep reservations about the new Syrian regime. The fact that Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria and met its president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, speaks volumes.

Moreover, ahead of his visit, Trump paid scant attention to Israeli interests and secured the release of US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander, who had been serving in the Israeli army and held in Gaza since October 7 2023. He has also reached an agreement with the Houthis in Yemen and embarked on negotiations with Iran, both of which have marginalised Israeli concerns.

In short, Trump is willing to ignore the interests of his friends and allies to further short-term American interests—in this case, those of Israel. The challenge for Arab states, therefore, is how to align their objectives with those of the US. It is also imperative to learn from the experience of countries that have faced difficulties in their relations with the Trump administration. When unable to offer the US reciprocal benefits, it is best to stand your ground—not alone, but collectively.

The Arab Summit must therefore look beyond dealing with the present crises that cast their ever-lengthening shadow over the Middle East. It should provide a vision for peace and security in the region. This necessitates a collective vision for the future of the Middle East.

Forging a common vision

Arab countries must articulate a vision for a comprehensive and genuine peace. This involves not only managing their relations with Israel, Iran, and Türkiye but also with the world at large, particularly the US, China, and Russia. For them to influence regional and international systems of the future, not only must Arab countries address transnational challenges such as climate change, energy transition, sustainability, and connectivity; they must also tackle regional issues more consistently and effectively.

To begin with, there needs to be a determined effort to settle the conflicts that have plagued the Arab world for so long. The most urgent of these is the plight of the Palestinian people. That means furthering the goal of establishing a Palestinian state, and capitalising on international concern about the suffering of the Palestinians, particularly those in Gaza.

This requires securing a sustained ceasefire in Gaza, confronting Israeli encroachment in the West Bank, international recognition of Palestinian statehood, and intensifying pressure on Israel through institutions such as the United Nations, the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and other organisations dealing with international humanitarian and human rights law.

Read more: Unilateral recognition inches Palestinian statehood forward

The Saudi initiative to form a 'Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution', which culminated in a joint Saudi-French initiative to hold an international conference at the UN in June, must be fully utilised to further mobilise international support for a Palestinian state.

Addressing each regional conflict in isolation will not result in enduring peace and stability. This can only be achieved within a broader regional security architecture—one that Arab countries must begin to define and articulate. Such an architecture must be a comprehensive and inclusive regional security system, not one designed as a politico-military arrangement directed against any regional party. It also means there will be no Israeli integration in the region without concrete steps to create a viable Palestinian state.

Some argue that a common Arab vision for the future will be difficult to realise because the interests of Arab states do not necessarily converge. Some will go even further, suggesting such a vision is unrealistic. Yet, while interests do diverge in some instances, there is enough common ground to begin to articulate a shared idea of the future. Failure to build on that common ground will open the door for further foreign intervention in Arab affairs – and we have seen where that ends. A shared vision of the future will require frank and open dialogue—dialogue that can be initiated in Baghdad.

Given the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Arab security, together with the critical role played by the US in the region, such a dialogue can proceed in stages. First, with a core group directly involved in international efforts to resolve the conflict, who have a special relationship with the US, and then with a more expanded group.

Ultimately, it is important to remember that Arab nations should not rely on others to solve their problems. While it is true that none of these difficulties can be solved without dealing with foreign powers, history has proven that, without Arabs taking the initiative, outside powers are perfectly content to contain these conflicts until they blow up, as happened in Gaza.

Failure to seize on the opportunity provided by the Arab Summit to initiate a serious intra-Arab dialogue on how best to deal with individual and collective Arab security will come back to haunt every Arab country.