Politics

İmamoğlu’s arrest is a big deal in Türkiye, less so for its allies

The popular mayor of Istanbul, who has repeatedly beaten President Erdoğan’s party in elections, was just days from being confirmed as the 2028 presidential candidate when he was detained. What now?

OZAN KOSE / AFP

Protestors hold red smoke flares during a rally in support of Istanbul's arrested mayor at Istanbul's city hall, on March 24, 2025.

İmamoğlu’s arrest is a big deal in Türkiye, less so for its allies

Omer Onhon

last update on 25 Mar 2025

The political crisis that Türkiye has been facing goes well beyond the arrest of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political rival, Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. The issue now is Türkiye’s political future.

Detained on 19 March, İmamoğlu was charged with corruption on 23 March—just as he was to be nominated as his party’s presidential candidate for the next election in 2028. He was arrested along with the mayor of Istanbul’s Beylikdüzü district—a member of the same party—and 43 others. The court also ordered the detention of three others, among them the mayor of Istanbul’s Şişli district, in a separate investigation.

İmamoğlu is currently in Silivri Prison, 70km from İstanbul. Other charges related to terrorist assistance were dropped, to the chagrin of the chief public prosecutor, who has appealed. The Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office described İmamoğlu as “the leader of a crime group”.

Army chiefs, politicians, journalists, and 2013 Gezi protest organisers have all served time in Silivri on charges such as seeking to overthrow the government and sponsoring terrorism. Some remain there.

Among the prison’s most well-known residents are Osman Kavala, a businessman accused of being the main organiser of the Gezi Park protests; Selahattin Demirtaş, former co-chair of HDP, the predecessor of the pro-Kurdish DEM party; and Ümit Özdağ, head of the nationalist Zafer Party.

Since İmamoğlu was detained, hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters (from his CHP party and others) have been protesting, including at Saraçhane Square in Istanbul, to protest against the government and the courts and to show solidarity.

REUTERS/Umit Bektas — Police officers use pepper spray on a demonstrator wearing dervish clothes during a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 23, 2025.

Students take the lead

University students are leading the demonstrations organised in almost every city in Türkiye. A generation known for its relaxed lifestyle has shown itself to be determined and resilient, as police fired tear gas and water cannon at the protesters, making dozens of arrests in Izmir, Ankara, and Istanbul.

There were minor injuries but no reports of serious injuries and loss of life. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya stated that over several days, 123 police officers had been injured and 1,418 people detained, among them journalists.

The court will now issue the indictment, and Imamoğlu and the other detainees will appear in the dock, but there is no set time frame for this. The judiciary in Türkiye is not known for its speed. Detainees can remain in prison for months or even years before a verdict is reached. Ümit Özdağ is still awaiting the indictment two months later.

The replacements of İmamoğlu and the Mayor of Beylikdüzü district will be elected this week from the municipal councils. Since the CHP has the majority there, the mayor will continue to be someone from the party.

It is a different case for the mayor of Şişli because he has been accused of crimes related to terrorism, and he has been replaced by a trustee (a government civil servant). Many believe that, had it not been for the protests, trustees could have replaced all of them. The opposition has called these developments yet another clear case of judicial discrimination in favour of supporters of the ruling AKP.

They point out the swiftness with which the judiciary takes swift action against municipalities and individuals from the opposition (often based on secret witness testimony) but does nothing about the widespread allegations against AKP officials, both past and present.

President Erdoğan’s supporters accuse the CHP of trying to stir up trouble for the leader who has been in power for 22 years—calling the millions of protesters “vandals”. The opposition accused him of seeking to capitalise on the tension.

İmamoğlu's arrest isn't expected to feature heavily in talks between Türkiye's foreign minister and US officials this week

Contingency plans

Imamoğlu's lawyers will appeal against the court decision, as well as the decision to cancel his university diploma, as the CHP set up polling stations in major cities all around Türkiye, in venues such as municipal halls and restaurants, to gauge public opinion as to Imamoğlu's 2028 presidential candidate nomination.

CHP leader Özgür Özel later announced that around 15 million people had cast their ballots in support of İmamoğlu's candidacy. This rate of support can be interpreted as reflecting the expectation of a significant part of the Turkish people for early elections.

According to the constitution, President Erdoğan cannot run for another term, but the AKP is determined to change this, and there are several ways to do it.

If 360 deputies out of a total of 600 vote to amend the relevant article of the constitution, it would then go to a referendum and enter into force if a majority vote to enact it. If 400 deputies vote for the amendment, it is approved without the need for a referendum. AKP (272) and its ally MHP (47) have a total of 319 deputies.

Another way is to dissolve the parliament before the elections, in which case the president can run once again since he is deemed not to have had the chance to complete his second term.

It is currently unclear whether there will be early elections and, if so, whether Ekrem İmamoğlu could run, but the opposition is not without alternatives. Özel said contingency plans were in place.

As a country seeking an economic turnaround, mass street protests and major questions about democratic and judicial processes are unwelcome. Türkiye's Economy Minister Mehmet Şimşek, who took office in 2023, has achieved some progress, with inflation down but still high, at around 39% (as per official data). Foreign exchange reserves have increased, and Türkiye's credit rating has improved.

KEMAL ASLAN / AFP — Supporters of Istanbul metropolitan mayor Ekrem Imamoglu hold a poster of him as they demonstrate outside Istanbul town hall against his detention over a corruption probe in Istanbul on March 19, 2025.

The last few days of unrest had a negative impact. Mahfi Eğilmez, one of Türkiye's leading economists, said the market value of companies on the country's stock exchange had fallen, with foreign outflows from the market and Türkiye's risk premium (CDS premium) having risen from 250 to 328 basis points.

Eğilmez said the Central Bank sold foreign currency in order to prevent the exchange rate from skyrocketing, explaining why foreign exchange reserves fell by about $25bn and why the banking sector lost about 25% of its value. Rumours that Şimşek could resign have as yet proven to be unfounded.

International reaction

There has been some international reaction to the arrest of Erdoğan's main rival days before his announcement as his party's presidential candidate. Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament's Rapporteur for Türkiye, said it was "full speed towards a complete authoritarian state". Others have toned down the language.

The EU is more concerned about having Türkiye support its efforts to improve its defence industry and security environment. The United States has also chosen not to upset Erdoğan. The US State Department said it did not comment on the internal decision-making processes of other countries but that it was important to protect fundamental freedoms and human rights, including the right to a fair and impartial trial.

Around the time of Imamoglu's detention, US President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said his boss had had a "great conversation" with Erdogan and that there would be positive developments in their relations in the coming days.

For his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan travels to Washington this week to discuss issues of mutual interest with his counterpart. İmamoğlu's arrest and the surrounding crisis are not expected to feature heavily in their talks.

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