Trump's 'big' agenda in Saudi Arabia

A high-powered delegation will accompany him on his first official foreign trip of his second term as US president, reflecting a diverse agenda, spanning trade, defence and geopolitics

Al Majalla

Trump's 'big' agenda in Saudi Arabia

Maher Chmaytelli

last update on 11 May 2025

US President Donald Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia on 13 May, marking a significant moment in the historic partnership between the two countries. He will meet with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on his first official foreign trip during his second term.

The president is expected to seek significant economic deals and to sound out one of the United States’ major allies for ways to navigate geopolitical tension with Iran and China. A Saudi pledge to invest $600bn into the US economy over the next four years has already been made, while the president has said he will seek to boost the total to $1tn.

Naji Abi Aad, an energy expert and former consultant at the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), based in Vienna, outlined what both sides were looking for: “Trump wants affordable oil and massive investments in the US economy, including defence contracts. And Saudi Arabia wants access to US civilian and military technology, artificial intelligence and nuclear power generation capability, as part of its plan to diversify its economy away from oil.”

High-powered delegation

A high-powered US delegation is expected to be in the Kingdom to attend a Saudi-US Investment Forum. According to reports carried by the Bloomberg financial news service, the lineup features some of the biggest names from Wall Street. It includes Larry Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock and Jane Fraser, his counterpart at Citigroup, alongside Jenny Johnson, the chief executive of Franklin Templeton Investments. There are also top executives from the technology sector.

Ruth Porat, the president and chief investment officer of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is on the list. So is Arvind Krishna, the chief executive of computing giant IBM. They will be joined by Cristiano Amon, who leads Qualcomm, the semiconductor multinational.

Washington’s effort to attract such significant inward investment comes as it seeks to re-industrialise its economy. The fundraising is part of a broader regional strategy. Trump will head off to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on a tour of Gulf nations, with combined assets exceeding $ 2.5tn.

Saudi Royal Palace / AFP — US President Donald Trump (L) and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud shaking hands during a signing ceremony at the Saudi Royal Court in Riyadh on May 20, 2017.

Defence and energy cooperation

But besides investments and tech deals, another major area of interest will be defence. “The expectation is that arms sales will be a big piece of the trip,’’ said Bill Farren-Price, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Ahead of the visit, the US State Department confirmed approval for selling weapons worth an estimated $3.5bn to Saudi Arabia, describing the Kingdom as “a partner country that contributes to political stability and economic progress in the Gulf Region.”

And Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, said in April during a visit to Riyadh that the two countries will sign a preliminary agreement to cooperate over the Kingdom’s ambitions to develop a civil nuclear industry.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms aim to reduce carbon emissions by increasing its use of renewable energy and moving toward nuclear power generation as the economy reduces its dependence on oil revenue. Nonetheless, the current policy in Washington on fossil fuels is more aligned with the traditional Saudi economic strengths. And that sets the stage for a fresh partnership between the countries.

Trump reversed the regulations adopted by the previous administration, which were designed to curtail the use of fossil fuels to curb carbon emissions responsible for climate change. Instead, the new White House favours what it calls “energy dominance” and the need to create jobs. It eased restrictions on oil and gas drilling, in effect, an approach more favourable to the continued use of fossil fuels.

That is seen as a long-term win for Saudi Arabia and its partners in the OPEC+ bloc of oil-exporting nations, even amid downward pressure on crude prices in the immediate term. OPEC+ agreed to increase supply in May and June, effectively keeping oil prices in check around their lowest level in four years. And the pledge comes as global energy demand growth is expected to slow due to the trade flow disruptions caused by Trump’s use of tariffs on imports of goods into the world’s biggest economy.

A diversification strategy balancing ties with the US and China has helped Gulf states achieve their goals and bolster their economic and geopolitical standing

Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House

A low oil price is a key to taming inflation in the US, keeping fuel prices down and helping give its independent central bank, the Federal Reserve, more room to lower interest rates, which should, in turn, boost economic growth.

Such a contribution from affordable fuel in the country is even more important as Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will push prices higher.

Goldman Sachs, a major Wall Street bank, cut its oil price forecast after the OPEC+ decision. It now expects the global benchmark for crude, Brent, to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56in 2026, down by $2 from its previous estimates.

Lower prices limit the income of oil-exporting nations, including Saudi Arabia. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Kingdom needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget as its ambitious reform plans continue. In the first quarter of 2025, Saudi Arabia posted a fiscal deficit of 58.7bn riyals ($15.7bn), the highest since late 2021 and already well over half the government's expected gap for 2025 of 101bn riyals.

According to an analysis carried out by Bloomberg, for Riyadh, "keeping Trump onside is crucial". The news service's analysts, Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary, added: "Especially now, as it pushes back on key issues, like refusing to back air strikes on Iran for fear of getting dragged into a war it can't control."

And they implied that any strategy to stay in step with Washington is working: "Politically, Saudi Arabia is riding high in Trump's world."

REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir — Vehicles drive near damaged buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, Lebanon November 27, 2024.

Regional geopolitics

Iran is no longer the threat it was a year ago, when it could count on powerful proxies to project geopolitical power. From Hamas to Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria, these allies have been weakened by a string of defeats.

In terms of wider regional diplomacy, the prospect of progress on a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians looks unlikely, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu staunchly opposes a two-state solution.

In turn, that undermines the prospect for enlargement of the Abraham Accords, which were brokered by the first Trump administration and normalised relations between Israel and three Arab countries, Morocco, Bahrain and the UAE.

Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute said: "The desire to pull off a successor to the Abraham Accords has gone quiet, simply because the Israeli approach to a two-state solution makes that impossible."

"Trump seems to have lost interest in the whole Gaza situation, a bit like Ukraine; there are no easy wins. So, I think the discussions will be more about Iran and what can be done to rein in the nuclear programme."

But having said that, on Tuesday, Trump teased during a press conference with Canada's new prime minister, Mark Carney, in the Oval Office, "We're going to have a very, very big announcement to make" ahead of his visit to the region. "Like, as big as it gets, and I won't tell you on what, but it's very positive."

"It'll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in years about a certain subject," he added.

Vindicated strategy

According to Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House global affairs think tank in London, Trump's visit "vindicates" the strategy behind broader strategic considerations in the region: "Gulf countries have embraced a strategy of diversification of diplomatic and economic relations, maintaining closeness to Washington but also fostering closer engagement with Beijing."

"This balancing has supported Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE in their efforts to achieve the goals of their respective national visions while bolstering their global political and economic standing."

She concluded that "Gulf countries look well placed to act as a bridge" to resolve the ongoing trade war between the world's number one and two economic powers.

Riyadh has played such a role in another crisis with global ramifications: Russia's war in Ukraine. It positioned itself as a neutral mediator in the conflict. The Kingdom has maintained ties with both Russia through OPEC+ and with Ukraine, providing humanitarian aid and hosting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It led to a major diplomatic achievement in February when Saudi Arabia hosted the first direct talks between the US and Russia since the 2022 war in Ukraine, followed by US and Ukrainian officials in March.

Al Khatib pointed out that Trump's visit is another important moment: "Signals a mutually beneficial strengthening of US-Gulf ties and is likely to result in tangible political and economic outcomes reinforcing the rising global status of Gulf countries."

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