Germany approves the biggest fiscal expansion in its post-war history

The country decides defence and infrastructure are worth borrowing for

Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner at the Bundesrat in Berlin on March 21, 2025. If, after the Bundestag, the Bundesrat also approves it, the way will be clear for the unprecedented borrowing for defence and infrastructure.
John MACDOUGALL / AFP
Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner at the Bundesrat in Berlin on March 21, 2025. If, after the Bundestag, the Bundesrat also approves it, the way will be clear for the unprecedented borrowing for defence and infrastructure.

Germany approves the biggest fiscal expansion in its post-war history

When a German party triggers a Zählappell, or parliamentary roll call, it is serious business. As a television commentator recently joked, “They will haul MPs out of bed—usually their own.”

On 21 March, the Bundesrat, parliament's upper house, approved a fiscal package previously approved on 18 March by an emergency session of the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament where the Christian Democrats (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens scheduled a Zählappell voted in favour of the biggest fiscal expansion in Germany’s post-war history meant to upgrade its creaking infrastructure and rearm its military to face the Russian threat.

After hours of debate, 512 MPs—well over the two-thirds majority needed to alter Germany’s constitution—voted for the reforms proposed by Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and the expected next chancellor. Mr Merz wants defence spending over 1% of GDP to be exempted from the debt brake, a deficit limit enshrined in the constitution.

He also wants to create a €500bn ($545bn) debt-financed off-budget fund for investments in infrastructure over the next 12 years. And he proposes to end the requirement that Germany’s 16 federal states must balance their budgets and allow each state to take on debt of up to 0.35% of its GDP.

Will it be spent well? One danger is that the probable incoming government of CDU/CSU and SPD, nicknamed Kleiko (small coalition), might fritter away extra deficit-spending headroom on tax cuts.

Another is that the infrastructure fund could be misused for spending previously covered by the regular budget, not new investments. The Greens have partly contained that danger, says Jens Südekum of Düsseldorf University, by insisting the off-budget fund must be used only for infrastructure spending beyond last year’s level.

Germany needs to invest €600bn in the next ten years to become competitive

German Economic Institute study

Germany urgently needs infrastructure investment. "Crumbling roads, railways and bridges, inadequate educational infrastructure, outdated buildings, lack of infrastructure for electricity, hydrogen and heat," was the devastating verdict of a study last year by the German Economic Institute (IW). It calculated that Germany needs to invest €600bn in the next ten years to become competitive.

Both Michael Hüther, the boss of iw, and Mr Südekum agree that the danger of misuse of funds is greater with new defence spending than with the infrastructure fund. The debt-brake exemption threshold of 1% of GDP corresponds to about €44bn in 2025. The draft defence budget for 2025 is €53bn.

The new rule means at least €9bn of the planned expenditure can be financed with debt and potentially diverted to "nonsense", says Clemens Fuest, an economist who heads the IFO institute. Mr Fuest would have preferred to raise the threshold to 2% of GDP.

Another challenge is how to use rearmament funds wisely. "Germany has the opportunity to get the most advanced military kit," says Moritz Schularick, head of the Kiel Institute, a research outfit. The country needs more armoured brigades, which require over 90 tanks each at €25m a pop. But investments, he argues in a recent paper, should focus on cybersecurity and AI-guided drones, which offer greater capability at lower cost than many traditional anti-tank missiles.

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