Black Sea truce inches efforts to end the Ukraine war forward

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal envoy to the Middle East, says US officials are “bridging the gap between the two sides" and was upbeat that a comprehensive deal could be reached by 20 April

Al Majalla

Black Sea truce inches efforts to end the Ukraine war forward

The immense challenge of negotiating a lasting ceasefire for the Ukraine conflict has been clearly evident during the latest round of talks in Riyadh, where negotiators have struggled to reach a lasting peace agreement.

Having begun his second term in the White House promising to resolve the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, the grim realities of the Ukraine conflict have now forced US President Donald Trump to set a new timeframe of implementing a ceasefire in time for the Easter holiday.

Prior to the new round of talks commencing in Riyadh on Monday, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal envoy to the Middle East, was upbeat about securing a deal by Easter Sunday, which falls this year on 20 April. He told Fox News that US officials were “bridging the gap between the two sides” and that Trump “expects there to be some sort of a deal in the coming weeks.”

By contrast, the Kremlin played down expectations, suggesting the summit in Riyadh was “just beginning” and that “difficult negotiations” lay ahead. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country’s delegation would approach the talks in “a completely constructive manner” and that they would be demanding that Russia end its attacks on key Ukrainian infrastructure.

Despite the Trump administration succeeding in persuading Ukraine to accept a 30-day ceasefire in its war with Ukraine, Russia has maintained its attacks on Ukraine, recently targeting the country’s railways and a children’s hospital.

Struggle for common ground

With American, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators struggling to find areas of common agreement during their latest round of talks in the Saudi capital this week, the realities of finding a lasting resolution to the conflict have been made clear to all.

AFP
US, Russian and Saudi officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian FM Sergei Lavrov, meet at Riyadh's Diriyah Palace on February 18, 2025.

The second round of formal talks between US and Russian negotiators was convened in Saudi Arabia following a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin last week.

But the difficulties involved in negotiating a deal were clearly evident when the planned release of a joint US-Russia statement on the negotiations was delayed after both the Russian and US delegations said they first needed to analyse the outcome of the talks with their respective teams.

At the heart of the negotiations was a proposal to reach a deal between Russia and Ukraine covering navigation in the Black Sea, as well as a range of other issues. The talks have so far involved Russia and the US, with the American delegation providing the Ukrainian delegation a constant update on developments.

So when the broad details of the outline agreement that was finally reached at the Saudi talks were finally released, no mention was made of the rest of the conflict, especially the fierce fighting taking place in eastern Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine have only agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea while implementing a pause on attacks against energy infrastructure.

In two separate statements, the White House said that each country accepted “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”. After the negotiations, the US also agreed to help reopen Russian commercial shipping lanes to the world.

For its part, the Kremlin played down expectations, saying the summit in Riyadh was "just beginning" and that "difficult negotiations" lay ahead

Emerging doubts

Even so, doubts soon emerged about how quickly the agreement would come into force, with the Kremlin insisting that it would only agree to the terms after the "lifting of sanctions restrictions" on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other "financial institutions involved in international trade of food".

The Kremlin's statement directly contradicted Zelenskyy's claim that the ceasefire agreements would come into effect "immediately". The Ukrainian leader warned Moscow that he would seek extra weapons from the US administration if the agreements were violated.

The fact that both Moscow and Washington delayed announcing the details of the deal suggests that neither side is particularly satisfied with the outcome of the talks, as it means that, while hostilities in Crimea might be frozen, fighting it likely to continue in other parts of the Ukraine conflict, especially in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces have recently been achieving modest advances.

A report recently compiled for the US director of national intelligence on the current state of the conflict found that Russia's recent battlefield momentum provided it with room for "strategic patience" so far as the ceasefire talks were concerned, while any demand for Ukraine to concede territory or neutrality to Russia "without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity".

So, while the Saudi talks may represent an important first step towards establishing a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine, much work still needs to be done before both sides can agree on a permanent peace.

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