India-Pakistan escalation raises fears of nuclear conflagration

Pakistan decried India's 'largest aerial assault on Pakistan in 50 years' as an “act of war" and says it downed five Indian fighter jets as the world looks on with bated breath

India-Pakistan escalation raises fears of nuclear conflagration

When two nuclear-armed powers square up to each other as India and Pakistan have done over the disputed territory of Kashmir, the rest of the world has good reason to fear that the conflict could ultimately result in a nuclear conflagration.

One of the key concerns that has underpinned the concerns of world leaders during the three-year Ukraine conflict is that it could escalate into a full-blown nuclear war between Russia, which possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, and the NATO alliance.

Similarly, the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran over the ayatollahs’ controversial nuclear programme have raised concerns that it could ultimately result in a nuclear conflict, not least because the Israelis have developed a formidable nuclear arsenal of their own. And even though Iran continues to deny it has any intention of developing nuclear weapons, the latest assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded that the Iranians have developed sufficient quantities of nuclear weapons to produce at least six nuclear warheads.

The eruption of hostilities between India and Pakistan is therefore the latest example of a conflict between two nuclear-armed nations, raising the spectre of a full-blown nuclear conflict taking place unless intense efforts are undertaken to defuse tensions between the two countries.

Growing nuclear arsenal

While neither India nor Pakistan has made public the true extent of their nuclear arsenals, India is believed to have a slightly larger stockpile of nuclear weapons, with approximately 172 warheads, compared with Pakistan, which is said to have around 170.

Furthermore, both countries—far from being prepared to scale down their nuclear stockpiles—have declared their commitment to expand their nuclear capabilities, with India developing its ability to launch nuclear warheads from land, air and sea, and Pakistan focusing on the development of smaller tactical missiles.

Unless efforts are undertaken to defuse tensions between India and Pakistan, the spectre of a nuclear exchange looms

In such circumstances, it is hardly surprising that the outbreak of hostilities between these rival powers should immediately raise concerns that, without urgent diplomatic intervention by the outside world, the fighting might ultimately result in nuclear catastrophe.

This is certainly the view being expressed by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who voiced his concern about Indian attacks in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and called for maximum military restraint from both nuclear-armed Asian neighbours.

Following the 22 April attack on Indian-controlled Kashmir by Islamist militants, which killed 26 people, Guterres denounced the killings as an "awful terror attack" and warned that tensions between India and Pakistan were "at their highest in years". 

Call for restraint

Following the latest upsurge in tensions after Indian warplanes attacked a number of targets in Pakistani-controlled territory, Guterres called for both countries to show restraint across the Line of Control, which separates Indian and Pakistani forces in the disputed Kashmir region.

"The Secretary-General is very concerned about the Indian military operations across the Line of Control and the international border. He calls for maximum military restraint from both countries," the UN chief's spokesperson said.

"The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan."

Guterres has previously spoken with both Pakistan's Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif and India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar following the 22 April attack, and has offered to support de-escalation efforts.

But international efforts to calm tensions have so far failed to achieve the desired result, with India launching air strikes against bases in Pakistan-controlled territory it claims were used by Islamist militants to launch the attacks in Kashmir.

International efforts to calm tensions have so far failed, as evidenced by India's strikes and Pakistan's threat to respond

The air strikes follow Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vow to punish "terrorists and their backers" in the wake of the Kashmir attacks. India said the air strikes, codenamed "Operation Sindoor", had targeted nine locations designated as "terrorist infrastructure" in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Pakistan denounced the attacks as an "act of war," and said the strikes had killed 26 people and injured 46 others. Among the dead were six people killed at two mosques and two teenagers who were killed elsewhere, Pakistani officials said.

India said the strikes hit only "terror camps" and no civilian or military targets. It said it had exercised "considerable restraint" in its target selection.

"Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature," the Indian defence ministry said in a statement.

Several buildings were on fire after the strikes, which caused power outages in various locations. For its part, Pakistan claimed it had shot down five Indian Air Force jets and a drone, although the Indian authorities have yet to confirm the losses, which are said to include three French-made Rafale fighters.

With Pakistan threatening to respond militarily to the attacks, there are now concerns that India and Pakistan, which have already fought three wars over the disputed territory of Kashmir, could once again find themselves involved in yet another conflict, one that has all the potential to escalate into a nuclear confrontation.

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