The Riyadh negotiations between Washington and Moscow last month ushered in a new phase in US-Russia relations, increasing the prospects not only of ending the war in Ukraine, but of cooperating on other issues, too.
It will become clear in time, but the talks could have fired the starting gun on the biggest change in dynamics of the post-war world, changes that will break the alliances and assumptions that guided the last 80 years, reshape the future security order in Europe, and inform the structure of a new world order.
Three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, there is growing belief that 2025 will be the year it comes to an end through negotiations, determining the fate of south-eastern Ukraine, most of which is currently occupied. Most suspect that it will also cement Kyiv’s pro-European political, military, and economic alignment.
US President Donald Trump is known to want the war to end, but this is not the only factor motivating a ceasefire. Across much of the frontline, both sides have reached a stalemate and neither currently seems likely to reach a decisive victory (although Russia’s resources are far deeper than Ukraine’s).
Three years of war
On both sides, war has taken its toll economically and in lives lost. Since the invasion, both sides have taken and lost territory, and both have had moments of momentum and of slowing, advance, and retreat. Like many wars, it has ebbed and flowed, with changing dynamics, tactics, and strategies.
Invading from the south, east, and north on 24 February 2022, Russian forces tried to take the whole country swiftly. Capturing vast swathes, including the strategic southern city of Kherson, they soon reached the outskirts of Kyiv. But logistical shortcomings—from communication failures and disrupted supply lines to fuel shortages—combined with the resilience of Ukraine’s forces and leadership (buoyed by Western support) forced Moscow to reassess its aims.
In April 2022, Russian forces abandoned the fight to Kyiv and shifted their focus to the south and east to establish a land corridor linking Russian-held areas in the east with the Russian-held peninsula of Crimea. This meant capturing strategic cities, most notably Mariupol, effectively turning the Sea of Azov into a fully Russian-controlled body of water.
Later that year, Ukrainian forces launched a dramatic counter-offensive, reclaiming Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north-east using Western weapons. But a much-touted counter-offensive in the summer 2023 was delayed, then failed to gain ground, as the war became a grinding battle of attrition. Ever since, the frontline has changed very little.
One of the most notable developments was Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. While this caught the eye, it ultimately backfired, as Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses on the central and southern Donbas frontlines, particularly in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The Ukrainians had assumed that Russian troops would redeploy to Kursk, but this did not transpire.
