German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s term in office looks set to end after his government lost a historic vote of confidence in the German parliament, setting the stage for early national elections following the collapse of his coalition.
Perversely, Scholz had called the vote in order to lose it.
He wanted the Bundestag—the lower house of parliament - to declare its lack of confidence in him so that the first formal step could be made towards triggering new elections. The calculation was that a fresh national vote offered the best chance of reviving his party's political fortunes.
Given Germany's stalled economy and the global crises facing the West, struggling until the scheduled election date in September 2025 risked being seen as irresponsible by the electorate.
And given the deep unpopularity of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SDP), the dominant group within the German coalition, few in Germany believe he can now achieve the result needed to remain in power.
The first indication that Scholz’s government was on the brink came in November over a budget dispute. But his coalition had been unsteady for months. He had been reliant on support from the opposition conservatives to pass any new laws, effectively making his administration a lame-duck government.
His was a minority government after an unpopular and notoriously rancorous three-party coalition collapsed when Scholz dismissed his finance minister in a dispute over how to revitalise Germany’s stagnant economy.
Losing the Bundestag vote meant Scholz was obliged to ask the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve parliament and to formally call new elections, which must take place within 60 days. They have been scheduled for 23 February.
With the campaign already well underway, Scholz told MPs during a three-hour debate that the election would determine whether “we, as a strong country, dare to invest strongly in our future”. He asked:
“Do we have confidence in ourselves and our country, or do we put our future on the line? Do we risk our cohesion and our prosperity by delaying long-overdue investments?”
Even at this early stage in the campaign, Scholz's SDP is trailing heavily in opinion polls. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) under Friedrich Merz appears to be on course for a return to government.
