Istanbul meeting inches Ukraine ceasefire forward

The war did not end in a day, but after the shocking episode between Trump and his team and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February, which was registered as one of the most dramatic and obscure events in the history of international relations, a fresh start came into motion.

Trump made it clear that Ukraine could not become a member of NATO and put the brakes on arms supplies. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Putin in Moscow, a month after the US and Russian expert groups held a meeting in Riyadh in March to discuss improving bilateral relations and ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The US and Ukrainian ministers signed in April the Mineral Resources Agreement, establishing terms for joint investment in Ukraine's natural resources, including critical rare-earth elements, oil, and gas and enabling Trump to tell his electorate that the billions of dollars spent to fund the Ukrainian war effort over the years had paid off with concrete yields.

Last Saturday, at a meeting in Kyiv, the leaders of the so-called "European Five"—Ukraine, France, Britain, Germany and Poland—proposed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on 12 May, with Putin reciprocating with a ceasefire announcement and proposing direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul on 15 May.

Intense diplomatic signalling followed. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone with Putin and Zelenskyy, and French President Emmanuel Macron. Zelensky posted a message on his X account, saying that he would wait for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday, hoping that he would not look for excuses this time.

Trump also shared a message on X declaring "a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine", with the bloodbath hopefully coming to an end. "I will continue to work with both sides to make sure that it happens. A big week upcoming!" he declared.

These developments coincided with Trump's Middle East tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and an informal NATO foreign ministers' meeting hosted by Türkiye in Antalya. A meeting in Istanbul was confirmed, but the level of attendance turned into a mystery.

Putin a no-show

Erdogan announced Türkiye's readiness to host the leaders for peace talks, and at one point, many hoped that besides Putin and Zelenskyy, Trump could alter his Middle East tour schedule and join them in Istanbul. But Putin neither came himself nor sent his foreign minister, Lavrov, but one of his advisors, Vladimir Medinskiy.

On the Ukrainian side, President Zelenskyy, after a two hour and 40 minute meeting with President Erdogan in Ankara, shared with reporters his disappointment with the composition of the Russian delegation, but said that he would still send a delegation to Istanbul out of respect for Trump and Erdogan and as a clear expression of his commitment to peace.

Türkiye had launched a diplomatic initiative at the outset of the war in 2022, mediating between Russia and Ukraine in Antalya and Istanbul, and brokering the Black Sea grain corridor and prisoner exchange agreements. The two sides had come close to a deal then, but efforts had failed. Russians blamed the Ukrainians and their western allies for encouraging them to continue fighting.

Officials from the two countries have not met directly since then. Throughout the war, both sides have suffered heavy casualties. Ukraine continues to fight on and inflict heavy casualties on Russia, but Russia's greatest advantage throughout history—its ability to pour in endless numbers of troops—has become, once again, a major determinant.

Russians have gained the upper hand on the ground. International sanctions have failed to break Russia's economy, and the Russian war machine continues to spin effectively.

Under these circumstances, and in the face of the Trump administration's approach, Ukraine is now willing to conclude a peace agreement, but agreeing on its terms is difficult. However, Russia has no intention of returning to Ukraine the Crimean Peninsula it occupied in 2014 and Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, occupied in 2022.

Russia has annexed these territories and continues to insist that Ukraine should never become a member of NATO, that NATO should never settle near Russian territory, and that anti-Russian structures in Ukraine should be dismissed.

Ukraine, on the other hand, may have realised that it will not be possible to get most of its lost territories back, but it is not willing to cede them to Moscow on Russia's terms.

Zelenskyy also realises that Ukraine's NATO membership is a very distant possibility, but he insists on "security guarantees". He also wants to integrate with the West in some way, such as EU membership, if not NATO membership.

In other news...

Meanwhile, in Riyadh, the first leg of his Middle East trip, Trump announced that he had decided to lift sanctions against Syria, and the following day, he met with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

On 15 May, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Ankara. Rubio described the meeting as "cordial and constructive", as also confirmed by Turkish officials.

During his Gulf tour, Trump made deals worth billions of dollars in arms sales, trade agreements and future investment agreements in the United States. Another major development is that Netanyahu has started to test Trump's patience. But even so, he continues to defend Israel's interests.

Trump's gestures to Syria were conditional on Israel's security. Improving relations with Israel and enlarging the Abraham Accords are also said to be important to his talks with Syria and the Gulf states.

Other than the Gulf leaders and interim president al-Sharaa, the other star of the day has been President Erdoğan. Türkiye-US relations, which went cold under President Biden, are warming up under President Trump, who has called Erdogan an important leader and friend and engages with him on a number of issues, including those in Syria and Ukraine.

At a time when Erdogan and his government have come under pressure at home and abroad, for allegations of moving away from democracy and towards autocracy, Trump's friendship and the opportunities which paved the way to build an image as a peace broker have served as a saviour for Erdogan.