Is a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine even feasible?

Funds freed up

The deepening tensions with the Trump administration have already prompted European Union leaders to commit to working more closely together to bolster the continent's defence requirements and to free up hundreds of billions of euros for security.

Following emergency talks in Brussels earlier this month, leaders of the 27-state bloc agreed to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to upgrade the continent's defence needs, a move that could ultimately enable them to act independently of the US.

The significance of this development was underlined by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who, speaking after the summit ended, declared: "Today history is being written." She said the 27 EU leaders were "determined to ensure Europe's security and to act with the scale, the speed and the resolve that this situation demands. We are determined to invest more, to invest better and to invest faster together."

The desire to pursue their own policy initiatives has now prompted several European leaders to go even further in their attempts to establish a distinctive, Euro-centric approach to defence issues by proposing the establishment of a European peacekeeping force to safeguard Ukraine's security in the event of Trump succeeding his quest to negotiate a peace settlement with Moscow.

In what British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has dubbed a "coalition of the willing", negotiations are underway to create a multi-national force to be based in Ukraine once a peace deal has been agreed. The aim of the force would be to provide reassurance to Ukraine that it would not be subject to any further acts of aggression by Russia once the current round of hostilities has ended.

Speaking at a summit of European leaders in London to discuss the Ukraine crisis, Starmer warned that the time had come for Europe to "do the heavy lifting" rather than constantly relying on the US. To this end, he proposed establishing a coalition force to protect any peace deal negotiated with Russia and to guarantee Ukraine's security.

"We have to learn from the mistakes of the past; we cannot accept a weak deal which Russia can breach with ease. Instead, any deal must be backed by strength," he said.

Starmer's plan has received strong backing from French President Emmanuel Macron, with senior military officers from across Europe and beyond meeting in the UK to discuss plans for the creation of an international peacekeeping force for Ukraine, with Starmer claiming that the proposal is now moving into an "operational phase."

Mounting concerns

But while discussions continue as to the precise nature and scale of the proposed peacekeeping force, concerns have already begun to mount about the viability of such an operation given both the weakness of Europe's military forces, which have suffered decades of underinvestment and Moscow's opposition to the notion of European troops being based so close to its own borders.

One of the justifications given by Putin for invading Ukraine was Moscow's concern about the West's continuing encroachment into territory in eastern Europe, a move that the Kremlin argues threatens Russia's own security.

This has prompted Sergei Lavrov, Russia's veteran foreign minister, to warn that Russia will "categorically" oppose any peace deal that allows European troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine.

There are also concerns that, without US backing, such a force would be vulnerable to attack by Russia, as the Europeans do not have the air power and intelligence capabilities to adequately defend themselves.

This has led some European leaders, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to warn that sending a force of European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine could be "risky, complex and ineffective" if it were to be deployed without adequate protection.

Certainly, after decades of under-investment in defence, it remains to be seen whether Europeans have the ability and resources to create a force with the strength and resilience necessary to meet the challenge of undertaking a hazardous peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.