The disbanding of Ahmad Al-Awda’s Eighth Brigade on 13 marks a major shift in Syria’s security landscape. It got rid of President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s most prominent rival in the south and paved the way for Damascus to tighten its grip on Daraa.
Some observers have linked the brigade’s dissolution to al-Shara’a’s recent visit to the UAE—a country known for its ties to Al-Awda. But while regional alignment may have greased the wheels, it was likely al-Sharaa's on-the-ground strategy that proved decisive.
He seemed to have been following a familiar playbook: building rival power centres, systematically isolating and weakening the brigade, then applying pressure at the right moment, combining the threat of force with community-led pressure. These efforts culminated in a negotiated deal that led to the brigade’s near bloodless dismantling—an approach similarly used to eliminate Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's rivals in northwest Syria.
Al-Sharaa used to lead HTS, the Islamist rebel movement that fought the Assad regime for years, before it led a lightning offensive in December 2024, which resulted in its toppling. Now, his government is packed with HTS members.
Useful template
The success of the 8th Brigade's dismantling suggests this model could be replicated elsewhere in the country to get other armed factions to disband. While many are nominally operating under the defence ministry, the government is looking to fully bring them under the state's control.
Like other factions that agreed to merge under the Ministry of Defence, the Eighth Brigade retained considerable autonomy in southern Syria. But unlike others, Al-Awda consistently resisted allowing non-local, Damascus-affiliated forces into his stronghold of Busra al-Sham.